RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the Mayakoba Classic. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Welcome back RotoBaller PGA family! I hope you all had a wonderful Thankgiving. The holiday - like this year's golf season - was probably a little different than normal, but hopefully still unique and wonderful in its own way.
While we're really just getting the 2020-21 PGA Tour "season" officially kicked off, this week's Mayakoba Classic feels a lot like an ending, as it's the last event of 2020 that we'll be covering. It's been a crazy year in tons of ways, but especially in our little PGA DFS corner of the world, as we went from zero golf, to covering the Outlaw Tour (crazy, but fun!), to resuming play on the PGA Tour with a jampacked and awesome schedule of events with elite fields. On behalf of the crew here at RotoBaller, let me give a huge "Thanks" to all of you guys for going on this ride with us and say that we look forward to seeing you again in January! All that said, we're not done with 2020 just yet...let's tee it up for Mayakoba!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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Mayakoba Classic Overview
We're set to close 2020 out this week with the Mayakoba Classic, the first event in Mexico to appear regularly on the PGA Tour schedule and a tournament that's become a fixture on the "Fall Swing" calendar.
Like many events this season, this week's Mayakoba field is stronger than we normally see. Elite stars like Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, and Tony Finau are all set to tee it up in Mexico, with a strong class of players like Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Viktor Hovland, and Harris English comprising a second tier of high-end talent. In addition to the influx of new talent, last year's Mayakoba Classic champion, Brendon Todd, will be back to defend his title.
All in all, this field is tremendous for a fall event and is a really cool way to close out the year. We'll have no shortage of DFS options on this slate. Remember, this article is sort of a "first look" at the week and highlights players with strong course history on this layout...history that some of this field's most elite players don't have. So, make sure and check out all the other articles available at RotoBaller throughout the week for our favorite overall DFS plays!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: El Camaleon GC
Par 71 - 7,017 Yards, Greens: Paspalum, Designed By: Greg Norman
If Brendon Todd's win last year isn't a good enough indicator, let me be clear: distance doesn't matter on this golf course. Yes, players can go low here, but they will need to consistently hit fairways and greens to do it. In other words, it's something of a "plodders paradise", as you'll notice when looking at the list of recent champions below. A 2006 Greg Norman design, El Camaleon is a unique course that takes advantage of a beautiful and interesting natural landscape. It is perhaps most famous for its "sinkholes" that can give golfers fits. This is a short course by modern standards, but not one that can be easily overpowered. Accuracy off the tee is crucial and we will see lots of players hitting less than driver this week. Ball striking will also be at a premium at El Camaleon in order to find fairways and greens in what is typically windy coastline conditions. A hot putter never hurts and that is again the case this week on a Seashore Paspalum putting surface that we basically never see on the PGA Tour. I'll be targeting accurate ball strikers who are capable of working their way around this course with precision and getting in a groove with the flatstick.
Recent Champions & Winning Scores
- Brendon Todd (-20)
- Matt Kuchar (-22)
- Patton Kizzire (-19)
- Pat Perez (-21)
- Graeme McDowell (-18)
The Horse
Abraham Ancer
DraftKings: $9,900
FanDuel: $11,100
Notable Course History: T8 (2020 Season), T21 ('19), T9 ('18), T55 ('17)
Lots of factors come together to lead me to Abraham Ancer as this week's "Horse". Ancer is a native of Mexico, has a very solid track record at El Camaleon, and has been in sharp form as of late.
He heads to Mayakoba - a tournament where he's posted top-10 finishes in two of the last three years - off a very impressive performance at the Masters. The 29-year-old was in serious contention in his Augusta National debut, but a final-round 76 dropped him into a T13 finish. It was the latest in a string of good outings for Ancer, who also posted a top-five at the Shriners last month.
His past success on this El Camaleon layout can be attributed to his steady precision both off the tee and on approach. He grades out eighth in this week's field in Fairways Gained and 11th Good Drives Gained, while coming in 14th in Greens In Regulation Gained. Ancer's relative lack of length won't be a detriment this week and he'll be able to rely on his accuracy. He's been knocking on the door of a win for the last couple of years and he could very well score his first victory on the PGA Tour this week in his home country.
The Ponies
Harris English
DraftKings: $10,100
FanDuel: $11,500
Notable Course History: 5th ('20), T68 ('19), Win ('13)
Consistency is the word that comes to mind when discussing Harris English. The former Georgia Bulldog has been the picture of it over the past year, making the cut in 20 of 25 starts with six top-10 finishes among those.
English heads to Mayakoba in sparkling form (of course), having posted top-10s in two of his four starts since a top-five performance at the U.S. Open in September. The 31-year-old has gained strokes T2G in a hard-to-fathom 12 of 14 tournaments since the restart.
In addition to his rock-solid form, English also possesses a strong track record at El Camaleon. He won this event in 2013 at 21-under par and posted a fifth-place finish on this layout last year. The sum of his game is greater than any of the individual parts, which means English is simply very good in every facet. He’s a tremendous option this week.
Emiliano Grillo
DraftKings: $8,300
FanDuel: $9,900
Notable Course History: T41 ('20), 15th ('19), T9 ('18), T10 ('17)
If you guys play PGA DFS regularly, you probably know what you're getting when you click Emiliano Grillo's name. The man from Argentina is one of the most maddening players on the PGA Tour when it comes to DFS. He's unbelievably volatile, yet always seem to grade out wonderfully. He's one of the best pure ball strikers in the game, yet one of the absolute worst putters on the planet. He is capable of winning tournaments, yet can just as easily miss cut after cut.
I say all this in an attempt to express that Grillo should not be considered a "safe" play in any form or fashion. However, this might be one of those weeks that it's worth embracing the volatility with him in pursuit of his upside. His track record at Mayakoba is very strong - he's made four-straight cuts with two top-10s - and he's looked solid in the new season, making the cut in six of his last seven starts with two top-25s among those.
Another reason I'm interested in Grillo might be a stretch, but is intriguing nonetheless...Paspalum greens. It's a surface we rarely see on the PGA Tour, with Mayakoba, Corales, and the Puerto Rico Open being the only regular Tour stops with Paspalum greens. Grillo is a notoriously-horrible putter, but he's historically played well here, logged a T21 recently at Corales, and scored a third-place finish in the Puerto Rico Open earlier this year. Maybe Paspalum is the secret code to unlocking his putter?
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Scott Piercy
DraftKings: $7,900
FanDuel: $9,700
Notable Course History: T26 ('20), T6 ('19), T4 ('17)
Another veteran that fits the mold at Mayakoba. Scott Piercy is an unquestionably-streaky player, but the veteran has been consistent over recent three trips to El Camaleon, going T26-T6-T4 since 2017.
In addition to the great course history, Piercy heads to Mexico in rather sharp form at the moment. The veteran has made the cut in each of his last five starts with three top-20 finishes among those results. He’s gained strokes T2G in each of his last five and grades out 14th in this week’s field in SG: T2G over the last 12 rounds. Piercy has the ability both to make birdies (25th in the field Birdies or Better Gained) and dodge big numbers (sixth in field Bogeys Avoided).
Russell Knox
DraftKings: $7,700
FanDuel: $9,600
Notable Course History: T33 ('20), T9 ('18), 3rd ('17), T2 ('16)
It's tough to talk about course history at Mayakoba and not touch on Russell Knox, a player that's been a true "Course Horse" at El Camaleon, and has posted a third and a T2 over his last four starts on this layout.
The once-dependable Knox has been anything but over the past year or so, missing a ridiculous 10-straight cuts at one point in 2020. However, he's slowly been turning things around as of late and has flashed some form over recent starts by logging a top-10 at the Safeway Open and top-16 finishes in both Bermuda and Houston since October. For years, Knox made his living on the strength of his iron play and he's looked more like himself lately, gaining strokes on Approach in four consecutive starts and in seven of his last eight outings.
Brian Gay
DraftKings: $7,500
FanDuel: $9,400
Notable Course History: T14 ('20), T41 ('19), T25 ('18), T28 ('17), Win ('08)
Is Brian Gay the “King of the Short Track”? It’s a fair question to ask after the light-hitting veteran conquered the field at the Bermuda Championship in early November at the age of 48. Unsurprisingly, Gay has also fared well in previous trips to this short, manageable El Camaleon layout, winning this event way back in 2008 and making the cut in his last four trips to Mayakoba, with two top-25s among those starts.
His statistics and results aren’t going to look great overall, but Gay is very tough to judge because his game only translates to certain (short) layouts. He’s historically played very well during the Fall Season due to the courses on the schedule and I expect him to once again put forth a solid outing this week on a track that’s just over 7,000 yards.
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