Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - 2024 THE PLAYERS Championship

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2024 THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

As we highlighted in this article last week, Scottie Scheffler is always just a decent putting week away from winning. A switch to a Taylor Made Spider putter paid off in a big way for the Texan at Bay Hill, as Scheffler cruised to a victory in the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday (which my RotoBaller colleague Spencer Aguiar called, btw).

While drama was in short supply in the final round of the API, we did finally get the sort of star power on the leaderboard that we've been clamoring for this year. Perhaps the World No. 1's win can serve as a soft reset on what's been an underwhelming start to the year. There's a good chance that we see more firepower at the top of the leaderboard for THE PLAYERS Championship this week.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship infamously stands as golf's "fifth major" thanks to its star-studded field and iconic TPC Sawgrass venue. In addition to being a huge event, THE PLAYERS also serves as a nice annual checkpoint to evaluate the state of the game. As we enter the 2024 edition, it's safe to say that professional golf is in a very different place than it was a year ago, with the morale of golf fans taking an almost 180-degree turn in comparison to the excitement level surrounding the game just 12 months ago.

Scottie Scheffler's win last week in a Signature Event will help stop the bleeding on what's been an abysmal start to the year for the PGA Tour, although it doesn't completely erase what's been a steady stream of problems for the sport in 2024. The Tour has dealt with weather issues, forgettable leaderboards, a suddenly noticeable lack of depth, and an overall lack of excitement about the product over the first two-plus months of the year. Despite all the billions of dollars that have been poured into the creation of LIV, the upstart league certainly isn't "winning" vs. the PGA Tour, but it's fair to wonder if the entire sport of golf is losing simply because of the environment the fight has created.

This week, all the pieces will be in place to put on a great show and perhaps continue the slight momentum that Scheffler's API win might have kickstarted. The talented Texan is the defending PLAYERS champion and a prohibitive favorite to repeat after his performance at Bay Hill. Scheffler will face a stacked field of the usual suspects including McIlroy, Thomas, Hovland, and more... all of whom want to add this prestigious title to their resume.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: TPC Sawgrass

Par 72 - 7,256 Yards, Greens: Bermuda (Poa & Bent Overseed), Designed By: Pete Dye

At just over 7,200 yards, the Stadium Course is much shorter than most other "major championship" courses these golfers will face, but what it lacks in length, it makes up for in bite. The Pete Dye design that opened in 1982 has endured as one of the trickiest courses in the world. In true Dye fashion, it's a second-shot golf course with danger lurking everywhere in the form of water hazards and bunkers.

This layout was specifically designed to not favor any one style of play, so we see holes of varying length in Par 3's, 4's, and 5's, doglegs that go both left and right, with no two consecutive holes playing in the same direction. THE PLAYERS' most iconic hole is, of course, the Par-3 17th 'Island Hole'. The 17th is short, but its psychological impact on players in key moments can certainly make it difficult. A recent update to TPC Sawgrass now has the 12th hole playing as a driveable Par-4 with water in play to raise the risk/reward stakes.

With TPC Sawgrass being such a balanced course, it's tough to give the edge to one type of player this week. While we can normally classify courses as a 'bomber' track or an 'accuracy' layout, we have no such luxury this week. I'm targeting ball strikers with strong approach games that are solid from tee to green. I will also consider a player's short game strength and ability to avoid bogeys, as big numbers are seemingly lurking everywhere at TPC Sawgrass. It's always hard to predict putting, but this week's winner will need to get hot with the flat stick on these fast Bermuda grass greens. I will also lean towards those in the field that have some PLAYERS experience, as this track can be brutal on first-timers.

Recent PLAYERS Winners & Scoring Info

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
• 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
• 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
• 2020: Cancelled - COVID
• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)

The Horse

Justin Thomas

We all know of JT's 2023 struggles, but he's put a lot of distance between himself and last year's disappointing campaign over the first couple of months of 2024. A shockingly bad outing at Genesis aside, Thomas has gained strokes T2G, OTT, APP, & ATG in all four of his other starts this year, including last week's API, where he flirted with contention on Sunday while gaining 2.6 strokes with the irons for the week.

It's notoriously difficult to find consistency at TPC Sawgrass, yet Thomas has never missed a cut in eight PLAYERS appearances. The two-time major champion's throwback shot-making ability led to a PLAYERS victory in 2021, as well as T3 in 2016. While he still needs to clean up some things off the tee, his game seems most of the way back. Thomas will be highly motivated to cement his return to elite status this week.

The Ponies

Max Homa

We're normally focused on Homa's West Coast dominance, but he's quietly put together very encouraging results in the state of Florida in recent years. In addition to his strong outings in the API - where he recorded a T8 last week and finished T17 or better in each of the last two years - Homa has quickly shown an affinity for TPC Sawgrass.

Like many golfers do, Homa missed the cut in his PLAYERS debut two years ago. However, the Californian has found a high level of success on Pete Dye's diabolical layout on his two return trips, logging a T13 in 2022 and a T6 in last year's edition. Some will view Homa's mediocre statistical 2024 output as a reason to find other options in this stacked field, but I'm actually sort of encouraged by his ability to put up solid finishes on tough tracks such as Torrey, Riviera, and Bay Hill without his best stuff.

Homa appears very comfortable at TPC Sawgrass - which certainly can't be said for everyone - and could be a true dark horse this week if the ball striking starts clicking at a higher level.

Hideki Matsuyama

The Japanese superstar stole one at Riviera last month thanks to the sort of explosiveness in his game that few golfers possess. Perhaps his Genesis Invitational victory kickstarted something that's been lying dormant over the past year or so. Matsuyama again looked sharp last week at Bay Hill, gaining just over three strokes on Approach and standing in fourth place through 54 holes before ultimately settling for a T12 in the API.

He now brings that trending form to a TPC Sawgrass venue where he's historically performed at a high level. Without even getting into his beautiful opening-round 63 in the 2020 edition that was canceled due to COVID, his past PLAYERS results are impressive and include three top-eight finishes and three top-25s across eight career starts.

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Shane Lowry

Though Lowry's PLAYERS CV contains three missed cuts across his first five career starts at TPC Sawgrass, the Irishman has settled in nicely at the Pete Dye layout in recent years by going T35-T13-8th across his last three PLAYERS appearances. He's gained an eye-popping 21.7 combined strokes T2G in this event over the last three years.

Lowry will look to keep his high level of play at Sawgrass going this week and his recent form indicates he's in a terrific position to do so. Following a rather sleepy start to the year on some West Coast venues that don't necessarily suit his strengths, the former Champion Golfer of the Year has found a lovely groove in the environment of tougher Florida courses with a pair of top-four finishes in his recent starts in the Sunshine State. Lowry's iron play has been white-hot, as he's gained an average of +5.25 strokes on Approach over his last two tournaments.

Tom Hoge

The TPC Sawgrass course record doesn't belong to a Woods, a Mickelson, or a Nicklaus...it resides with a Hoge. The 34-year-old everyman fired a jaw-dropping 62 in last year's PLAYERS, besting the previous low-round record of 63 that nine players shared. While it was certainly an extraordinary round, it wasn't exactly a fluke for Tom Hoge, who has quietly never missed a cut in five career PLAYERS starts and overcame an ugly opening-round 78 to score a career-best T3 result in last year's edition.

The Fargo, North Dakota resident will look to play his sixth straight weekend at Sawgrass on the strength of his recently-elite approach play. Hoge has gained strokes with the irons in every one of his 2024 starts and his output has noticeably spiked across his last three outings, as he's gained +6.8 (T8 at Genesis), +4.6 (T28 Cognizant), and +8.2 (T12 API) on Approach over the past month. While Scottie Scheffler's win last week paused the "underdog narrative" a bit, Hoge is a dark horse worth keeping an eye at THE PLAYERS.

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