RADIO
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! It's the week we've all been waiting for...Masters Week! If you are a golf fan, this is your Christmas, your gift for surviving the winter cold, your annual signal that it's time to knock the cobwebs off your clubs and prepare to hit the course. It's a perfect week. And, oh by the way, there's also HUGE, life-changing DFS contests galore!
I can't wait to dive into the Masters with you guys. But first, let me remind you that this is just the beginning of RotoBaller's Masters coverage for the week! We have an amazing PGA DFS team that will be hard at work to bring you the best DFS, gambling, & statistical analysis in the world over the next few days.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2022 Masters Overview
Sometimes I feel as though I've used every superlative in the dictionary to describe the Masters over the years. Tradition. Excitement. Class. Mystique. They all apply.
While the other three major championships are obviously huge events, there's just something about the tradition and mystique of the Masters that makes it different. The Masters is the most unique of the major championships in that it's played on the same golf course every year. As a result, we have tons of course history to evaluate for most players in the field...a statement that is music to our ears when it comes to this article! In fact, even if you aren't normally a "course history believer", I would strongly encourage you to take it into account this week, as I genuinely believe that course history at Augusta National is crucial to evaluating players on this particular DFS slate.
I normally use this section of the article to break down what type of field we'll be dealing with on any given week. Let me give you the Cliffs Notes version for the Masters: IT'S ELITE. Both in the caliber of players and in the actual number of golfers that will be teeing it up. Like Augusta National Golf Club itself, this field is super exclusive and one of the toughest invites to grab in golf. Outside of former champions - who are welcome for life - getting into the Masters is a huge accomplishment for even the best players in the world. As a result, this field is often very small in comparison to normal events, with this year's count currently coming in at 90 if we're counting you know who. What does that mean from a DFS perspective? Well, a smaller field (especially one that includes a handful of largely-ceremonial former winners and amateurs) equates to a larger percentage of those teeing it up making the 36-hole cut. This should lead us to be both aggressive and mindful of upside when constructing our lineups this week.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Augusta National Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,510 Yards, Greens: Bent, Designed By: Bobby Jones & Alister Mackenzie
The brainchild of the legendary Bobby Jones, in concert with Alister Mackenzie, Augusta National was built on a 365-acre property that had been Fruitland Nurseries. Jones imparted all his wisdom on the layout that would eventually become the most famous golf course in the world. The condition of the course is IMMACULATE, with not as much as a young azalea out of place.
Augusta National is a Par 72 that has now been stretched out to over 7,500 yards, thanks to some yardage that was added to holes No. 11 & No. 14 this year. The legendary layout tests every facet of a player's game. Distance off the tee is a huge advantage at Augusta National, as it is crucial for players to take advantage of the four Par-5s. Precision on approach shots with your irons, creativity with your short game, and the possession of nerves of steel on the lightning-fast greens are also needed. Piece of cake, right?
Perhaps nearly as important as being able to actually hit the shots, is knowing what type of shots to hit and where to hit them. Course experience isn't an absolute must to play well at Augusta, but we see time and again how big of an asset course knowledge and experience can be in the Masters. Perhaps more than any other course we see on the schedule, this layout is full of nuances and subtleties that even the best players in the world must learn in order to succeed. The preferred ball flight is right-to-left (a draw for right-handed players) off the tee and a high cut on approach shots into the greens. Golfers must also be able to handle the drastic undulations and slopes, as they will rarely be faced with a shot from a flat lie. While there is obviously more than one way to skin a cat, we've seen players that can hit those shots repeatedly succeed over the years.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Masters Winners
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
- 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
- 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
Event Notes
- Hideki Matsuyama became the first male major champion from Japan with his win last year.
- Xander Schauffele's triple bogey on No. 16 last year was the first one of his career in a major championship.
- Only four players have won the Masters before turning 25-years-old (Woods, Spieth, Ballesteros, & Nicklaus).
- No player has won in their Masters debut since 1979 (Zoeller).
- Sergio Garcia holds the record for the number of Masters appearances before a win with 19.
The Horse
Cameron Smith
- Masters Scoring Average: 71.50
- Notable Course History: T10 (2021), T2 ('20), T51 ('19), T5 ('18)
- DraftKings Price: $9.9k FanDuel Price: $11.2k
While I certainly believe that you can learn to play Augusta over multiple appearances, in my gut I also feel like there's a little bit of a you either have it or you don't aspect when it comes to this golf course.
Cameron Smith has it and it almost seems like he was born to play at Augusta National, a golf course where his major weaknesses are muted, while his strengths are allowed to shine. The Aussie has a tendency to spray his driver - he grades out just 86th in this field in Fairways Gained over his last 24 rounds - but he can generally get away with those misses at Augusta National. Inversely, he absolutely feasts on Par-5s (fourth in field SG: Par-5s last 50 rounds), has an otherworldly short game that allows him to get up and down from anywhere, and is also perhaps the best putter in the world at the moment...all traits that are needed to find success at Augusta National.
It's not a surprise that Smith has shined on this layout that emphasizes those strengths, while masking his big weakness. Since getting his feet wet with a T55 in his Masters debut in 2016, the Aussie has been a force in subsequent trips down Magnolia Lane, posting a T5 in 2018 before becoming the first player in Masters history to post four sub-70 rounds en route to a runner-up result in the November '20 edition, and again impressing last year with a T10.
While Smith would be squarely on my radar this week regardless of his recent form, the mulleted one heads to Augusta with his game in white-hot shape. He stared down Jon Rahm to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first event of the year and most recently displayed both his explosiveness and toughness with a Monday win in a rain-soaked Players Championship.
The Ponies
Scottie Scheffler
- Masters Scoring Average: 71.13
- Notable Course History: T18 ('21), T19 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $11k FanDuel Price: $11.6k
Scottie Scheffler heads into the year's first major in nuclear form and with a shiny new title of "The No. 1 Player in the World". Scheffler has won in three of his last five starts (WMPO, API, & Dell Match Play), defeating elite fields along the way.
This will mark the 26-year-old's third career Masters appearance and he's already shown an affinity for Augusta National by recording top-20s in each of his first two go-rounds. The combination of his elite length off the tee, solid iron play, and sneaky-good short game make him tailor-made for this golf course. While there might be some sticker shock that comes with Scheffler's placement atop the salary scale, his current form and obvious course fit at Augusta more than justify the price tag.
Jon Rahm
- Masters Scoring Average: 70.30
- Notable Course History: T5 ('21), T7 ('20), T9 ('19), 4th ('18), T27 ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $10.8k FanDuel Price: $12.1k
Since a T27 in his 2017 debut as an amateur, Rahm has recorded a pair of top-fives and two top-10s in his four subsequent Masters appearances. He's been consistently elite from a ball-striking perspective this year and ranks first in this Masters field in SG: Ball Striking over his last 24 measured rounds. However, his normally-sturdy short game has betrayed him in a big way in 2022, as Rahm has now lost strokes around the green in each of his last six starts. This is surely a legitimate concern this week on an Augusta National course that places so much emphasis on touch around the green. That being said, with a career Masters scoring average of 70.30 that stands as the lowest among this week's entrants with at least two appearances, the Spaniard has displayed a level of elite consistency in this event. He'll be ready to play.
Brooks Koepka
- Masters Scoring Average: 71.41
- Notable Course History: MC ('21), T7 ('20), T2 ('19), T11 ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $9.4k FanDuel Price: $10.9k
After an extended period of battling injuries - including in last year's Masters - Koepka finished 2021 strong by recording top-six results in the year's last three major championships. We can take his results in "regular" PGA Tour events with a grain of salt, but he has appeared a bit more motivated in his 2022 starts and has gained over five strokes T2G in three of his appearances this year.
As for Augusta National, it's a nice fit. Before his missed cut in last year's edition - which we can chalk up to him not being fully healthy - Koepka had played the weekend in all five of his career starts in the Masters, with four top-25s and a runner-up in 2019 standing as the highlight. The combination of his sub-$10k price tag, his major championship resume, and encouraging form makes him one of my favorite DFS options on the board this week.
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Tony Finau
- Masters Scoring Average: 70.63
- Notable Course History: T10 ('21), T38 ('20), T5 ('19), T10 ('18)
- DraftKings Price: $8.1k FanDuel Price: $10.9k
Many Finau fans hoped for the "floodgates" to open after his long-awaited victory in the Northern Trust late last season, but Big Tony has actually been going in the opposite direction this year, with his lone top-25 coming in the limited-field Sentry Tournament of Champions in January. It's not difficult to pinpoint the source of his struggles, as prior to the Valero Texas Open he'd lost strokes both on and around the green in four straight (he gained strokes putting at TPC San Antonio). While there are form concerns, Finau has been excellent at Augusta National, with a top-five and a pair of top-10s across his four career Masters starts. He's one of just five players in this week's field with a sub-71 career scoring average at Augusta National. His length off the tee and overall ball-striking ability give him a big leg-up on this golf course. Considering the public sentiment is lower on Finau than it's maybe ever been, this is certainly an interesting "buy low" spot.
Russell Henley
- Masters Scoring Average: 72.28
- Notable Course History: T15 ('18), T11 ('17), T21 ('15), T31 ('14)
- DraftKings Price: $7.8k FanDuel Price: TBD
Playing some of the best golf of his career, Henley has hung tough since dropping a heartbreaker to Hideki Matsuyama at the Sony Open to start the year. The Georgia Bulldog has gained strokes T2G in every start of 2022 with four top-15 finishes in addition to the aforementioned runner-up result at Waialae. His most recent stroke-play start at The Players was especially impressive, as he actually led the field in SG: Approach (+11.5) for the week.
If the form isn't impressive enough, Henley's also been phenomenal in previous, albeit sporadic, trips to Augusta National. He hasn't made the drive down Magnolia Lane since 2018 but has recorded top-25s in each of his last three Masters starts. I feel he's a legitimate dark horse candidate this week. Weirdly, Henley hasn't been included on the FanDuel salary scale as of this writing, so we'll keep an eye out during the week for his price tag over there.
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