X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 9)

Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 9 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're halfway through the fantasy football season, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The Rams and Vikings have two running backs that dominate the backfield opportunities. That's especially true inside the 10-yard line, with Kyren Williams rushing three times and Aaron Jones at two in Week 8. Jones garnered an 86.4 percent rush share, with Williams at 71.9 percent. Meanwhile, Williams bests Jones in targets (Seven vs. two) and target share (20.6 percent vs. eight percent).

The visual below shows the Week 8 leaders sorted by rush yards inside the 10.

Williams continues to be one of the league leaders in rush attempts inside the 10, accounting for 84.6 percent of the team's carries inside the five. Besides Najee Harris, Jones has been one of two rushers garnering 10 or more carries inside the 10 with only one touchdown near the goal line.  

We had four rushers with four or more carries inside the 10 in Week 8, and only one didn't score a touchdown. That's Alexander Mattison, who had four carries for negative four yards.

Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt maintained his role as the primary Chiefs' running back, garnering 21 carries and accounting for 72.4 percent of the team's rush attempts. Unfortunately, Hunt was inefficient, with 59 rushing yards, but the high-value touches boosted his expected fantasy points to 19.5. Besides Hunt's inefficiencies, we can't complain about the opportunities and role.

Raheem Mostert stole goal-line rushes from De'Von Achane. Mostert saw five of his nine carries inside the 10, scoring on two. That's likely unsustainable for Mostert, though he shared the backfield rush share (36 percent) with Achane (40 percent).

Achane showed us the high-end fantasy-friendly role via the passing game, finishing second on the team in targets (eight) and target share (21.1 percent) with Tua Tagovailoa back. Expect some touchdown regression in favor of Achane.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders sorted by rush attempts inside the 10.

Jalen Hurts, and the tush push highlighted the Eagles' rushing game against the Bengals. Hurts scored three times on four carries inside the 10, accounting for 60 percent of the team attempts inside the five in Week 8. Here's a wild stat comparing Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

Hurts has 12 carries inside the 10 with seven touchdowns (58.3 percent) compared to Barkley, garnering 13 attempts with three scores (39.1 percent). Furthermore, Hurts has 11 carries inside the five with six touchdowns, and Barkley has nine carries with three scores. Inside the one-yard line, Hurts has nine rush attempts with all six scores, and Barkley's carries drop to two with zero touchdowns.

Let's hope Hurts doesn't keep stealing short-yardage and high-value rush attempts for scores from Barkley. Or maybe regression hits, and Barkley scores more inside the five and 10-yard line since Hurts takes nearly all within one yard of the goal line. 

The Bills projected as a run funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most adjusted yards before contact while running two-high safety coverage at the fourth-highest rate. We can't blame the rainy weather since James Cook exploded for 111 rushing yards and two scores. However, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, who accounted for 16 combined rushing yards on 12 attempts, feel like an outlier performance.

The theme of Week 8 seems to be rushing regression since Walker and Charbonnet had three carries each inside the ten, though Charbonnet was the only one who scored.

 

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Welcome back to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua! Kupp had two targets inside the 10 in Week 8, scoring on one of them. Meanwhile, Nacua had zero targets inside the 10 against the Vikings yet led the team with 106 receiving yards on nine targets (26.5 percent) compared to Kupp at 51 on eight opportunities (23.5 percent).

The visual below shows the receiving leaders sorted by targets inside the 10 in Week 8.

Nacua edged Kupp in first-read target share in Week 8, with Nacua at 35 percent compared to Kupp at 30 percent. Having Kupp and Nacua healthy is positive for the Rams' offense because it boosts the already consolidated offense, which we appreciate for fantasy purposes.

We had 12 pass catchers with two or more targets inside the 10, including a few notable players like Michael Wilson, Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, and Cade Otton.

Wilson has four games with fewer than five targets and four with more than a handful. Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. headlined the Cardinals' offense, but Wilson showed up somewhat in Week 8 against the Dolphins. It's probably noisy while James Conner is healthy, but Harrison has four targets inside the 10, with Wilson at three.

Admittedly, Coleman hasn't garnered my additional attention, but he had an explosive reception and a contested catch for a score after a pass breakup by Tariq Woolen. The Bills would prefer to run the ball near the endzone, with Cook having nine carries and Josh Allen with six inside the 10 on the season.

For context, Coleman leads the Bills with four targets inside the 10, with Dalton Kincaid at three. Regardless of Coleman's high-value targets in Week 8, he ranked 11th in expected fantasy points, 31st in first-read target share, and 15th in air yards share. From Weeks 1-7, Coleman ranked 87th in expected fantasy points, which accounts for usage and possibly a positive trend.

McConkey had a juicy matchup, which we covered in the Week 8 WR/CB matchup column. The Saints ran the 10th-highest most man coverage, and McConkey crushed against man. Add in the Chargers' throwing more off in neutral game scripts, and we saw an increase in pass volume.

Though the Chargers love establishing the run, McConkey leads the team with six targets inside the ten, with Hayden Hurst in second with two. The buying window for McConkey may have closed.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders sorted by targets inside the 10.

It has to be a typo if Worthy garnered two targets inside the 10-yard line, tying with Travis Kelce in Week 8. Worthy and Kelce scored one touchdown, with the tight end dominating the games on National Tight End Day.

The rookie saw the second-most targets (8) and target share (21.1 percent) on the team behind Kelce. Worthy sneakily ranks 15th in expected fantasy points (16.4), 12th in first-read target share (34.2 percent), and 11th in air yards share (44.3 percent) in Weeks 7-8.

That's much better than Worthy's role in Weeks 1-6, evidenced by ranking 79th in expected fantasy points (8.5), 65th in first-read target share (18.9 percent), and 43rd in air yards share (27.2 percent).

Stock up for Worthy based on the role, even without the high-value targets. That means we'll want to buy into him being more involved in the offense since DeAndre Hopkins will complement and not eat into Worthy's role and usage.

The question heading into Week 8 surrounded which Buccaneers receiver would benefit from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injured. It's only one week, but it looked murky. Otton led the team in targets (10) and target share (20 percent), with the running backs involved often. Bucky Irving had seven targets (14 percent target share), with Rachaad White at six (12 percent target share).

Though Jalen McMillan had seven targets (14 percent), Otton had a team-high 30.3 percent first-read target share. Maybe it's a one-week blip, but Otton leading the team in raw targets, first-read opportunities, and endzone looks in Week 8 may be a trend without Evans and Godwin. On the season, Otton ranks ninth in expected fantasy points, indicating TE1 usage.

 

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

Once again, the leaders in targets and target share on third and fourth downs highlight fun names. That includes Mike Gesicki (6), Malik Nabers (6),  Zay Flowers (5), Otton (5), Cedric Tillman (5), Calvin Ridley (5), Tyreek Hill (4), and several others tied with four.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders on third and fourth downs sorted by targets (minimum three or more) in Week 8.

With Tee Higgins injured, Joe Burrow looked toward Gesicki six times on third and fourth downs, accounting for 75 percent of his eight targets in Week 8. Gesicki led the Bengals in receiving yards yet trailed Ja'Marr Chase in receptions (nine) and targets (11). Before Week 8, Gesicki had four consecutive games with three or fewer targets, so it's likely noisy.

Tillman might've won weeks for fantasy managers, with the fourth-most PPR (28.9). Thank you, Jameis Winston, for boosting up the Browns' offense. However, we'll note Tillman finished second on the team in first-read target share (23.5 percent) behind Elijah Moore (29.4 percent). Moore notably had four targets on third and fourth downs, showing Winston trusted his receivers in crucial situations.

In 56 dropbacks, Winston ranks 12th in completion rate over expected (3.4 percent) and 32nd in catchable target rate (71.7 percent). Though Deshaun Watson's catchable target rate bested Winston at 75.9 percent (No. 20), Watson ranked 29th with a zero percentage completion rate over expected.

The visual below shows the quarterback leaders in several metrics, sorted by the players with the highest first-read pass attempts in Weeks 1-8, highlighting Winston.

The other main difference with Winston involves his 2.37 time to throw compared to Watson at 2.76. Sometimes, mobile quarterbacks like Watson can have a longer time to throw, so there's some noise. However, when we pair time to throw with first reads, Winston threw toward his first read 81.1 percent of the time compared to Watson at 69.4 percent.

The visual below shows the wide receivers and tight ends with the worst fantasy points over expected with a minimum of 25 routes run. This list shows us potential regression candidates or trade targets.

Ridley looked like a buy-low because he was one of the players with a drastic difference in expected versus actual fantasy points. Before Week 8, Ridley ranked 197th in fantasy points over expected and No. 48 in expected fantasy points. In Week 8, Ridley had the second-highest expected fantasy points behind CeeDee Lamb, teasing us at his high-end upside.

The Titans project to have the best strength of schedule for wide receivers, so fantasy managers might want to hold or buy high if you're looking to roll the dice with a team headed by Mason Rudolph and Will Levis.

We'll close out with the season-long receiving leaders in target share on third and fourth downs with a minimum of five targets.

We saw Ridley and Josh Downs explode in Week 8. Keenan Allen notably has a high target share on third and fourth downs, but the raw targets rank middle of the pack. Allen ranks second on the Bears in expected fantasy points among their receivers behind D.J. Moore.

The Bears have the fifth-best strength of schedule for receivers, so maybe there's a buying opportunity for Allen or Rome Odunze since they've seen their value sink in recent weeks. However, the Bears don't have a consolidated passing offense, with Moore and Allen garnering a 25 percent target share and Odunze at 17 percent on a team tied for 21st in neutral script pass rate (51 percent).



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF