X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 9)

Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 9 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're halfway through the fantasy football season, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The Rams and Vikings have two running backs that dominate the backfield opportunities. That's especially true inside the 10-yard line, with Kyren Williams rushing three times and Aaron Jones at two in Week 8. Jones garnered an 86.4 percent rush share, with Williams at 71.9 percent. Meanwhile, Williams bests Jones in targets (Seven vs. two) and target share (20.6 percent vs. eight percent).

The visual below shows the Week 8 leaders sorted by rush yards inside the 10.

Williams continues to be one of the league leaders in rush attempts inside the 10, accounting for 84.6 percent of the team's carries inside the five. Besides Najee Harris, Jones has been one of two rushers garnering 10 or more carries inside the 10 with only one touchdown near the goal line.  

We had four rushers with four or more carries inside the 10 in Week 8, and only one didn't score a touchdown. That's Alexander Mattison, who had four carries for negative four yards.

Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt maintained his role as the primary Chiefs' running back, garnering 21 carries and accounting for 72.4 percent of the team's rush attempts. Unfortunately, Hunt was inefficient, with 59 rushing yards, but the high-value touches boosted his expected fantasy points to 19.5. Besides Hunt's inefficiencies, we can't complain about the opportunities and role.

Raheem Mostert stole goal-line rushes from De'Von Achane. Mostert saw five of his nine carries inside the 10, scoring on two. That's likely unsustainable for Mostert, though he shared the backfield rush share (36 percent) with Achane (40 percent).

Achane showed us the high-end fantasy-friendly role via the passing game, finishing second on the team in targets (eight) and target share (21.1 percent) with Tua Tagovailoa back. Expect some touchdown regression in favor of Achane.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders sorted by rush attempts inside the 10.

Jalen Hurts, and the tush push highlighted the Eagles' rushing game against the Bengals. Hurts scored three times on four carries inside the 10, accounting for 60 percent of the team attempts inside the five in Week 8. Here's a wild stat comparing Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

Hurts has 12 carries inside the 10 with seven touchdowns (58.3 percent) compared to Barkley, garnering 13 attempts with three scores (39.1 percent). Furthermore, Hurts has 11 carries inside the five with six touchdowns, and Barkley has nine carries with three scores. Inside the one-yard line, Hurts has nine rush attempts with all six scores, and Barkley's carries drop to two with zero touchdowns.

Let's hope Hurts doesn't keep stealing short-yardage and high-value rush attempts for scores from Barkley. Or maybe regression hits, and Barkley scores more inside the five and 10-yard line since Hurts takes nearly all within one yard of the goal line. 

The Bills projected as a run funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most adjusted yards before contact while running two-high safety coverage at the fourth-highest rate. We can't blame the rainy weather since James Cook exploded for 111 rushing yards and two scores. However, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, who accounted for 16 combined rushing yards on 12 attempts, feel like an outlier performance.

The theme of Week 8 seems to be rushing regression since Walker and Charbonnet had three carries each inside the ten, though Charbonnet was the only one who scored.

 

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Welcome back to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua! Kupp had two targets inside the 10 in Week 8, scoring on one of them. Meanwhile, Nacua had zero targets inside the 10 against the Vikings yet led the team with 106 receiving yards on nine targets (26.5 percent) compared to Kupp at 51 on eight opportunities (23.5 percent).

The visual below shows the receiving leaders sorted by targets inside the 10 in Week 8.

Nacua edged Kupp in first-read target share in Week 8, with Nacua at 35 percent compared to Kupp at 30 percent. Having Kupp and Nacua healthy is positive for the Rams' offense because it boosts the already consolidated offense, which we appreciate for fantasy purposes.

We had 12 pass catchers with two or more targets inside the 10, including a few notable players like Michael Wilson, Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, and Cade Otton.

Wilson has four games with fewer than five targets and four with more than a handful. Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. headlined the Cardinals' offense, but Wilson showed up somewhat in Week 8 against the Dolphins. It's probably noisy while James Conner is healthy, but Harrison has four targets inside the 10, with Wilson at three.

Admittedly, Coleman hasn't garnered my additional attention, but he had an explosive reception and a contested catch for a score after a pass breakup by Tariq Woolen. The Bills would prefer to run the ball near the endzone, with Cook having nine carries and Josh Allen with six inside the 10 on the season.

For context, Coleman leads the Bills with four targets inside the 10, with Dalton Kincaid at three. Regardless of Coleman's high-value targets in Week 8, he ranked 11th in expected fantasy points, 31st in first-read target share, and 15th in air yards share. From Weeks 1-7, Coleman ranked 87th in expected fantasy points, which accounts for usage and possibly a positive trend.

McConkey had a juicy matchup, which we covered in the Week 8 WR/CB matchup column. The Saints ran the 10th-highest most man coverage, and McConkey crushed against man. Add in the Chargers' throwing more off in neutral game scripts, and we saw an increase in pass volume.

Though the Chargers love establishing the run, McConkey leads the team with six targets inside the ten, with Hayden Hurst in second with two. The buying window for McConkey may have closed.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders sorted by targets inside the 10.

It has to be a typo if Worthy garnered two targets inside the 10-yard line, tying with Travis Kelce in Week 8. Worthy and Kelce scored one touchdown, with the tight end dominating the games on National Tight End Day.

The rookie saw the second-most targets (8) and target share (21.1 percent) on the team behind Kelce. Worthy sneakily ranks 15th in expected fantasy points (16.4), 12th in first-read target share (34.2 percent), and 11th in air yards share (44.3 percent) in Weeks 7-8.

That's much better than Worthy's role in Weeks 1-6, evidenced by ranking 79th in expected fantasy points (8.5), 65th in first-read target share (18.9 percent), and 43rd in air yards share (27.2 percent).

Stock up for Worthy based on the role, even without the high-value targets. That means we'll want to buy into him being more involved in the offense since DeAndre Hopkins will complement and not eat into Worthy's role and usage.

The question heading into Week 8 surrounded which Buccaneers receiver would benefit from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injured. It's only one week, but it looked murky. Otton led the team in targets (10) and target share (20 percent), with the running backs involved often. Bucky Irving had seven targets (14 percent target share), with Rachaad White at six (12 percent target share).

Though Jalen McMillan had seven targets (14 percent), Otton had a team-high 30.3 percent first-read target share. Maybe it's a one-week blip, but Otton leading the team in raw targets, first-read opportunities, and endzone looks in Week 8 may be a trend without Evans and Godwin. On the season, Otton ranks ninth in expected fantasy points, indicating TE1 usage.

 

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

Once again, the leaders in targets and target share on third and fourth downs highlight fun names. That includes Mike Gesicki (6), Malik Nabers (6),  Zay Flowers (5), Otton (5), Cedric Tillman (5), Calvin Ridley (5), Tyreek Hill (4), and several others tied with four.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders on third and fourth downs sorted by targets (minimum three or more) in Week 8.

With Tee Higgins injured, Joe Burrow looked toward Gesicki six times on third and fourth downs, accounting for 75 percent of his eight targets in Week 8. Gesicki led the Bengals in receiving yards yet trailed Ja'Marr Chase in receptions (nine) and targets (11). Before Week 8, Gesicki had four consecutive games with three or fewer targets, so it's likely noisy.

Tillman might've won weeks for fantasy managers, with the fourth-most PPR (28.9). Thank you, Jameis Winston, for boosting up the Browns' offense. However, we'll note Tillman finished second on the team in first-read target share (23.5 percent) behind Elijah Moore (29.4 percent). Moore notably had four targets on third and fourth downs, showing Winston trusted his receivers in crucial situations.

In 56 dropbacks, Winston ranks 12th in completion rate over expected (3.4 percent) and 32nd in catchable target rate (71.7 percent). Though Deshaun Watson's catchable target rate bested Winston at 75.9 percent (No. 20), Watson ranked 29th with a zero percentage completion rate over expected.

The visual below shows the quarterback leaders in several metrics, sorted by the players with the highest first-read pass attempts in Weeks 1-8, highlighting Winston.

The other main difference with Winston involves his 2.37 time to throw compared to Watson at 2.76. Sometimes, mobile quarterbacks like Watson can have a longer time to throw, so there's some noise. However, when we pair time to throw with first reads, Winston threw toward his first read 81.1 percent of the time compared to Watson at 69.4 percent.

The visual below shows the wide receivers and tight ends with the worst fantasy points over expected with a minimum of 25 routes run. This list shows us potential regression candidates or trade targets.

Ridley looked like a buy-low because he was one of the players with a drastic difference in expected versus actual fantasy points. Before Week 8, Ridley ranked 197th in fantasy points over expected and No. 48 in expected fantasy points. In Week 8, Ridley had the second-highest expected fantasy points behind CeeDee Lamb, teasing us at his high-end upside.

The Titans project to have the best strength of schedule for wide receivers, so fantasy managers might want to hold or buy high if you're looking to roll the dice with a team headed by Mason Rudolph and Will Levis.

We'll close out with the season-long receiving leaders in target share on third and fourth downs with a minimum of five targets.

We saw Ridley and Josh Downs explode in Week 8. Keenan Allen notably has a high target share on third and fourth downs, but the raw targets rank middle of the pack. Allen ranks second on the Bears in expected fantasy points among their receivers behind D.J. Moore.

The Bears have the fifth-best strength of schedule for receivers, so maybe there's a buying opportunity for Allen or Rome Odunze since they've seen their value sink in recent weeks. However, the Bears don't have a consolidated passing offense, with Moore and Allen garnering a 25 percent target share and Odunze at 17 percent on a team tied for 21st in neutral script pass rate (51 percent).



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF