High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 11)

November 14, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 11 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities" for Week 11 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're nearly a month before the fantasy football playoffs begin, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Austin Ekeler stole the short-yardage role for the Commanders, scoring two touchdowns on his four rush attempts inside the 10-yard line. Jeremy McNichols took one carry inside the 10 for a one-yard touchdown, meaning the running backs scored all three touchdowns in their one-point loss to the Steelers in Week 10.

Touchdowns saved the day for Ekeler, with an inefficient day on the ground, with 44 rushing yards on 13 carries (59.1 percent rush share). Meanwhile, the usage for McNichols tells us his touchdown was fluky in Week 10.

The visual below shows the Week 10 rushing leaders inside the 10.

James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Chuba Hubbard, Najee Harris, and Tyler Allgeier had three carries inside the 10 in Week 10, with Cook, Hubbard, and Harris scoring a touchdown.

Cook has been sharing the snaps with Ray Davis since Week 6, as evidenced by Cook's 41 percent snap share compared to Davis's 30 percent. They've split the rush share (37 percent vs. 33 percent)and targets (seven percent vs. five percent) relatively evenly with an edge to Cook.

In Week 10, Cook garnered the highest snap share (55.4 percent), with Ty Johnson at 30 percent and Davis at 14.9 percent. However, Cook dominated the rush share, as evidenced by his 61.3 percent of the team's carries compared to Josh Allen (25.8 percent) and Davis's lowly 9.7 percent. If Cook can earn 50 percent or more of the team's carries, it should bode well for his floor as an efficient rusher.

Several other rushers had two carries inside the 10, including three quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts, Mac Jones, and Justin Herbert were the three quarterbacks with two rush attempts inside the 10. Jones and Herbert scored one touchdown, with Hurts scoring two, including one quarterback sneak at the goal line and an eight-yard score.

Below, we'll find the season-long rushing leaders inside the 10 from Weeks 1-10.

Hubbard added to his season-long total to rank in the top 10 in attempts inside the 10-yard line. He accounts for 84.6 percent of the team's carries inside the five while ranking 15th in expected fantasy points per game.

We had a brief injury scare for Hubbard in Week 10, but he returned and finished the game. Jonathon Brooks should return in Week 12 after their bye week, and we'll see how much he eats into Hubbard's workload.

Logic would say Brooks shouldn't be rushed into a heavy workload, given the Panthers will be rebuilding their roster, though we could argue his talent should align with Hubbard's expected fantasy points and role in this offense.

Some running backs possibly due for touchdown regression based on their workload inside the 10 include Jordan Mason, Harris, Tank Bigsby, Aaron Jones, Allgeier, and Josh Jacobs. Mason and Bigsby have seen their stock drop, so we can't project those forward.

Meanwhile, Harris and Jones left the game with injuries, and their backfield mates saw more of a workload, specifically Jaylen Warren and Cam Akers, with slightly more intrigue with Warren because of his efficiency and usage.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Ja'Marr Chase and Rashod Bateman had two targets inside the 10, scoring one touchdown each. Chase had his third game with 50 fantasy points in PPR, nearly matching his career best of 55.6 in Week 17 against the Chiefs. Against the Ravens, Chase scored 55.4 PPR, with a career-high in air yards (243), with a previous high of 185 in a game.

Chase has scored 50 fantasy points in PPR scoring three times in his career, making him the only running back, wide receiver, or tight end to reach 50 PPR multiple times since 2010, as seen below.

Bateman led the team in targets (eight) and tied a season-high, with him and Mark Andrews having similar usage based on routes and targets. The production came in Weeks 5-7 with a team-high 16.3 PPR/G ahead of Zay Flowers (15.1).

The visual below shows Bateman's rolling fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G) from 2023 to 2024.

However, this is where we pay attention to expected fantasy points. In Weeks 5-7, Bateman had eight expected fantasy points per game, with eight fantasy points over expected.

That means he was uber-efficient, mainly via his massive 20.8 yards per reception and two touchdowns on 16 targets. We want pieces of an efficient Ravens offense, but we know there will be ups and downs for Bateman and their pass catchers.

The visual below shows the season-long receiving leaders sorted by targets inside the 10, with a minimum of five opportunities.

George Kittle and Amon-Ra St. Brown lead the league in targets inside the 10, scoring touchdowns at a high rate. St. Brown has already exceeded his touchdown total from inside the 10 (three) in 2023, with the fifth-most targets (12). The Lions have been one of the more prolific offenses, ranking second in team rushing touchdowns and eighth in receiving scores.

Meanwhile, Diontae Johnson, Chase, George Pickens, Travis Kelce, and Davante Adams have seven or more targets inside the 10 with two or fewer touchdowns. Pickens seems due for touchdown regression, though we can't complain about his 14.6 expected fantasy points per game, ranking 16th among receivers.

Adams saw a team-high 13 targets, doubling Garrett Wilson's six in Week 10. While Adams earned a season-high in targets, Wilson saw a season-low. The Jets were brutal on offense, averaging a lowly 3.8 yards per play compared to 5.3 across the season.

Since Adams joined the Jets, he and Wilson have shared the opportunities evenly. That's evident in Wilson's slight edge in target share (28 percent vs. 27 percent), with Adams trailing Wilson's air yards share (49 percent) by 18 percentage points in Weeks 7-9.

The visual below shows the Jets receiving leaders in Weeks 7-9 compared to Week 10.

This may have been an outlier game for the Jets' two top receivers because they've been pretty solid in expected fantasy points per game. In Weeks 7-9, Wilson ranked 16th in expected fantasy points (15.7) compared to 19.8 PPR/G, with Adams at 13.3 expected fantasy points (No. 28) and 12.5 PPR/G. After some optimism around the Jets' offense, they plummeted in Week 10, so be cautious.

Third and Fourth-Down Opportunities

Unsurprisingly, Joe Burrow fed Chase the ball when it mattered, including six of his 17 targets on third and fourth downs. Chase caught four of his third and fourth-down targets and scored one of his touchdowns, which came toward the end of the game. Unfortunately, the Bengals couldn't convert the two-point conversion to win a divisional matchup on the road against the Ravens.

The visual below shows the Week 10 receiving leaders in targets on third and fourth downs.

Three of Bateman's eight targets came on third and fourth downs, which might show Lamar Jackson looked his way in critical situations. However, it's worth noting Jackson targeted Justice Hill, Flowers, Andrews, and Tylan Wallace two times each on third and fourth downs in Week 10.

Two of Jackson's four passing touchdowns came on third and fourth downs to Andrews and Wallace. That includes Wallace's game-breaking 84-yard touchdown catch to lead the team with 115 receiving yards, but that's somewhat noisy since he only ran five routes in Week 10.

Burrow targeted Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton thrice on third and fourth downs in Week 10. However, their weekly production came on those targets, which wasn't great for Iosivas (4-2-29) and Burton (5-1-11).

The Bengals ran a ridiculously high 75 plays in Week 10 compared to 60 per game in Weeks 1-9. Burton and Iosivas flashed some sleeper appeal in the past, but their usage doesn't hint at more coming soon.

Two Bears' receivers had five combined targets on third and fourth downs in Rome Odunze (three) and DJ Moore (two). Caleb Williams targeted Odunze, Moore, and Keenan Allen six times each in Week 10, with the Bears having one of the worst offenses over the past three weeks. In Weeks 8-10, the Bears ranked last in EPA per dropback and success rate.

In Weeks 8-10, Moore averaged 14.2 expected fantasy points, with Odunze at 10.8 and Allen at 12.1. Unsurprisingly, the main trio of Bears' receivers have been underperforming their expected fantasy points by two to four points over the past three weeks. The Bears have neutral passing matchups for the rest of the season. We'll need to continue tempering expectations for their pass catchers moving forward.

Instead of focusing on players who have been mainstays in fantasy lineups, let's touch on Jalen Coker. Coker saw four of his eight targets on third and fourth downs in Week 10. Unfortunately, Coker's production was decent on a Bryce Young-led offense, with three receptions for 41 yards.

The visual below shows the Panthers RB/WR/TE receiving leaders based on opportunity and productivity in Weeks 7-10.

Since Week 7 without Diontae Johnson on the Panthers, Coker (9.1) and Xavier Legette (9.0) have nearly identical expected fantasy points, meaning their usage looks like a WR4/5.

In T.J. Hockenson's second game of the season, he saw his target total double to nine in Week 10. Hockenson had five of his nine targets on third and fourth downs, catching all five for four first downs.

It's unusual to see Justin Jefferson overshadowed by another pass catcher, but it's positive to see Hockenson's usage increase over the past two weeks. Though a small sample of two games, Hockenson boasts a 35 percent target share (No. 4) on third and fourth downs behind Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and A.J. Brown.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders in target shares on third and fourth downs in Weeks 1-10.

Josh Downs has earned most of the Colts' pass-catching volume, with the 11th-highest target share since Week 6 at 26.5 percent. He produced over double the fantasy production of the next-highest scorer, Alec Pierce (6.2 PPR/G vs. 13.6 PPR/G) during the past five weeks, plus a target share difference of over 11 percentage points compared to Pierce's (15.2 percent).

Daniel Jones targets Malik Nabers 34.5 percent of the time (No. 6), with Wan'Dale Robinson behind him at 33.7 percent (No. 8) on third and fourth downs, showing he relies on their top two target options in crucial situations. Unsurprisingly, Nabers has been more productive on his third and fourth down targets, evidenced by his 2.64 yards per route run compared to Robinson at 1.31.

If we had to guess which Chargers' receiver leads the team in target share on third and fourth downs, most would've guessed Ladd McConkey. However, Quentin Johnston garners a 28.6 percent target share and ridiculously efficient production.

Among pass catchers with five targets on third and fourth downs, Johnston ranks first in yards per route run (3.80) and 10th in yards per target (12.81). Furthermore, Johnston tied for first with all four touchdowns scored on third and fourth downs. The data tells us to be cautious with the sky-high touchdown and yardage efficiency unless he garners more opportunities.

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