Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (10/28/23)

October 28, 2023

John Brubaker's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 10/28/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props

Day Five of the NBA is here and we have a decent-sized slate worth of NBA action on Saturday night. Every team has now played at least one game and we are ready to see if some of those opening game results were fluky or legit.

Obviously, we have teams playing on back-to-backs today, and perhaps that's something to take advantage of as players are still trying to get their legs under them after a long off-season. Let's take a look to see what kind of value this Saturday slate is providing us.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, October 28. 

NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Miami Heat (+4.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (218.5 total)

I'll start in the midwest as the Miami Heat head to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Miami played a tough game in Boston last night, where a -11 point margin in the fourth quarter ultimately caused Miami to fall to 1-1 in a 119-111 loss. They had played solid, but it's now a pretty tough ask for them to go halfway across the country to take on Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves had off on Friday night and haven't played since Wednesday, where they fell to 0-1 with a 97-94 loss to Toronto up in Canada. This was obviously a low-production game, however, Anthony Edwards did score 26 points despite shooting just 8-27 from the field.

While Edwards is simply a volatile player and it ultimately comes down to how well he can shoot on any given night -- I'm on the over here. My model projects this game to soar over the total -- at 225.72 points. We'll take a stab at the value and hope that Minnesota can take advantage of Miami's tired legs after a grueling matchup in the northeast, but have just enough to keep them in the game.

The Pick: Game Total OVER 218.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)

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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads

Chicago Bulls (-1) @ Detroit Pistons (217.5 total)

I suppose it could be considered a bit foolish to bet on the Bulls this early in the season, or perhaps ever given their own volatile nature.

Thunder Dan bet against the Bulls in yesterday's installment of this article, with the Bulls coming away with that one 104-103 at home. They now head to Detroit to take on a young, scrappy Pistons team. I'm simply not sure if Detroit has the guard/forward play to match up with Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan here. While LaVine is dealing with a back issue, I do expect him to suit up for this one.

That Pistons team is scrappy, chippy and got themselves a very impressive win on Friday night down in Charlotte, where they came away with a 111-99 victory. Jalen Duren feasted on the boards, grabbing 17 rebounds as Alec Burks scored 24 points on the bench. They now travel back home to Detroit after two road games to start the season.

I simply think the Bulls have too much talent here to drop this one, especially considering the Pistons actually had to travel quite a bit further and change time zones overnight. Could they get up for their home opener? Of course. However, my model gives the Bulls a 70% chance of winning by a final score of 114.81-103.54.

The pick: Bulls ML (-116, FanDuel)

Utah Jazz (+5.5) vs. Phoenix Suns (222 total)

I'll head out west to Arizona tonight as the Jazz and Suns duke it out for the first time this season.

The Jazz come into this one 1-1, falling to the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night before bouncing back and handling the Clippers last night at home by a score of 120-118. They now go on the road to take on "the darling of the West" in Phoenix, though it appears the Suns will be without some key players.

The Suns will indeed be without Bradley Beal (back), and Devin Booker (foot) is doubtful at the time I'm writing this. This makes things tough for the Suns who are coming off a road loss to the Lakers on Thursday night. Having off last night while Utah played does give them a bit of an advantage, but clearly not enough to get their studs onto the court.

Nevertheless, my model really likes Utah to cover here. They have a 66.67% chance of covering, despite being projected to drop this one 118.01-116.95. With just a -1.06 margin, I think that gives us more than enough value to take the shot on a scrappy Utah club to cover after coming off of a big win last night.

The Pick: Jazz +5.5 (-110, DraftKings)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Favorite ML Parlay: CHI + BOS (+194, FD)

Favorite Teaser: Bulls +4.5, Cavs +2.5, Jazz +11.5 (+140, FD)

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