RADIO
Friday's results reminded me of the iconic one-liner delivered by Sam Elliott's cowboy character in the cult classic The Big Lebowski. "Sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes the bar eats you." I had been on a nice little roll last week, but every pick I made Friday flopped and I was humbled once again by the NBA. At this point, I am convinced that NBA really stands for "Never Be Arrogant" when it comes to your betting picks as even our best-laid plans (of Mice and Men) can often go awry.
I know, I know - it's awfully early for all these pop culture and literary references but are you even reading my introduction or just skimming this article for picks? By the way, I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too. Props have been hot lately, too!
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Monday, January 23rd. Let's eat the bear tonight, shall we?
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 94-106-1
- Against the Spread: 44-52-1
- Game/Team Totals: 11-24
- Moneyline Parlay: 14-20
- Teasers: 23-10
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Atlanta Hawks (-1) @ Chicago Bulls (239.5 total)
This is the first of two games that are basically "pick 'ems" tonight and I would much rather take a shot at getting these games right than betting on some of these bigger spreads instead.
These teams split the first two games between them and those games have been decided by a total of three points! Chicago pulled out a one-point win in OT back in early December before the Hawks won the rematch by two points later in the month.
With the Bulls having DeMar DeRozan back in the lineup, I give them a slight edge here as DDR is the difference maker they need on offense. His presence takes a lot of pressure off Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic and gives them a clutch shot-maker for the final minutes of this game. Atlanta, meanwhile, is listing Okongwu and Bogdanovic both as questionable ahead of this one, though I think they'll both probably play.
The Bulls are a game above .500 at home, while the Hawks have been several games under .500 on the road this year. My model likes the Bulls by almost three points tonight, but I won't be surprised if it's a one-possession game either way as it has been in both of the first few matchups. These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I'll roll with the home team here to get the win.
The Pick: Bulls ML (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5) @ Houston Rockets (234 total)
Minnesota heads to Houston for a rematch of Saturday night's game when they defeated Houston 113-104 at home. Rudy Gobert could return tonight, but KAT is still out for Minnesota. The Rockets are still without their starting point guard Kevin Porter Jr. again tonight and are now 0-6 in games they've played without him this season.
This spread seems too small to me. Consider that Minnesota is 3-0 against Houston this season with an average margin of victory of 10 points across those contests. Houston simply can't get anything going, having lost 13 in a row and I don't see much room for optimism either without their floor general Porter Jr. I'll take the Wolves to cover here.
The Pick: T-Wolves -5.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies (-1) @ Sacramento Kings (245.5 total)
This is easily the best game of the night as both of these teams are legit good this year and contenders in the Western Conference. Memphis had their huge win streak snapped by the Lakers on Friday night in a very uncharacteristic meltdown late in that one, while the Kings also had their win streak snapped on Saturday in a close loss to the Sixers.
These teams have met three times already this year, with the Grizzlies having taken two of those three contests.
While I love what the Kings are doing this year, I still view Memphis as a cut above them and most of the conference, to be honest. The loss to the Lakers was likely necessary to humble them a bit and all that garbage with Morant and Shannon Sharpe was really dumb and unnecessary. If they get back to basketball and get refocused on playing their game, there aren't many teams I wouldn't pick them against in a true pick'em game like we have here.
Morant and company are so good and they have so many different ways they can beat you. It will take a massive effort from Sabonis, Fox, and at least one of their secondary players to pull off this win for the Kings. I am not saying they can't do it, but I think Memphis is the smarter bet at similar odds. They're going to win this matchup more often than they lose it.
The Pick: Grizzlies ML (-115)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game/Team Totals
NO TOTALS TONIGHT (though, I think quite a few of them are inflated so UNDERS, if anything)
MONEYLINE PARLAY
POR + BOS + UTA = (+122 DK)
FAVORITE UNDERDOG TEASER
No Teaser Tonight
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