RADIO
It's another 9-game slate in the NBA tonight, and I am hoping to keep the hot streak going and get this record back to .500 before you know it. Wednesday's picks did well and we survived a late scratch from Sabonis as the Kings covered anyway. Tonight we have our work cut out for us, but I think there are still some spots that we can attack and I will continue to take my quality over quantity approach by recommending fewer picks on these trickier slates.
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too. Props have been hot lately, too!
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, January 20th. Let's take a look at the games that I am targeting with wagers tonight in the NBA!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 94-101-1
- Against the Spread: 44-49-1
- Game/Team Totals: 11-23
- Moneyline Parlay: 14-19
- Teasers: 23-9
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
New Orleans Pelicans (-1) @ Orlando Magic (228.5 total)
I went around and around on this one before finally settling on including the Pelicans as one of my picks. I know they've struggled lately, going 3-7 in their last ten games and the lack of Zion or Ingram is finally catching up with them as CJ McCollum can't play Superman every night apparently.
But they're facing a Magic team that is 3-7 in their last ten games, too. And I can't help but think that the Pelicans rally around McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas tonight and pick up a win on the road. They're the better team, even this version of their squad. Let's not overthink this one, we are getting even odds on a better team, let's hope they come to play.
The Pick: Pelicans ML (-120)
New York Knicks (+2.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (228 total)
Betting on the Knicks is sometimes a dicey proposition, but I am trying not to let my prior biases affect my pick here. And to be fair, the Hawks have let me down plenty of times, too.
How good are either of these teams, it's been hard to tell and both teams have dealt with some early season injuries to important players, too. I view them both as just outside the top 5-6 teams in the East, but the Knicks have been slightly better this season overall.
Both teams are mostly healthy now, but the Hawks are listing Trae Young are questionable and the Knicks will be without their starting center Mitchell Robinson. They've split the season series 1-1 with the Knicks taking the most recent matchup back on December 7th.
I'm rolling with New York to win, and not just cover because I like those plus odds. The Knicks have actually been one of the better road teams in the league this year with a 14-8 record. Julius Randle has put up some monster games against them, and I think he, Jalen Brunson, and R.J. Barrett can carry New York to a road win against Atlanta here.
The Pick: Knicks ML (+125)
Miami Heat (-1) @ Dallas Mavericks (218 total)
We are continuing our theme of road teams here as the Heat come into Dallas on a nice little hot streak (won 4 of the last 5) and after underachieving for much of the season so far, perhaps this team is ready to make a run and move up the standings in the East.
Dallas is trending in the other direction. They've dropped five of their last six games (although Luka didn't play in two of those losses) and have lost three straight after losing to Atlanta the other night. They're carrying a -8.5 net rating over their last ten games, too.
Dallas will be without their second-leading scorer, too, as Christian Wood is out of the lineup. That hurts more than you might think and they've been a below-average team (-2.5 net rating) in the four games that Wood has already missed this season.
Miami is getting healthy and is the better, deeper squad. You never know when Luka can turn in a heroic performance and carry the Mavs to win, but I'll side with the Heat here in a game where they should probably be more heavily favored.
The Pick: Heat ML (-115)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game/Team Totals
Oklahoma City Thunder (+3.5) @ Sacramento Kings (241.5 total)
Okay, so I made some fairly major tweaks to my points model and I am itching to try it out. We have a potential banger tonight in the final game of the evening as the Thunder and Kings clash in what could be the highest-scoring game on the slate.
The Kings are listing Sabonis as questionable as he missed their last game with the Lakers, so I am wary about betting the spread either way right now. But my model has this one going over by as much as 3-4 points, especially when you factor in how high-scoring both offenses have been in recent weeks.
This is a high total to go over, but consider that the Kings have gone over this number in five of their last six games and OKC has scored 120 or more points in five of their last seven.
The Pick: OVER 241.5 (-110)
MONEYLINE PARLAY
LAC + MEM + DEN = (+118 DK)
FAVORITE UNDERDOG TEASER (buying 4.5 points)
NYK +7, BKN +12, OKC +18 = (+150 DK)
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