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And now back to our regularly scheduled programming! This is my column every Tuesday and I usually love these big Tuesday slates because we get a bunch of games to choose from. Last night was a mixed bag of results for our pitcher props. We had some aces fall on their faces (Cole, Strider) but some other picks hit or exceed their marks (Peralta, Ragans, Lopez, Perez).
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, August 8, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Max Scherzer OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings)
Mad Max started off slow in his Rangers debut, allowing three runs to the White Sox in the first inning. Then he went absolutely nuts and struck out nine of them over the next five innings to earn his first win for his new team.
I have to like his chances to do something similar here to Oakland. They are just really, really bad against RHP this season and despite bringing up some younger talent like Zack Gelof, they are still whiffing 26% of the time over the last month.
I will take Max in these types of matchups more often than not, he is always going to pitch aggressively and attack hitters no matter who he is facing and these young Oakland guys are likely going to come out swinging, trying to take one deep off the old man.
Eduardo Rodriguez OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-110 DraftKings)
E-Rod has let me down in two straight starts and I really thought he would bounce back for a big K total against the Pirates last time out. He did pitch well, allowing just one run over seven innings but he came up one strikeout short of his prop with just five Ks.
I think I am willing to get hurt one more time before I just write him off. The Twins are much better against LHP than RHP when it comes to strikeouts, but they are still below average when compared to the rest of the league and are checking in around 24% over the last month.
They are, however, a little less dangerous in terms of run production as they are a top-5 offense against RHP, and that drops to a middling ranking of 15th against LHP. I expected more juice here, but perhaps bettors have lost faith in E-Rod. I think he gets there tonight and if he doesn't then we can banish him to the "do not play" list for the rest of the season.
Lucas Giolito OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
Another pitcher looking for some redemption here is Giolito. He's coming off one of his worst starts of the season against the Braves and the Angels were certainly hoping for more from him when they acquired him from the White Sox at the deadline.
However, the Braves can (and have) made a lot of good pitchers look bad this season with their ridiculously good offense.
Gio is still a pitcher with a 25% K% who has shown that he still has swing-and-miss stuff. He has dominated some of the better matchups (nine K vs. MIN, nine K vs. LAA when he was still pitching for Chicago) and some tougher matchups, too (10 K vs. BOS).
This matchup today favors him as the Giants have been trending up in their K% to RHP, clocking in around 26% over the last month. Getting Estrada back in the lineup helps a bit, but the bottom half of the lineup is still very K-prone. We have to eat some juice here, but I think Gio gets six strikeouts tonight.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
William Contreras OVER 1.5 total bases (+105 DraftKings)
Contreras has been smacking left-handed pitching all season long and for much of his career. He's posted a .431 wOBA and .291 ISO against LHP this season already.
The Milwaukee backstop is also in peak form right now, having collected 2+ total bases in eight of his last eleven games.
He turned in a three-hit performance last night and is now 5-8 over his last two games. He has just 11 home runs this season, but his 26 doubles is the most in the National League. He will face lefty Kyle Freeland in tonight's matchup who is the definition of a "hittable pitcher" in my opinion.
Robbie Grossman OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+115 DraftKings)
Robbie has really had to work hard to carve out a niche as a fourth outfielder and platoon player in this league. He was never much of a big prospect, yet he has always hit enough for teams to find at-bats for him and he even was an everyday player for Detroit for a while with some moderate success.
He's really thrived from the right side of the plate, so we see him deployed against LHP mainly at this stage of his career, though as a switch hitter he can certainly still hit righties, too. His splits this year look pretty familiar as he's hit to the tune of a .361 wOBA and a .173 ISO against lefties. He's moved up in the order, too, as the Rangers lost Josh Jung to an injury so we could see him hit 6th again or even 5th tonight.
He doubled and scored last night and I like Texas's chances of having men on base for him at the plate here against J.P. Sears, even if they underwhelmed a bit against Waldichuk last night.
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