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It's the last slate of games before the All-Star break and I am ready for some weird and wild stuff to happen today. We have a game as early as Noon EST today (and I have one prop in that game, too) so get those lineups set and bets in here sooner than later. For 100% transparency, I think I had my absolute worst pitching prop day of the season yesterday as nearly every pitcher I bet on missed with the exception of a few (Spencer Strider being one of them). So I am taking it easy on the arms today with just two bonafide studs and I will give you three hitter props instead.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, July 9, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jesus Luzardo OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
We have finally reached the point where Luzardo has been dominant enough for his K line to open up at 7.5. The Marlins lefty has been on some kind of tear lately, shutting out his last three opponents while striking out 26 and walking just four hitters. You dominate Pittsburgh, okay, that's great, but Luzardo followed it up with impressive outings against Boston (a legit offense) and St. Louis (loaded with RHH) and now my interest is really piqued.
The Phillies are a good offense, too, but one that strikes out their fair share (over 25% to LHP). In fact, just one hitter in the projected lineup (Alec Bohm) has a K% under 20% to lefties this season while guys like Kyle Schwarber (34%) and Brandon Marsh (45%) have been atrocious.
We might get some funky lineups today with some teams choosing to get players an extra day of rest heading into the break, so keep an eye on that. But for now, I like Luzardo's chances of keeping up his 8+ strikeout streak against this Philly squad and the odds here are nice, too.
Max Scherzer OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Mad Max has been on a streak of his own, striking out 8+ hitters in his last three starts AND in seven of his last nine. The Padres are a middling matchup for strikeouts but have also been a team that has underperformed largely at the plate when it comes to run creation. I'm not too worried about them running Max early, and as long as Scherzer goes his usual six innings, I'm pretty confident he can get us seven strikeouts based on how well he has been throwing the ball the last month and half.
Max faced San Diego just once this season already, striking out six Padres but in only five innings way back in April. He usually has the green light for 100 pitches and that should give us some confidence in his ability to get it done today.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Josh Jung OVER 1.5 total bases (-125 DraftKings)
I can't really help myself here, I love betting on Jung against lefties and he faces Patrick Corbin today in the early game. Jung hit two bombs last night and was the lone bright spot for the Rangers as they got walloped by the Nats. He's quite deserving of his All-Star status as his rookie campaign continues to be impressive.
His splits against lefties have been some of the best in the league as he's posted a .447 wOBA and .321 ISO in the first half. He crushes sliders, too, which is the pitch that Corbin relies on to pair with his two-seamer. I think Jung is a good bet for an extra-base hit here and I wouldn't blame anyone for betting on him to go yard again either (but I have a different HR prop coming up here in a minute).
Justin Turner OVER 0.5 RBI (+140 DraftKings)
Turner and the Boston offense have been having their way with the Athletics and their lowly pitching staff this weekend. Boston has already scored 17 runs in the first two games. Today, Oakland puts their ace on the bump as lefty JP Sears takes a crack at slowing down this Boston lineup.
Good luck! Boston's lineup is usually lefty-heavy, but they have Turner and Duvall hitting from the right side with authority and some platoon guys like Refsynder, Chang, and Hernandez who are quite capable.
Back to Turner, as he is our main focus here. He has a .413 wOBA and .261 ISO against LHP this year and matches up well with Sears. He's been hitting righties, too, so he can get it done against the bad Oakland bullpen, too. His string of games with at least one RBI has now reached eight consecutive games. With Boston putting so many men on base in this series, I like Turner's chances of driving in a run and he could always just drive himself in by going yard, too!
Jake Burger OVER 0.5 HR (+350 DraftKings)
So as soon as I saw Steven Matz making a spot start for the Cardinals, I had to dig into the hitting profiles of the Chicago right-handed hitters. And yes, Luis Robert and Eloy Jiminez are guys you can bet on against any RHP right now with the way they are hitting, but it was actually Jake Burger's profile that impressed me the most.
Burger's total base prop was still set 0.5 at terrible odds, so we are going big or going home with this bet. Burger has some Joey Gallo in him as he has elite power but also a huge strikeout rate (31.6% against LHP). Matz hasn't had great strikeout numbers this season and has been working out of the bullpen since being demoted from the rotation. He primarily throws two pitches - a sinker and a changeup - and both have been hit hard this season.
Burger has a massive .353 ISO against lefties this year and an incredible 70.5% hard contact rate and 25% barrel rate. He puts the ball in the air (43%) or on a line drive (43%) the majority of the time which is what we are looking for when hunting homers. The formula is usually FLY BALL HITTERS + GROUND BALL PITCHERS for home runs and Matz fits the bill here as a ground ball pitcher who has failed to keep it on the ground enough this year.
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