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Good morning, RotoBallers and it's good to be back to some normalcy this Sunday as we have had baseball back in our lives for a few days. Just like ball players have their routines before each pitch or plate appearance, we writers do, too. It's been nice waking up and writing about baseball again each morning, something I love to do!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, July 16, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zach Eflin OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 FanDuel)
This is by far my favorite of this bunch of K props if I have to pick one. I was really surprised to see this prop at plus odds, considering I have Zach Eflin projected for close to seven strikeouts today -- which is how many he had against them back on June 23.
Eflin has been overlooked a bit by the baseball community in my opinion. The guy is having a phenomenal year with a 10-4 record, 3.25 ERA, and 0.99 WHIP. His 26% strikeout rate is well above average and he's walking just under 4% of opposing hitters.
Tyler Glasnow got stuck on seven strikeouts yesterday and went just one under what we needed. I am definitely not afraid to fire up Eflin here again vs. the Royals, a team with a 25% strikeout rate over the last month. Get these odds while you can!
Reese Olson OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Jumping back over to DraftKings, we have better odds there for Reese Olson to get five strikeouts tonight for the Tigers. Olson was bumped from the rotation when Tarik Skubal and Eduardo Rodriguez returned from injury and pitched in relief for a few games. That is the only reason I can think of as to why his number is so low in such a good spot.
He's been really good in limited innings this season with a 26% strikeout rate and a solid 11.4% SwStr% and is facing a Seattle team that has been striking out over 26% of the time over the last month against RHP. Heck, they even whiffed seven times against Michael Lorenzen last night and he's not what I would consider a strong strikeout pitcher.
Cristian Javier UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-130 DraftKings)
Look, ma, I have an under on my card! One of my favorite unders to bet over the last month has been Cristian Javier. After a strong start to the season, he has really struggled since and he has not struck out six hitters in nine starts! Perhaps he figured out something over the break. I am willing to bet on him continuing his poor K output today against the Angels, who are projected to start six lefties or switch hitters. Javier has some wide splits with just a 14% K rate against lefties (30% against RHH!).
Josiah Gray OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-120 DraftKings)
Don't look now but Josiah Gray, the guy who we loved to pick on for home runs and stack against in DFS, is an All-Star! Gray has enjoyed quite the turnaround this season and has finally started to figure out how to pitch. His fastball was getting smoked last year. This year, he has gone to a lot more offspeed stuff.
He actually throws seven different pitches right now (I saw him show all seven grips in an interview with Rob Friedman at the All-Star game). Fewer fastballs have resulted in better run prevention and the addition of a sweeper to complement his curve and slider has given him another out pitch.
Gray has 5+ strikeouts in six straight games, including six of them against St. Louis the last time he faced them back in June.
BONUS K PROPS!
We are getting plus money for two more spots I really like today and I can't help myself!
Seth Lugo over 4.5K vs. Philly (+100 DK)
Max Scherzer over 6.5K vs. LAD (+100 DK)
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Giancarlo Stanton OVER 1.5 total bases (-140 DraftKings)
This feels like cheating a bit since the Yankees are in Coors, but Giancarlo Stanton has come out of the break clubbing the baseball with a home run in each of the first two games in this series. He gets Chase Anderson on the mound today -- a guy who has a .429 average against with two home runs in 16 plate appearances.
After a good start for Colorado, Anderson is regressing back into the pitcher he has been for the latter stages of his career. He is once again starting to show reverse splits, meaning he is getting hit harder by righties. That's not uncommon for guys who rely on cutters and changeups against RHH and Stanton absolutely demolishes the cutter and the four-seamer. I see another home run today. For safety, I will just bet on a double or a multi-hit game.
Christian Walker OVER 1.5 total bases (+115 DraftKings)
Let's do another big power righty here, this one with some better odds.
Unlike Stanton, Christian Walker is hitless in two games since the break. I think he turns it around today against Yusei Kikuchi.
He's 2-5 lifetime against the Blue Jays' lefty. Most importantly, he matches up really well with Kikuchi's arsenal of pitches that he throws to righties. That would be mainly a four-seamer, slider, and curve. Walker has great splits against lefties and the batted ball data shows that he can elevate and drive all three of those pitches. I think he hits the ball hard off Kikuchi today.
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