RADIO
John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I hope you've enjoyed your weekend so far. We had some more just brutal luck yesterday, with Braxton Garrett and Beau Breiske outdueling Framber Valdez and Kevin Gausman, respectively, and ruining both of our F5 plays. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, June 12, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 30-38-1, -14.27 units
- Sides: 23-26, -11.28 units
- Totals: 6-12-1, -4.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Braves
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ATL -260
PIT: Jose Quintana | ATL: Kyle Wright
I'll head out to the ATL for our first play of the day as the Pirates and Braves close out their weekend series. It'll be the final game of a homestand for Atlanta, who's currently riding a 10-game win streak. They'll send Kyle Wright (6-3, 2.39 ERA) to the mound, in an effort to move that win streak to 11 games. He'll take on Jose Quintana (1-3, 3.19 ERA) and the Pirates, who have been on the wrong side of five straight. I believe each streak continues, and I'll be looking at some more F5 action.
Although Quintana's 3.19 ERA looks clean, he's been considerably worse of late. His WHIP and ERA have jumped up to 1.77 and 5.54, respectively, in his last three starts. He's allowing 32.1% hard contact on the season, and while his xFIP is a respectable 3.91, my projections have him much worse today at 4.86. His rating of 23.48 is towards the bottom of the slate. On the other hand, Kyle Wright has been better in his last three starts, with a 2.18 ERA. His 25.1% hard contact rate on the season is impressive, along with his 3.26 xFIP. His 30.27 model rating gives Atlanta a certain pitching advantage here.
Not only do the Braves have the pitching advantage, but they bring the offensive advantage as well. Their .669 projected wOBA + ISO and 42.71% hard contact rate rank the highest on the slate, standing tall over Pittsburgh's .420 projected wOBA + ISO and 28.5% hard contact rate. FanDuel is giving us Braves -0.5 at -155 in the first five, and I have no problem backing that while they're on this winning streak.
Pick: Braves F5 -0.5 (-155) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN +108
TB: Jeffery Springs | MIN: Cole Sands
I'll head out to Minnesota for our second play of the day as the Rays and Twins close out their weekend set. It'll be two young arms on the mound today as Jeffery Springs (2-2, 1.62 ERA) takes the ball for the visiting Rays while Cole Sands (0-2, 8.49 ERA) takes the ball for the Twins.
Springs's numbers through this bit of the season are extremely impressive, and he's been keeping that form of late. While his numbers have taken a slight dip over his last three starts, they haven't been by much. His 1.62 ERA has dipped to a 2.12 ERA, and his WHIP has dipped from 0.92 to 1.12 in that span. He's allowing 29.5% hard contact and brings in a 3.28 xFIP. My numbers project him to do slightly worse today, though, as I project him to have a 3.71 xFIP and a 26.28 rating.
This isn't as much betting on Springs as it is betting against Cole Sands. Sands's WHIP sits at 1.97, as he's allowing 33.3% hard contact and brings in a 4.81 xFIP. I have him right around the same today, just slightly worse at 4.84, and the Rays knocking him around with a 33.64% projected hard contact rate. The bullpen battle is mostly a wash, but it's worth noting that Tampa Bay has off tomorrow while Minnesota has to travel out to Seattle for a series with the Mariners. For that reason, I'll be taking the value on the Rays at -126 on FanDuel Sportsbook. It's a getaway day regardless, though, so I'll take this for just a half unit.
Pick: Rays Money Line (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Friday!
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