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As fantasy players, we love to use the term "breakout" to define players who will outperform their projections. Finding these values that others miss can be the key to a successful season for our teams.
One such place where we need not only acumen but also luck finding helpful players is in the bullpen. Bullpens in 2024 seem to be more predictable than in recent years, but that can change in one day in the tumult of the MLB where every win is tantamount.
Here we will discuss four breakout relievers who could have terrific seasons and in the process help your fantasy team finish a championship season. All have NFBC ADPs after 200 and thus will cost you little in your ongoing drafts right now.
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Robert Stephenson, Los Angeles Angels
Stephenson has long been an intriguing arm who put it together in 2023 while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays. Stephenson had three wins, one save, nine holds, and a 3.10 ERA with a .98 WHIP. Stephenson also had 77 punchouts in 52.1 innings.
Those numbers do not tell the whole story. Stephenson was pitching badly in Pittsburgh when the Rays acquired him in early summer, and when the Rays get a pitcher, as a fantasy player, pay attention. Stephenson was second in the MLB with a 30.4 K-BB%, behind only Felix Bautista. His 38.3% K% was third in the MLB, behind only Bautista and Aroldis Chapman.
The big difference seems to have been a change of grips and pitch mix. Pitching coach Kyle Snyder suggested that Stephenson change his grip on his slider to try and elicit more velocity on it. The change in hand position unlocked Stephenson to become the most effective reliever in baseball in the season's second half. Making this change added more than four miles per hour to the slider and resulted in more backspin. Statcast is confused by the pitch, with some pitches looking like a slider and others more like a cutter.
Stephenson and Snyder insist it was a slider. Stephenson had 79 at-bats that ended with the cutter/slider, and 42 of those at-bats ended with a strikeout. Only eight of those at-bats ended in a hit. Call it what you will, but the success rate with the pitch was staggering and coupled nicely with his 97 mph fastball and decent splitter.
With only Carlos Estevez standing in his way, Stephenson could easily be the closer in Los Angeles. With an NFBC ADP of 300, he's worth the risk to see if he gets that opportunity. See the graphic below. Call the slider/cutter what you want, but there is no denying its effectiveness.
Hunter Harvey, Washington Nationals
I believe that Hunter Harvey is the best reliever in the Washington bullpen. Currently, Kyle Finnegan projects as the closer to begin the season, but Harvey was quietly outstanding last season. He had four wins, 10 saves, 19 holds, a 2.82 ERA, .94 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts in 60.2 innings. Harvey features a big fastball at 98.3 mph and pairs it with a splitter to lefties and slider to righties. Of great interest is the 28.5% K% and low 5.5% BB%.
Finnegan could easily be a trade candidate to a contender, leaving the closer role to Harvey. Finnegan could also prove to be ineffective and lose the job. Harvey's NFBC ADP is 321, which is a good place to take a small gamble on a former first-round pick who finally appears to be healthy. ATC predicts three wins, 13 saves, a 3.55 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts in 60 innings. Check out his Statcast data below and see for yourself.
Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
In an attempt to keep Miller healthy, the Oakland Athletics are moving him, supposedly temporarily, to the bullpen for the 2024 season. Manager Mark Kotsay recently stated that he would like Miller to work his way up the bullpen hierarchy, and not start in the closer role. General manager David Forst suggested that Miller would be in the mix to close games for the team. Whatever the role, Miller is electric. At this point, Miller might be a two-inning, high-leverage setup guy.
ATC projects three wins and 12 saves with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts in 62 innings. Miller could easily surpass these numbers if he proves to be healthy and can handle the workload. I like Miller as a third reliever in many drafts with upside as a second closer on your roster. Who knows? Maybe Miller even gets a few starts mixed in, health permitting.
Miller is tough to prognosticate due to the unknown role, but the skills shine through, and with an NFBC ADP of 227, he's worth the risk. Check out his K percent from Baseball Savant below. Are you interested yet?
Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers
Uribe is a high-powered arm toiling in the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen. Unfortunately for Uribe, the closer's chair is occupied by one of the best relievers in baseball, Devin Williams. However, the Brewers have been unafraid to trade assets at their perceived peaks, so a trade of Williams could happen at some point this summer. Should that transpire, Uribe could be the next man up.
Uribe features a fastball in the 99th percentile in velocity at an average of 99.5 mph. In a 32-game sample last year, Uribe had one win, one save, a 1.76 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. A huge issue that Uribe will need to work through is the free pass: he had a 15.7% BB% in 2023. Uribe throws a filthy and unhittable slider; Statcast shows an astonishing 58.1% Whiff% on the pitch.
Uribe is expected to be a middle reliever, but with this profile, he could move up the hierarchy quickly. Uribe oozes the type of potential you want in a high-leverage reliever. ATC projects three wins, one save, a 3.46 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP (a bit scary), and 75 strikeouts in 58 innings. His ADP of 435 belies his clear talent. Uribe is a good dart throw at the end of deep league drafts.
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