Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 9. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

What a lame NFL Trade Deadline. Fantasy managers everywhere were likely hoping for an Evan Engram trade or maybe an Eric Ebron trade. Both would have had monster fantasy implications. Sadly, the NFL Trade Deadline is just about one of the biggest sporting events that always disappoints. With absolutely no movement anywhere, fantasy status quos remained intact across the league.

In Week 8, fantasy managers saw a rookie tight end – no, not that one – trying to make a name for himself. Fantasy managers also witnessed a tight end journeyman fully cement himself as a top-12 tight end the rest of the way. The tight end position is tricky, one that is so utterly dependant on the situation in which they find themselves. While talent certainly helps, it's no means a guarantee to success.

We're just about at the halfway point. Some of the biggest surprises are Dalton Schultz, C.J. Uzomah and Dawson Knox. There are far more disappointments. Players such as Tyler Higbee, Robert Tonyan, Jonnu Smith and Evan Engram have all left fantasy managers wanting more. Even Darren Waller and Travis Kelce have performed under expectation thus far. It's pretty much status quo for the tight end position. Let's take a look at some of the more trending tight ends and what we can expect from them moving forward.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Over the past two weeks, Freiermuth has garnered 14 targets, good for a 19% target share during that time. He's caught 11 of those targets and turned them into 102 yards with one touchdown. In Week 7, he caught all seven of his targets for 58 yards. In that same game, Ebron only received two targets. Freiermuth also played 60% of the snaps in Week 7, while Ebron was only on the field for 45%. They received a fairly equal opportunity in the passing game, however. Freiermuth ran 22 routes compared to Ebron's 19, but the target rate per route run was significantly different – 31.8% for the rookie compared to just 10.5% for the veteran. That's big-time progress right there. Week 8 saw even more good things as Ebron was held out because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Freiermuth first game without Eric Ebron and Juju:

* 58-of-74 snaps
* 43 inline, 13 slot, 2 wide
* 26 routes on 39 Big Ben dropbacks
* 7 targets for a 20.5% share
* 4-44-1 result
* Shout out Penn State

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 1, 2021

Fantasy managers should be giving the former Nittany Lion a good, hard look right now. There's been no news as of this week in regards to Ebron's status, but it would obviously be a major boost if he's out. During Weeks 1–6, Freiermuth was in a route on only 48% of Ben Roethlisberger's drop-backs, but that number shot up to 67% in Week 8. That's a big difference and presents the rookie with a lot more opportunity, which is what we're chasing at tight end.

Another big difference in Freiermuth's utilization between those first six weeks and Week 8 was where he was running his routes from. In Week 8, he lined up in the slot or out wide 15 times. From Weeks 1–6, he was averaging just 6.6. snaps in those positions. If Ebron returns, it's impossible to know how Pittsburgh will use these two will players – will the split revert back to pre-bye week or has Freiermuth earned a bigger piece of the pie?

It's unknown yet, but fantasy managers should be paying close attention to Ebron's status. If he is out, Freiermuth is a good streamer this week. If Ebron returns, it's best to leave the rookie on your bench until we see how the team plans on using these two tight ends for the rest of the season. With JuJu Smith-Schuster out for the rest of the season, if Freiermuth can separate from Ebron, he has the opportunity to be a viable streamer and high-end TE2 down the stretch.

Fantasy managers should be looking for tight ends in the top-two of their team's hierarchy – unfortunately, that's a rarity so we can settle for top-three. That's a possibility for Freiermuth moving forward. One of the positives is that because of the sheer volume in Pittsburgh (38 attempts per game), there's more than enough to go around – as long as Ebron fades into the background. That much is still unknown.

Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers

Jared Cook is the unquestioned preferred receiving tight end in Los Angeles and there was some hope when he signed there he might have a little left in the tank to give fantasy managers a backend TE1 or high-end TE2 season in the same way Hunter Henry provided. That has not been the case thus far. While he's been on the field for 60.5% of the total offensive snaps, that number jumps up to 85% when only factoring in Justin Herbert's dropbacks. He's run a route on 75% of those drop-backs, which showcases the fact Cook has plenty of opportunity in the Chargers' high-powered offense. So what's been the problem?

Cracking the tight end code requires multiple steps. First, we want to see them running a route on the vast majority of his team's passing plays. So far, Cook checks off the number one criteria. The problem is he's competing with players that are far better than he is. On the season, Keenan Allen has 66 targets and Mike Williams has 57. It should also be noted Williams' only played 36% of the snaps in Week 6. Austin Ekeler has 39 targets, which leaves Cook as the No. 4 target for Justin Herbert with 37.

He's been held to under 30 yards in five of their last six games and three of their most recent contests. It's hard to pinpoint the exact cause of what's gone wrong for Cook because some of his peripheral numbers look solid. He's ninth among tight ends in air yards per game. He's eight in yards per reception among tight ends with at least 20 targets. The problem has been he's simply not converting on his looks. Among that same group of tight ends, he is dead last in catch percentage at 62.2%.

So the question ultimately becomes will Cook start to convert on the looks he's getting. It's easy to see if he does that, his current TE16 ranking should climb. The more difficult question is, does Jared Cook still got it? He's almost 35 years old and if doesn't start converting on the looks he is getting, Herbert could just as easily start peppering Williams and Allen more frequently. Right now, there's very little consistency to Cook's fantasy game. He's the No. 4 target in this offense and he's not catching the looks he's getting. Fantasy managers are best treating Cook as a touchdown-dependent TE2 and nothing more.

Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars

Let me introduce you to this year's Logan Thomas, Dan Arnold. Arnold started the season with the Carolina Panthers before being traded to the Jaguars prior to their Week 4 game. He played sparingly in that contest – just 32% of the snaps. Since then, however, he's been on the field for 70% of their snaps.

From Weeks 5–8, he is fifth in targets per game among tight ends with 7.7. For a point of reference, Kyle Pitts is at 8 targets per game and the No. 1 target-getter during that time frame is Travis Kelce at 10. He's sixth in receptions over that period with 5.3 catches and 10th in receiving yards. He's averaging 7.3 points per game in half-PPR scoring and that is without a touchdown, which is, of course, one of the most important things for good tight end scoring. That just shows the upside is there for a top-eight finish. The usage he's seen has been excellent, but in Week 8 it really kicked up a notch.

Dan Arnold's Week 8 usage:

* 72% snaps
* 74% routes
* 10 targets (18.5% share)

That's TE1 usage.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 2, 2021

In Week 8, he ran 34 routes out of the slot. The best tight ends are the ones treated like wide receivers. Since Week 5, Arnold has run 83% of his snaps from the slot position or split out wide. That is a cheat code for fantasy football tight ends. He only has two red zone targets, one of which came with Carolina, but if that number ticks up a bit, Arnold is going to be a weekly tight end start. In all honesty, based on how he's been used since the trade, he's already there.

He's running 27 routes per game from the slot or out wide position. He's seeing 7.7 targets per game. He's been the leading receiver for the Jaguars twice out of three games since Week 5. If he's on your waiver wire and you need help at tight end, Arnold is the guy you should be adding this week. He has the look of a top-10 tight end the rest of the way with the amount Jacksonville is using him in the passing game.

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Last week we talked about Noah Fant and the impending return of Jerry Jeudy and what that might do to Fant's value. As you continue reading, you'll find that it had some very real and negative implications. That same question now gets asked of Schultz with Michael Gallup's impending return. Gallup has only played in one game thus far this season and with seven weeks into the Cowboys' season, it looks very much like an outlier. That week they threw the football 58 times. Over the next four games, they would only average just under 27 attempts per game.

Due to the lower than expected passing volume in Dallas, Gallup's injury likely hid a potential "too many mouths to feed" situation. There is no doubt if the Cowboys continue to operate with a 54/46 pass to run ratio, one of their top-four pass-catchers is going to get pinched. One of the positives, however, is Schultz has solidly distanced himself from Blake Jarwin. Over their past two games, Schultz has played on 83% of the snaps while Jarwin lags behind with just under 49%. During that time, Schultz has out-targeted Jarwin, 12 to 2 and has 90 receiving yards to Jarwin's one. At the very least, fantasy managers do not need to be concerned about the tight end committee anymore.

From Weeks 2–7, Cedrick Wilson actually leads the Cowboys in routes run out of the slot with 146 – Schultz is second with 72. CeeDee Lamb, their primary slot receiver last season, is at 45 – which trails even Amari Cooper. In Week 1, Wilson, Cooper and Lamb all ran more routes out of the slot than Schultz. Gallup was hurt late in that game, which might indicate Schultz's slot usage has increased due to Gallup's injury. With the impending return of Gallup, the Cowboys may choose to use Lamb and Cooper more in the slot than they have since his injury. This transition would force Schultz to run more of his routes out of an in-line position.

Through eight games, Schultz is TE5, but fantasy managers shouldn't expect that kind of production the rest of the season. The Cowboys' low-passing volume with Gallup's impending return is likely to pinch Schultz first. This is especially true if he resorts back to a traditional in-line tight end. By no means is this a warning to sell, but expectations should be altered.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Everything fantasy managers wanted Goedert to be without Zach Ertz has come to fruition in Weeks 7 and 8. He's been fantastic and his utilization has been just as good – if not better. Since Ertz was traded, Goedert has received six targets per game – compared to just 3.8 targets with Ertz. In Weeks 7–8, Goedert has racked up 142 yards and has become the focal point of the Eagles' passing game.

The Eagles threw the ball 16 times today. Dallas Goedert was targeted seven times. 44% target share.

— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) October 31, 2021

During the last two weeks, Goedert has the second-most receiving yards among tight ends, second to only Kyle Pitts. He is averaging 71 yards per game. During that same period, he's fourth among tight ends in air yards per game and third in average depth of target. Those numbers illustrate an upside that was not present when Ertz was still in Philadelphia. He's been used and targeted down the field, which is excellent in regards to his fantasy prospects. He has a 26.1% market share in Philadelphia since Ertz was traded, which is second to only T.J. Hockenson among tight ends. Ironically, he's tied with Zach Ertz with a 10.4 point per game average since Week 7 for TE6.

In Weeks 1–5, Goedert lined up in the slot or out wide on 41.7% of Hurts' drop-backs. In Weeks 7–8, that number rose to 62.5%. This cannot be said enough, but fantasy managers want their tight ends treated like wide receivers as much as possible. Since the Ertz trade, Goedert has led the Eagles in receiving yards with 142 – the next closest is 76. He is locked in as one of Hurts' top-two targets the rest of the season and with that kind of usage, fantasy managers should feel confident in him finishing as a top-six tight end from here on out.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

I cannot, will not, quit Kmet. He hasn't given fantasy managers a lot of reasons to keep the faith and it's justified if you're starting to feel like it just isn't going to happen this year. It might not, but there are few tight ends commanding the kind of market share Kmet is. He holds a 17.7% market share, which is higher than other tight ends such as Mike Gesicki, Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry and Tyler Higbee. That number looks a lot better too when looking at Weeks 3–8, Justin Fields' starts. During that time, Kmet's market share jumps to 20%. That's once again higher than Mike Gesicki, Hunter and Tyler Higbee and it's only a percentage point away from Noah Fant and Darren Waller.

If you believe in Justin Fields at all, you should still be stashing Cole Kmet. The snaps, routes, and even technically the targets at times have been good.

He's one of the few guys you can stash with some sort of path to upside if the quality of targets improves.

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 1, 2021

The best part is, it looks as if his role is expanding too. In Weeks 3–5, Kmet had 10 targets compared to Allen Robinson's 14 and Darnell Mooney's 15. From Weeks 6–8, Kmet recorded 17 targets, which was second on the Bears to only Mooney's 22. Since Fields' first start in Week 3, no other Bears' player has run more of their routes out of the slot. Kmet has 87 routes run from the slot – second is Robinson with 76.

The biggest thing holding back the Bears' pass-catchers has not been the ineffectiveness of their quarterbacks. Admittedly that has not helped, but the real problem has been a complete lack of volume. From Weeks 3–5, Fields attempted only 57 passes. In Weeks 6–8, that number rose to 86, which is an increase of almost 10 attempts per game. That is huge. If the passing volume increases a bit from the 29 it's been at the past three weeks to low-30's and if Fields' can take a step forward, fantasy managers could have a backend TE1 on their hands. There's no guarantee that will happen, but there's an upside here other tight ends, such as Jared Cook, Zach Ertz and dare I say, even Tyler Higbee.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

Fant looks like a receiver. He can run like a receiver. His skill set is that of a receiver. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the Broncos don't use him in that fashion. From Weeks 1–8, he is third in routes run out of the slot with 60. Tim Patrick and Kendall Hinton – yes, the former-quarterback Kendall Hinton – have both ran more routes from the slot. Despite being active for only two games this season, Jerry Jeudy is only 20 routes behind Fant with 40. He's also only run 14 routes split out wide, which is only one more than rookie running back, Javonte Williams. That kind of usage is not what fantasy managers were expecting or hoping for when they drafted him this season.

#BroncosCountry % of routes run per dropback in Week 8

Tim Patrick - 97%
Courtland Sutton - 94%
Jerry Jeudy - 77%
Noah Fant - 68%
Melvin Gordon III - 55%
Albert Okwuegbunam - 42%
Javonte Williams - 39%

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 1, 2021

Week 8 was a huge red flag with the return of Jerry Jeudy. Not only was Fant fourth on the team in routes run, he split a decent amount of time with Albert Okwuegbunam. In weeks where Albert O was either inactive or hurt early in the game, Fant played 92% of the snaps. In weeks where Okwuegbunam played from start to finish, that number dropped to under 80%.

The target distribution in Week 8 with all Bronco pass-catchers healthy was also concerning. There were four players with four targets and three players with three. Fant ran only two routes from the slot with Jeudy active and none split out wide. His lack of "receiver" playtime has led to a much lower than average depth of target than what would be desired and if the target volume decreases with the return of Jeudy, Fant could find himself as more of a high-end TE2 than the dependable TE1 many fantasy managers were expecting.

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