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The start of the event is almost here! Here are some of Spencer's favorite DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
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Thank you for joining me today for my official DraftKings selections for this week's event. If you haven't had a chance to already, here is my Monday DraftKings article - a piece where I provided in-depth insight into my early takeaways for how the venue will play from a statistical perspective. While most of that information remains relevant, especially when discussing how I handicapped the event in my model, consider this article your final stop for all things DFS on Wednesday afternoon.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Bermuda Championship
Here is an updated look at my model! I will be using this brand-new link until Wednesday night, and you will notice round one DraftKings pricing has been included, as well as new ownership totals and drift percentages.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Seamus Power ($10,200) - I wasn't planning to go this route when the week started, but the public sentiment on Power that he is unplayable because of a few more ball-striking tournaments in a row has probably opened up value on the best upside golfer in my model.
I realize there is limited safety on a player who lost negative-7.4 shots with his irons a few days ago, but this is about leverage on arguably the first or second-best PGA Tour member in this field. If he can put it all together, the ceiling is high, and he ranks first in this tournament at short courses throughout his career. That is what we want to see from a sub-10 percent option, and I can't find a better leverage choice in the $10,000 section than the Irishman.
Mark Hubbard ($10,000) - Sloths Revenge pointed out how my model seems to always like Mark Hubbard in these events, and I am hoping this is the week that his skillset can take advantage of a weaker field. Hubbard is one of only two non-Korn Ferry players to rank inside the top 30 of my reweighed par three, four and five scoring (Michael Gligic), and he is also the only qualifier to land inside the top 30 of every category that I ran this week. If the first win is going to come, it might happen this week.
Other Thoughts - We don't need to force ourselves into this range because of the scattered similarities throughout, although Power and Hubbard grade more as real PGA Tour upside talents than most other names. A similar sentiment can be said about Denny McCarthy and Aaron Rai, but I prefer each for cash over GPPs.
$9,000 Range
Patrick Rodgers ($9,700) - You don't need to look much further than public ownership starting to reverse and sharp money going in the opposite direction and flooring the pedal to the ground. I have seen Rodgers priced -140 (or higher) in head-to-head matchups against the likes of Aaron Rai, Nick Hardy, Alex Smalley, Justin Lower and Stephan Jaeger, and there might not be a golfer on the board experiencing as much 'Pro versus Joe' support in this space.
My model likes Rodgers' potential to find the winner's circle this week, and his combination of distance, wind play and putting could work perfectly together to allow him to shoot up the leaderboard.
Alex Smalley ($9,500) - I've been waiting for par-five scoring to become a diminished statistic so Alex Smalley can better realize his upside potential, and I think we finally have that opportunity here at Port Royal.
The American is the top-ranked golfer in my model for ball-striking, and I have been a big proponent that par-three scoring will be the most critical statistic this week for golfers that want to win the title - a category we see Smalley rank second overall.
Other Thoughts: Russell Know ($9,200) is on my shortlist of options. S.H. Kim ($9,600) looks great from a statistical perspective, but the data is extremely limited. And I have no issues with anyone that wants to include Grayson Sigg ($9,400) or Stephan Jaeger ($9,300) into builds.
$8,000 Range
Michael Gligic ($8,100) - The ball-striking + weighted proximity totals have him ranked first in this field, and the current metrics are surging, evidenced by him placing at least 25 spots better than his baseline output in almost every critical category. I've seen some support entering the market for him over the past 24 hours, but we are still way too shallow at sub-10 percent.
Erik Van Rooyen ($8,000) - Erik Van Rooyen ranks fifth in weighted proximity and 13th in total driving. Add that to the fact that he is third over his past 50 rounds in strokes gained total on short courses, and we have a profile of a golfer that is the best leverage option on the board at $7,000 or higher.
Other Thoughts: My model does have a few players worth considering in this range, but a lot of my exposure will go to Gligic and Van Rooyen
$7,000 Range
I don't have a $7,000 golfer that is a must-play, so I will be using this group more conservatively than usual and trying to get my exposure to the first six names in this article. Consider this section to be one where I want to mix and match as much as possible, although they will become fixtures to builds since I need to round out lineups from the top. I will be trying to keep my core very tight this week.
Doug Ghim ($7,800) - I am ready to get hurt for the one-millionth time. The ownership is worth a shot since we can get Ghim at under five percent, and the upside portion of my model does like his chances to provide a top-20 finish. I wouldn't take this play and expect any semblance of a floor, but the leverage is intriguing since nobody seems to want to suffer the consequences of the 'Ghim Reaper.'
Austin Smotherman ($7,500) - My model believes 11 percent is fair on Austin Smotherman, so I decided to keep him in my player pool because of his ball-striking upside. The American is one of the few spots where I am not looking to find myself massively overweight compared to the field, but I can live with playing it safe at around 12-15 percent. If you are more aggressive than I am in these spots, I would take him out of your player pool before using him at 20%+, but I included him on this list since the data refuses to point negative, even with the ownership creeping up. Even if the ownership might end up being as high as anyone in this section for my builds, the leverage I am looking to take on will be the lowest.
Lucas Glover ($7,500) - We can say the same thing about Ghim, Glover, Bramlett or Duncan, but these are sub-five percent options with massive ceilings and low floors. I will gladly take my 10-15 percent on the group and hope a handful of them make a run up the leaderboard, but I am aware that there is missed cut equity on every name there. If we want to win a GPP, we need to take chances.
Joseph Bramlett ($7,500) - Forty-five spots better when mimicking the weighted proximity toward Port Royal than expectation on a standard track, Joseph Bramlett has the ball-striking and par-five acumen to take advantage of the course.
Ben Taylor ($7,400) - We are dealing with limited data, but Ben Taylor ranks seventh in GIR percentage and is also inside the top 15 for par-five scoring - a category that should make it easier for him to make the weekend.
Tyler Duncan ($7,400) - (See Lucas Glover Section)
Kevin Yu ($7,300) - I worry a little that Kevin Yu is a product of short-term returns inflating his upside equity, but the weighted par three in my model places him seventh, and he is number one this year for golfers in strokes gained off the tee.
Additional Options To Consider: Nate Lashley, MJ Daffue, Matti Schmid and Kramer Hickok will get sprinkled in here and there.
$6,000 Range (Top Options To Consider)
We are mostly dealing with sub-one percent golfers. Here are some options I am sprinkling in if I am making 150 lineups.
Camilo Villegas, Andrew Novak, Scott Gutschewski, Scott Brown, Kevin Tway. My model will include a few more reasonable choices.
Options I am Prioritizing:
| Player | Price |
| Seamus Power | $10,200 |
| Mark Hubbard | $10,000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $9,700 |
| Alex Smalley | $9,500 |
| Michael Gligic | $8,100 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | $8,000 |
| Doug Ghim | $7,800 |
| Austin Smotherman | $7,500 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,500 |
| Joseph Bramlett | $7,500 |
| Tyler Duncan | $7,400 |
| Ben Taylor | $7,400 |
| Kevin Yu | $7,300 |
You can use my model (or the other recommendations in this article) to continue to fill out your player pools.
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