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The calendar has flipped, and that means we are one step closer to fantasy football drafts. It has surely been a wild offseason that featured many star players changing teams, including at the running back position. Players like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, and Tony Pollard all changed teams this offseason.
As a result, we could see some ADP changes at the top of drafts this year. Barkley's ADP should rise after signing with the Eagles this offseason, while Pollard's ADP will fall from a season ago following his three-year deal with the Tennessee Titans. Both players, though, will not enter the 2024 NFL Draft as sleepers in fantasy.
So, let's take a look at four running backs who are sleepers or undervalued currently in fantasy football drafts in 2024.
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Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
New Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon might not be the same back he was once as he enters his age-28 season. However, Mixon can still play at a high level, and he should see a high volume of touches in Houston's offense in 2024. Last year, the seven-year veteran finished as the RB6 in PPR formats with the Bengals while averaging 15.7 PPR fantasy points per game.
Mixon has been one of the most reliable fantasy options over the past few years, finishing inside the top 12 at the running back position in three straight years. But somehow, he is going as the RB15 in current Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts this offseason. That is great value for a player who has totaled 4,184 yards from scrimmage and 37 total touchdowns since 2021.
Joe Mixon:
Pros: Has top-12 fantasy numbers in three straight years + played 14+ games in six of seven career seasons. Got paid more guaranteed $ than Josh Jacobs this offseason and is now the projected workhorse of a likely great Houston Texans offense.
Cons: Yards per carry.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 2, 2024
There might be some hesitation from fantasy managers in drafting Mixon since he will play for a different team this upcoming season. Nonetheless, he landed in a great spot in Houston, considering he won't really face any competition for touches in the backfield. In an elite offense that should score plenty of points, the soon-to-be 28-year-old running back should be a value pick in fantasy drafts in 2024.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
When running back Zack Moss signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Bengals this offseason, he was a player that had sleeper written all over him. Moss was going to a situation in Cincinnati where he had the chance to be a starter on a top offense in the NFL.
However, his ADP in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts does not support that. Moss is currently the RB32 off the board and going behind running backs like Jaylen Warren, Austin Ekeler, Trey Benson, Brian Robinson Jr. Pollard, and Javonte Williams -- all of whom are likely in for a big-time split at the position on their respective teams.
Joe Mixon led the league in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (38) last season
Zack Moss takes his spot and has a current Underdog ADP of 104.7 (RB32) pic.twitter.com/KjCPGtG2u9
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) May 2, 2024
Now, there is likely some hesitancy from fantasy managers, considering there is a chance that Moss is not even the starter. Chase Brown -- who the team selected in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft -- showed some promise down the stretch for the Bengals. Nevertheless, the four-year vet should be in line for the starting job, especially given his dominance in that role with the Colts a season ago.
In four starts in 2023, Moss ran 89 times for 445 yards and three touchdowns. He's more than capable of running the starting job in Cincinnati, and if he does win that role out of training camp, he should be extremely valuable in fantasy. The new Bengals running back is a sleeper at his current price.
Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy managers probably heard all offseason that the 2024 running back class was not very strong. Zero running backs went in the first round, and only Jonathon Brooks (Carolina Panthers) went in the second round. However, there is a real opportunity for Benson to see some chances in Year 1 after being selected by the Arizona Cardinals at 66th overall.
Unless there is a surprise trade that occurs with James Conner -- which seems unlikely -- Benson will start the season as the Cardinals' backup running back. As a result, he certainly won't be a hot commodity in drafts, and fantasy managers might only be looking to select him as a handcuff to Conner. That explains why he is currently the RB28 off the board.
Nevertheless, Benson is going to be a great stash on your bench in fantasy, especially with the long-term injury history of Conner. The veteran has missed eight combined games over the past two seasons and has never played a full season in his seven-year career. That means the rookie will eventually get his moment to shine in both the NFL and fantasy. At his draft price, he is worth a shot and could be a real fantasy contributor in his first year.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott is back with the Dallas Cowboys and should be back to contributing solid numbers in fantasy. After spending the 2023 season with the New England Patriots, the Cowboys went out and signed Elliott this offseason to a one-year, $3 million deal.
That move has surely made the veteran fantasy relevant again, especially since he is the favorite to be the Cowboys' RB1 in 2024. With Dallas losing Pollard to free agency and not doing much to replace him, Elliott should likely beat out Rico Dowdle for the starting role in Week 1. That explains why his ADP sits a few spots ahead of Dowdle currently in drafts.
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is back for an eighth season in Dallas. “I think you guys all now what I’m going to give when I’m on the field.” pic.twitter.com/AJfgCnKbI9
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) May 2, 2024
Of course, Elliott is nowhere near the same runner he once was with the Cowboys, but he does have some touchdown upside in that offense. In his last two seasons in Dallas in 2021 and 2022, the two-time rushing champion scored a combined 22 rushing touchdowns. With his ability to fight through defenders up the middle, we could definitely see another double-digit touchdown season from him in 2024.
That's why Elliott is an appealing option later in fantasy drafts. He is the RB1 on a top-five offense in the league, and he should see close to 15 carries every game. The 28-year-old might be past his prime, but he can still contribute solid fantasy numbers this upcoming season, given his touchdown potential in 2024.
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