X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Football ADP Values on Sleeper - Undervalued, Overvalued Draft Picks

David Njoku - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire

Mike analyzes four fantasy football undervalued ADPs and four overvalued picks on Sleeper for 2024 drafts. Which NFL players are bargains for Sleeper leagues?

While the Scott Fish Bowl is wrapping up, most 2024 fantasy football redraft leagues won’t draft until next month. However, now is the time to start preparing for your redraft leagues, whether they are home leagues with a bunch of friends or competitive leagues with a significant buy-in.

Many factors go into winning a redraft fantasy football league. However, they all boil down to two things – finding players who are undervalued and avoiding those who are overvalued based on average draft position (ADP).

Let’s look at four overvalued and four undervalued players in the Sleeper ADP that fantasy players should avoid or target during their 2024 drafts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Overvalued Players - Sleeper ADPs

Lamar Jackson: ADP 37.4

Jackson is coming off his second MVP-winning season in his career. However, he wasn’t a top-three fantasy quarterback in 2023. The veteran was the QB4, averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game. Jackson had some massive spike weeks but also had some awful fantasy performances. He scored 13 or fewer fantasy points in nearly a third of the games.

Furthermore, the superstar quarterback saw his rushing potential take a hit under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Jackson averaged 51.3 rushing yards per game last season, the lowest average of his career as the starting quarterback. His rushing average will likely be even lower in 2024 after the Baltimore Ravens added Derrick Henry in free agency.

Josh Jacobs: ADP 26.5

Jacobs signed a significant four-year deal with the Green Bay Packers this offseason, suggesting the veteran will be the team’s featured running back this year. However, the Packers re-signed AJ Dillon and spent a third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on MarShawn Lloyd. The coaching staff has praised the rookie and wants to make him a meaningful part of the offense.

More importantly, Jacobs severely regressed from his breakout season in 2022 to last year. He saw his yards per rushing attempt decline by 29%, his explosive run rate slip by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt drop by 29% (per Fantasy Points Data). The veteran has also struggled with injuries in his career.

Aaron Jones: ADP 59.4

The veteran running back had an amazing two-game run during the playoffs. Jones was the RB2 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per matchup against two talented defenses. Unfortunately, he was a massive fantasy bust during the regular season, missing six games and leaving two others early because of hamstring and knee injuries.

Jones also set career lows career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%), per PFF. Furthermore, the veteran ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data).

David Njoku: ADP 88.7

While the former Miami star averaged a career-high 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year, Njoku was quarterback-dependent. The veteran was TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per game. He had only one receiving touchdown with the franchise quarterback.

By comparison, the veteran tight end was the TE1 in the five contest with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per matchup. Furthermore, Njoku scored 66.7% of his receiving touchdowns last season with the veteran quarterback. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival adds significant target competition for Njoku in 2024.

 

Undervalued Players - Sleeper ADPs

Patrick Mahomes: ADP 35.5

I would suggest that fantasy players wait until the later round to select a quarterback in a 1QB league this year because there are several appealing options outside the top 12. However, Mahomes is one quarterback I will pay up for early in drafts. The superstar is coming off the worst season of his career in 2023, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game.

Mahomes averaged fewer than 20.5 fantasy points per game for the first time in his career as the starting quarterback last year. Yet, he has league-winning upside despite being a late third-round pick in ADP. The Kansas City Chiefs added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy this offseason to pair with a healthy Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, giving Mahomes the best receiving core of his career.

Zamir White: ADP 80.4

While he barely played over the first 13 games last season, White was one of the top running backs in fantasy football over the final four contests. The former Georgia star was the RB8, averaging 14.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game during the four weeks Josh Jacobs missed with an injury despite having only one touchdown.

Furthermore, he had 20 or more touches in every contest, totaling 100 or more scrimmage yards in all but one game. White also had the fourth-highest yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.06) among running backs with at least 30 attempts during those four weeks, ahead of Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs (per Fantasy Points Data).

Chris Godwin: ADP 77.2

Many had concerns about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receivers heading into last season. While Mike Evans had a top-five finish, fantasy players struggled to trust Godwin. The veteran scored 9.6 or fewer half-point PPR fantasy points in 64.7% of the games. Furthermore, Godwin averaged under 10 fantasy points per game for the first time since 2018.

However, the veteran is one of my favorite wide receiver targets this year. The Buccaneers are moving Godwin back to his natural position in the slot. He averaged 0.41 fantasy points per route run in the slot compared to 0.26 lined up outside last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Godwin outscores Evans in half-point and full PPR scoring.

Pat Freiermuth: ADP 129.1

While Freiermuth had the worst year of his career in 2023, the veteran is one of my top later-round tight end draft targets. The Pittsburgh Steelers offense was awful last season, regardless of who was under center. However, they should be much better this year, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields taking over at quarterback.

More importantly, Arthur Smith taking over as offensive coordinator is excellent news for Freiermuth. The Atlanta Falcons tight ends combined for a 31.7% overall target share and a 29.3% red zone target share. With Diontae Johnson now a member of the Carolina Panthers, Freiermuth could see the volume needed for a breakout season in the final year of his rookie contract.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualifies 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer but Still a Long Shot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Tyler Reddick

Has a Lot of Work To Do To Be Competitive in Mexico
AJ Allmendinger

Struggling to Find Speed in Mexico City
Chris Buescher

Says Car is "Bad Fast" Heading into Mexico City Race
Michael McDowell

Confident Heading into Viva Mexico 250
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Hunter Brown

s Records 12 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Royce Lewis

to be Placed on Injured List
Byron Buxton

Exits Early on Saturday
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF