Fantasy Football ADP Values on Sleeper - Undervalued, Overvalued Draft Picks

Mike analyzes four fantasy football undervalued ADPs and four overvalued picks on Sleeper for 2024 drafts. Which NFL players are bargains for Sleeper leagues?

While the Scott Fish Bowl is wrapping up, most 2024 fantasy football redraft leagues won’t draft until next month. However, now is the time to start preparing for your redraft leagues, whether they are home leagues with a bunch of friends or competitive leagues with a significant buy-in.

Many factors go into winning a redraft fantasy football league. However, they all boil down to two things – finding players who are undervalued and avoiding those who are overvalued based on average draft position (ADP).

Let’s look at four overvalued and four undervalued players in the Sleeper ADP that fantasy players should avoid or target during their 2024 drafts.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

Overvalued Players - Sleeper ADPs

Lamar Jackson: ADP 37.4

Jackson is coming off his second MVP-winning season in his career. However, he wasn’t a top-three fantasy quarterback in 2023. The veteran was the QB4, averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game. Jackson had some massive spike weeks but also had some awful fantasy performances. He scored 13 or fewer fantasy points in nearly a third of the games.

Furthermore, the superstar quarterback saw his rushing potential take a hit under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Jackson averaged 51.3 rushing yards per game last season, the lowest average of his career as the starting quarterback. His rushing average will likely be even lower in 2024 after the Baltimore Ravens added Derrick Henry in free agency.

Free-agent Derrick Henry is signing a two-year, $16 million deal worth up to $20 million, including $9 million fully guaranteed in the first year with the Baltimore Ravens, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/jYiY9118kR

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2024

Josh Jacobs: ADP 26.5

Jacobs signed a significant four-year deal with the Green Bay Packers this offseason, suggesting the veteran will be the team’s featured running back this year. However, the Packers re-signed AJ Dillon and spent a third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on MarShawn Lloyd. The coaching staff has praised the rookie and wants to make him a meaningful part of the offense.

More importantly, Jacobs severely regressed from his breakout season in 2022 to last year. He saw his yards per rushing attempt decline by 29%, his explosive run rate slip by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt drop by 29% (per Fantasy Points Data). The veteran has also struggled with injuries in his career.

Aaron Jones: ADP 59.4

The veteran running back had an amazing two-game run during the playoffs. Jones was the RB2 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per matchup against two talented defenses. Unfortunately, he was a massive fantasy bust during the regular season, missing six games and leaving two others early because of hamstring and knee injuries.

Jones also set career lows career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%), per PFF. Furthermore, the veteran ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data).

David Njoku: ADP 88.7

While the former Miami star averaged a career-high 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year, Njoku was quarterback-dependent. The veteran was TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per game. He had only one receiving touchdown with the franchise quarterback.

By comparison, the veteran tight end was the TE1 in the five contest with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per matchup. Furthermore, Njoku scored 66.7% of his receiving touchdowns last season with the veteran quarterback. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival adds significant target competition for Njoku in 2024.

Undervalued Players - Sleeper ADPs

Patrick Mahomes: ADP 35.5

I would suggest that fantasy players wait until the later round to select a quarterback in a 1QB league this year because there are several appealing options outside the top 12. However, Mahomes is one quarterback I will pay up for early in drafts. The superstar is coming off the worst season of his career in 2023, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game.

Mahomes averaged fewer than 20.5 fantasy points per game for the first time in his career as the starting quarterback last year. Yet, he has league-winning upside despite being a late third-round pick in ADP. The Kansas City Chiefs added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy this offseason to pair with a healthy Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, giving Mahomes the best receiving core of his career.

Zamir White: ADP 80.4

While he barely played over the first 13 games last season, White was one of the top running backs in fantasy football over the final four contests. The former Georgia star was the RB8, averaging 14.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game during the four weeks Josh Jacobs missed with an injury despite having only one touchdown.

Zamir White hits paydirt for #RaiderNation #LACvsLV on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/ga7O4RMwdt pic.twitter.com/IS3mppzXyP

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2023

Furthermore, he had 20 or more touches in every contest, totaling 100 or more scrimmage yards in all but one game. White also had the fourth-highest yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.06) among running backs with at least 30 attempts during those four weeks, ahead of Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs (per Fantasy Points Data).

Chris Godwin: ADP 77.2

Many had concerns about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receivers heading into last season. While Mike Evans had a top-five finish, fantasy players struggled to trust Godwin. The veteran scored 9.6 or fewer half-point PPR fantasy points in 64.7% of the games. Furthermore, Godwin averaged under 10 fantasy points per game for the first time since 2018.

However, the veteran is one of my favorite wide receiver targets this year. The Buccaneers are moving Godwin back to his natural position in the slot. He averaged 0.41 fantasy points per route run in the slot compared to 0.26 lined up outside last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Godwin outscores Evans in half-point and full PPR scoring.

Pat Freiermuth: ADP 129.1

While Freiermuth had the worst year of his career in 2023, the veteran is one of my top later-round tight end draft targets. The Pittsburgh Steelers offense was awful last season, regardless of who was under center. However, they should be much better this year, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields taking over at quarterback.

More importantly, Arthur Smith taking over as offensive coordinator is excellent news for Freiermuth. The Atlanta Falcons tight ends combined for a 31.7% overall target share and a 29.3% red zone target share. With Diontae Johnson now a member of the Carolina Panthers, Freiermuth could see the volume needed for a breakout season in the final year of his rookie contract.

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