Fantasy Deep Dive Week 2: Nikola Vucevic

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Magic have been a fairly competitive 2-3 team and center Nikola Vucevic, who we assumed as just keeping the seat warm for Mohamed Bamba, has been on fire as of late. There's Nikola revolution in the NBA right now as Nikola Jokic and Nikola Mirotic play stellar basketball, but it's Vucevic who interests me because we didn't expect it. He's increased his productivity in nearly every category this year.

How, though? What is it that has Vucevic playing this well, and will it keep up?

Let's head to the tape and talk about Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic and find out.

Nikola Vucevic: Deep Dive

Some Background Information

Nikola Vucevic is one of those guys who's been in the NBA far longer than you realize, as evidenced by the fact that I fired up a video game made for the Wii this week and played a game against the rookie, 76ers version of the big man.

Vucevic came to Orlando during the convoluted Dwight Howard trade and he's been there ever since, capably manning the middle for the Magic when he's been healthy. He's started drifting out towards the three-point line more and more over the years, since that's what NBA big men do now, and he's already 7-for-9 from deep this year, a mark that feels -- and is -- unsustainable.

What does look sustainable, based on his career averages, is his scoring in the high-teens, his double-digit rebounds, and, well...maybe his passing numbers, as the Magic are weak at the point guard position and might as well try putting the ball in Vucevic's hands more often.

Per BBall Index, Vucevic rates really well in some categories: 99th percentile in points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball handler, 92nd percentile in transition, 93rd percentile in adjusted rebound rate, plus strong passing numbers, especially for a big. He ranks in the 93rd percentile among bigs in playmaking.

His 1.67 D-PIPM (24th best of players who played at least 1000 minutes) suggests he's still a capable defender, and his offensive contributions resulted in a team-best 2.54 PIPM last year. He was Orlando's most impactful player when weighing both ends of the floor. That PIPM placed him the 96th percentile of NBA players, by the way. We often forget about Vucevic, but he is actually pretty good at what he does.

Game Tape

Alright, enough blubbering about advanced stats! Let's see how Vucevic looks in action.

Now, I like Jusuf Nurkic, but having him on Vucevic, who is capable of popping out along the perimeter, is maybe not the best decision, because while Nurkic is a great interior defender, I'm not sold on him outside the paint. Vucevic sets an early screen at the top of the key here, and as Evan Fournier drives to the paint Vucevic sneaks down that way. But his primary defender, Nurkic, is stuck down lower, and Vucevic pops back out, essentially using Fournier's movement and pass as its own kind of screen to open up space. Vucevic has the shooting skill to allow him to take this shot any time he gets this separation. He's actually shooting less mid-range shots this year as a whole -- a good sign, as they can be one of the least efficient shots in basketball -- but his ability to hit them when he's open is a good, added value to his game.

Speaking of things that add value, let's talk about Vucevic's long-range game. His 77.8 percent mark from deep isn't going to keep up, but I do think we'll see improvement on last year's 31.4 percent mark from three because Vucevic is taking them at a lower volume this year. This right here is the kind of three-point attempt you want to see from him -- he sets the pick, his defender -- Nurkic again -- sits back, expecting that he'll be needed to defend the interior on the drive, but that ultimately leaves Vucevic open from the perimeter. He should take that shot. Last year, Vucevic took 0.6 threes per game that were categorized as open (closest defender four to six feet away), while this year that number is sitting at 0.2, with Vucevic instead almost exclusively only taking that shot if he has a wide open look (defender more than six feet away). Taking those shots only when it's in the perfect spot offensively and passing up on the shot for a higher percentage look in other situations will help his three-point percentage.

Speaking of passing up threes...

Vucevic gets the ball out on the perimeter here, but Jusuf Nurkic overplays for the three defensively. Vucevic, recognizing he doesn't have the space to get the ball off cleanly, puts it on the floor, driving past Nurkic pretty easily since he's out of position. Easy dunk. Smart play.

Okay, how about some post play! Now, a caveat -- among bigs who played 1000 minutes, Vucevic's talent grade is in the 15.5th percentile, which is not a good sign. And honestly, this shot goes in but it's not an ideal situation for him. You can tell how much better Nurkic is defensively when the ball is closer to the hoop, and Nurkic isn't able to make much progress here while facing him down and settles for a longer shot than he would have liked. This is the kind of thing that could tank Vucevic's value -- trying to post too much and not having any player in position for a kick-out.

Last video clip. Vucevic's assists are slightly up this year, and plays like this are a good example of how to run the offense to take advantage of his skills while also getting the ball into the hands of playmakers like Aaron Gordon. Vucevic gets the pass in the elbow area, then makes a good pass to Aaron Gordon, who's swooping in on the perimeter. Vucevic helps Gordon separate from Markelle Fultz, shot goes up, ball goes in, and Vucevic collects the assist. The Magic don't really have a pure point guard after trading Elfrid Payton last year, but bringing Vucevic away from the basket and letting him make these passes can be a big help to make this offense work effectively.

The Fantasy Impact

As with so many other things, context matters here, and for as much as Vucevic looks great so far, we have to recognize two important facts about the Orlando Magic.

1. This team drafted Bamba to be their big man of the future. Vucevic has reached this "good, but not and never will be great" plateau, and while there are a lot of teams that would be happy with his production as a complimentary piece to their stars, the Magic don't have a star for him to complement. Aaron Gordon is good, but is he a top-two guy on a contender? Nope. So you draft Bamba and hope he can be that guy, and in doing so you put a time limit on what Vucevic can accomplish.
2. The Magic are a bad basketball team, and by being a bad basketball team that clock that ticks down to when Vucevic is no longer useful moves quickly, though not so quickly that fantasy owners should be in a rush to move on from Vucevic. He's still a very talented and useful player for both the real team he plays for and the fantasy teams that he plays for, but at some point questions about his long term future in Orlando will pop up. He's a starting-caliber NBA big, and I'm really, really hesitant to suggest that a Bamba/Vucevic frontcourt makes any sense. Vucevic is also a free agent after this year, so watch for him emerging in trade talks down the stretch. That could greatly impact his fantasy value at some point this year.

Still, for now, Vucevic is worth holding onto, especially as the Magic seem destined to not figure out a lot of things about who their team is. In a situation like that, a veteran like Vucevic can be a strong, steadying presence on a team...at least until they decide to give the younger players a try.

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