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Hey all! After a week off, we're back with another advanced stat sleepers column here at RotoBaller!
Every week, I'll scour various sites for advanced stats, tracking data, play type data, and whatever else I can find to help you identify some potential fantasy sleepers moving forward. Maybe we find that a player is collecting a lot of potential assists but they aren't turning into actual assists just yet. Maybe we see that a player has a high usage rate when he shares the floor with certain players and because of an injury, that player will be doing so more. Maybe we can identify a player who'll be really useful in a couple of weeks by noticing a trend early.
So, let's get going. Here are some interesting things I discovered this week while diving into some of my favorite data sites.
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James Harden's Assist and Usage Rate In Brooklyn
James Harden has now played four games with the Brooklyn Nets. He has an assist rate of 42.6%, the fourth-highest mark in the league over that span behind Ricky Rubio, Luka Doncic, and Trae Young.
But that number is actually lower than his 46.9 assist rate during his eight games in Houston this year.
What's that mean?
Well, I think it's a signal that Harden -- now in a place where he actively wants to be -- is going to be a more aggressive offensive player. Too often in the final days in Houston, Harden felt like a passive observer, someone who just wanted the ball out of his hands. His usage rate dropping eight percent from last year helps illustrate that.
His usage rate in Brooklyn is actually lower than it was over those last Houston games, but that's because he's playing with other top scorers in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Harden seems like he'll look to score more when he's the primary ball-handler, but also that he'll spend less time in that role. What will it all mean? Lower production means lower fantasy outputs, so even if Harden is still an elite player, he might not be putting up the mind-blowing numbers you drafted him for on a weekly basis.
Dwight Howard Is Pulling In Offensive Boards
76ers center Dwight Howard has an offensive rebounding rate of 19.4 percent over his past five games, the top mark in the NBA by a good bit over Steven Adams. It's helped Howard have the second-highest overall rebounding rate over that span, behind just Andre Drummond.
Howard's role reminds me a lot of the guy I wrote about last time I did this column, DeMarcus Cousins. There's a really good starting center on his team who limits what exactly he can do, but we know that this player can produce when called upon.
Howard has played over 20 minutes four times this year. His rebounding totals in those games: 11, 11, 4, 18. He's also had double-digit rebounds in his past three games.
I get that there's not a lot of value outside of the boards, but Howard feels like someone you at least have to play whenever Joel Embiid rests.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Is Driving A Bunch
Over the past five games, no player in the NBA has as many drives per game as Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Thunder are a bit of a mess, so leaning heavily on their best player makes sense, and letting SGA run things offensively is a better plan than...well, literally anything else they could do.
SGA is taking 9.4 field goal attempts per game via drives and shooting 61.7 percent on those plays. He also averages 14 passes per game on drives, but that's turned into just two assists per game off these passes. So while he's second over this stretch in passes per game off drives, he's only 12th in assists off of them, probably because he's passing to members of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
But there's upside here with how SGA is being used for another assist or two per game if his teammates can start to knock down shots off of his passes. Keep an eye on things with the Thunder.
Nikola Vucevic Leads The NBA In Catch-and-Shoot Points Per Game
Here's a bit of a surprise: only one player in the NBA averages double-digit points per game off catch-and-shoot looks, and that person is Nikola Vucevic.
His shooting touch from the center position makes him a lethal option on these little pick-and-pop plays, and he's shooting 48.8 percent on these plays. Among players scoring at least six points per game on catch-and-shoot plays, Vucevic has the highest field goal percentage of any pure center. In fact, only a handful of centers even get that many chances as a jump shooter. What Vucevic doing is just incredibly unique.
Vucevic doesn't get the post and elbow touches of Nikola Jokic, but Vucevic does do a lot of things offensively that only a guy like Jokic can really replicate. I thought this would be a season where we saw Vuc's numbers start to slide down, but his shooting remains strong and he's been playing at an All-Star level in the Eastern Conference.
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