X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Basketball: A Deep Dive into Three Interesting NBA Stat Lines

FanDuel DraftKings daily fantasy basketball

Kent Shen looks at NBA players who are have posted surprising fantasy basketball stat lines in the 2017-18 season.

We’re past the halfway mark of the season, and it’s about time to start looking at some numbers, both good and bad, that define what has been a frenetic first half of the NBA season.

It’s important to realize that certain stats take a very long time to normalize, and small sample size can still apply even this far into a player’s campaign. Remember that something like 3-point shooting takes a 750 sample size to before the results become statistically significant, making it extremely difficult to judge a player’s “true” expected 3-point percentage, especially when you take extra practice and mechanical improvements into account.

The best we can do is dig a little deeper and try to explain what we are seeing, and make decisions based on more than just taking numbers at face value. Let’s take a look at 3 interesting players this season, and try to figure out what to make of them.

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

Hoosier Daddy – The Homecoming Breakout

Victor Oladipo PG/SG – Indiana Pacers (24.6ppg 2.6 3/g, 5.5rpg, 4.1apg, 1.9spg, 0.9bpg 49.1fg%, 78.8ft%, 3.0to/g)

Oladipo has been this season’s biggest breakout star, no questions asked. The Pacers guard will probably play in his first all-star game this February, and has so far been the 10th ranked player in 8-cat leagues, greatly exceeding his mid-50s ADP.

My first inclination was that Oladipo has been more aggressive at attacking the basket this season, getting to the rim more and attempting more shots inside, but that actually has not been the case. Oladipo’s shot profile looks very similar to last season’s, with 32% of his shot attempts coming from the rim vs 31% last year, 36% vs 33% midrange and 33% vs 36% from 3. Diving a bit deeper, the only noticeable change is a decrease in corner 3s, making up 4% of his shot attempts vs 12% last year, which makes sense as Dipo was miscast as a spot-up shooter in last years’ Thunder starting lineups.

The biggest real boon for Oladipo is that he’s combined an increased usage rate (from 20.6 to 30.8) with a rediscovery of his great foul-drawing ability from earlier in his career. In his first and second year, Oladipo ranked in the top quarter of the league in drawing contact, getting fouled on 13.3% and 11.6% of his shot attempts respectively. Curiously, those rates dropped to 9.3% and 7.2% in year 3 and 4, but Oladipo is back to being near elite in that category, drawing contact on 11.6% of shot attempts this season.

The extra trips to the line add to his bottom line in the points category and also helps to prop up his FG% a bit and the increased usage has greatly helped his assists numbers. Dipo also has seen his steal rate move back to career norms and that has been a boon for his value as well. Those things are all real. What is bound to regress a bit is the 3-pt percentage, as Oladipo is shooting 6% better from three this year despite being assisted on only 55% of them versus 89% last season. He’s a career 36% three-point shooter, and it’s highly unlikely for a player to improve their 3-pt accuracy that much when taking that many more shots off the bounce vs catch-and-shoots.

This means any regression we can expect from Oladipo will come from FG% and 3pm. I would expect something closer to 46-47% rather than the 49% he currently has ROS, and something like 2.4 3pm vs the 2.6 he has now. For the most part though, Oladipo’s breakout is real, and even with a little bit of regression, you still have yourself a steal.

 

Grit And Grind No More – Marc’s Odd Makeover

Marc Gasol C – Memphis Grizzlies (18.4ppg 1.4 3/g, 8.5rpg, 4.0apg, 0.7spg, 1.6bpg 41.8fg%, 82.9ft%, 3.0to/g)

If you only looked at where Marc Gasol’s place in the rankings sits, you’d think this was another typical season for one of the most consistent fantasy performers of the last few years, but this season has been anything but normal for the big Spaniard. He’s still performing as the top-30 asset we’re all accustomed to, but he’s done it this season in very different ways than he usually has.

The first number that jumps out is Gasol’s punt-level field goal percentage. Getting 41.8% on 15.1 attempts per game from your center almost forces you into a punt FG% build and most people who drafted Gasol didn’t expect that to be the case. The danger with Gasol’s line this season is that, while he’s still returning the value you expected as a whole, his profile as a fantasy asset is very different from what we’re accustomed to, and many who drafted their teams with a certain strategy in mind thought a typical Gasol season would fit their build, but now have a player who isn’t a great fit with what they’re doing.

While most people would think that Gasol’s struggles from the field can be attributed to him shooting more 3s and expanding his range, that only tells a part of the story. Gasol’s 3-point attempts aren’t up that much from last season, he’s shooting 25% of his shots from 3 vs 21% last year. He was hitting his 3s at a 39% clip last season and has saw that number drop to 34%, a drop for sure, but those two things combined don’t make up for a drop in FG% so big, that it can turn a center into a worse FG% drag than most guards.

The bigger contributor to the drop is Gasol not having Mike Conley for most of the season. The Conley/Gasol pick-and-roll has been a large part of Memphis’ offense for as long as this team has been together, and missing Conley for such a long stretch of time has really shone a light on Gasol’s shortcomings as a primary option.  The Grizzlies have been almost 10 points per 100 possessions worse with Gasol on the court than off, a startling number that is largely due to massive drops in efficiency inside.

Gasol is shooting 4% worse at the rim and 11% worse from short mid-range, a large byproduct of losing the efficient looks he got before with Conley running the attack, as he started the season around his normal shooting numbers before Conley got hurt. What’s keeping his value afloat is a career high 8.5 rebounds per game, as well as trying a career high with 1.6 blocks a game. This has been a byproduct of Gasol playing more stay at home defense in the paint, supported by a career high 21.1% of opponents’ missed field goals rebounded.

Gasol is a huge example of how a players’ fantasy profile can change. It’s just not every day that a player can get a complete makeover, and maintain a ranking that looks so similar. While Gasol can’t be called a draft bust this season based on what he’s returned overall, he could be stealthily sinking teams for owners who weren’t ready for this change, and have been trying to fit a square peg into a circular hole all season.

 

Nurked Efficiency – The Breakout That Wasn’t

Jusuf Nurkic C – Portland Trail Blazers (14.6ppg 0.0 3/g, 8.0rpg, 1.9apg, 0.7spg, 1.2bpg 45.8fg%, 64.2ft%, 2.6to/g)

The conventional wisdom during draft season was that Jusuf Nurkic was poised for a breakout if he could A) avoid injury, and B) stay out of foul trouble. Nurkic has remained healthy for the majority of this season and has cut his foul rate from 4.5 fouls per 36 minutes post trade to 4.1, but his production so far is still leaving a lot to be desired, as Nurkic hasn’t even been a top-100 player so far this season despite being drafted as a top-60 guy with upside.

The first sore spot in his profile is the efficiency numbers. The low 60s free throw percentage was expected and fits the norm, but it’s the low field goal % and high turnovers for a center that’s working as an anchor for his overall value. Lack of a 3-point shot and a troubling trend in shot distribution has Nurk ranking in the bottom 7% in effective field goal %, a putrid 45.8% mark that looks even worse when it’s attached to a center.

Nurkic is shooting 47% of his shots from midrange on below average efficiency, way up from 30% last season. While Nurkic has never been a good finisher at the rim, with a well below average 57% conversion rate, he is only hitting 38% of his midrange shots, and the large increase in his attempts from there is keeping his overall FG% much lower than it should be. This shot profile leads to Nurkic ranking in the bottom 10% in points per shot attempt, at an anemic 99.6, and the danger is how much longer a team with playoff aspirations like Portland can continue handing him a 28.1 usage rate.

Nurkic is a restricted free agent at the end of this season and there may come a point where Portland realizes he’s not part of their future plans if he doesn’t improve certain facets of his game, and without the high usage and good minutes propping up his counting stats, his value could weaken as the season progresses and Portland looks to feed more efficient options.

In addition to those problems, Nurkic’s tantalizing per-36 defensive numbers have not translated well with the additional playing time he’s received. In his Denver days, he looked like a per-minute beast, averaging 1.6 steals/36 and 2.9 blocks/36 during the 2015-2016 season. Those numbers are now 1.0 and 1.6, which would be fine if he was averaging 32 minutes a game, but his offensive shortcomings and high foul tendencies limit him closer to 27-28, and thus, his defensive numbers are not living up to the promise many felt he had.

Nurkic is still only 23 years old, and he could definitely improve on his weaknesses and add new dimensions to his game and become a better player, but most of us in redraft leagues don’t have the time to wait for him to reach his potential.

 

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis

NBA DFS Premium Subscription

Get a free trial of our powerful NBA Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Cheat Sheets, and NBA Lineup Optimizer & Generator with daily matchup projections.

Win more. Try the most advanced lineup optimizer in daily fantasy basketball.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF