Breakout Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Mike Carter's Picks

March 22, 2026

Mike Carter's 2026 fantasy baseball pitcher breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued starting pitchers and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

One of the best parts of fantasy baseball is the research into who the potential breakout stars could be for any given season. And then when you land one of those guys, and they produce, it's fun to antagonize your friends with an "I told you so" moment.

In this article, we will identify 10 breakout pitchers for 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. For my purposes here, I chose pitchers outside the top 100 who are being undervalued so far in my drafts. There are many more that can be considered, obviously. And we all see different things.

So, let's dive into 10 breakout pitchers I am looking at for 2026 fantasy drafts. Keep these guys handy if you find yourself in need of starting pitching. Depending on your draft strategy and philosophy, these are pitchers who could really help you fill the stat sheets if things break correctly. All ADP is taken from NFBC drafts (from March 1 through March 21).

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP - 131

Pepiot has become a bit of a fantasy darling this winter, and rightfully so. Pepiot won 11 games in 2025, making 31 starts. Across those starts, he earned a 3.86 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts in 167 innings. He has been climbing draft boards this spring. Players seem to expect a step forward this year, but even if you get the same as last year, you would be satisfied with those results.

Pepiot could get to more innings this summer, and if he does, the potential for him to get near 200 strikeouts is there. No reason to think that he would not get 175 innings, and if he does that, even more counting stats with good ratios await you.

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP - 182

Jax is the only relief pitcher in this piece, but he could explode on the scene if he has the Tampa Bay closer job. Erstwhile closer Pete Fairbanks moved across the state to Miami, leaving an opening at closer for the Rays. Jax could be the guy to fill it despite many feeling this will be a committee situation.

Jax has been behind two excellent closers in Fairbanks and Jhoan Duran. He could shed that shadow and be in the spotlight. Check out his Statcast below. A 35% K%, adding with insane whiff and chase percentages, is video game stuff.

The Rays are contemplating using Garrett Cleavinger and Edwin Uceta (who will not be ready to start the season due to a shoulder injury), but Jax is the best arm in this bullpen. It feels like 30 saves could be in reach with the closing opportunity.

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

ADP - 255

Smith is now renowned as a Rule 5 pick who actually excelled in his role for the rebuilding Chicago White Sox last year. Smith went 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and 145 strikeouts in 146 innings. He was 4-1 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts in 59 innings in the second half.

Smith gained velocity as the season went on, while many other starting pitchers faltered and lost velocity. See for yourself below. The fastball velocity helped him generate more whiffs, and he cut his walk rate in the season's second half, which led to better results.

Here's the thing: Smith is 25, and there is no reason to hold him back. Smith could easily pitch 160-175 innings and notch that many strikeouts as well. With the White Sox seemingly improving, he could even get a few more wins. Some folks will not draft Smith because he faces other teams' ace pitchers. I don't worry about that.

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

ADP - 283

Cantillo should be the fifth man in the Cleveland rotation to start the season. He should have been getting more serious consideration earlier in drafts this year. Pitchers with 26.9% K% do not grow on trees, and he looks like he could break out this year.

Look at his splits below. Once Cantillo moved to the rotation in July, you can see the results. What caught my eye were the four wins, the 2.48 ERA, and the 1.12 WHIP. The strikeout rate diminished, but he still got 54 punchouts in 54 innings.

I know it might be best to keep expectations a bit lower, but Cantillo looks to me like a pitcher who could win 1o games, have an ERA between 3.75 and 4.00, and get 140 innings and 140 strikeouts. He is a great deal at his price point.

Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

ADP - 308

It feels like Soriano is overlooked in many leagues. My best guess is that he toils in relative obscurity and that people are wary of his strikeout rate. Yet he has the highest ground-ball rate in MLB, literally in the 100th percentile (66% GB%).

Below, note the growth in Soriano's swing and miss percentage. He added a splitter in the second half of the year, which helped reduce his 97 MPH sinker usage while largely abandoning his slider. Soriano looks like he will use the sinker, knuckle curve, and his splitter as his primary pitches.

At age 27, the kid gloves are off, and Soriano could easily get to 175 innings this season. He could easily get 160 strikeouts while providing your team with an ERA between 3.75 and 4.00. That is a pitcher worth rostering in many leagues.

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

ADP - 311

Doesn't it feel like Meyer is on these lists annually? He has battled back from injuries and is still only 27 this season. He did not have great results in 2025: 3-5, 4.73 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts in 64 innings. So why be high on him?

For one, he is healthy and has looked great this spring, even though we know those stats do not count for our standings. He has struck out 12 hitters in seven spring innings. He had a 49.7% ground-ball rate last year, which, with an improved strikeout rate, will lead to better results.

Meyer will start the season in the rotation after Miami announced it was sending down Braxton Garrett and keeping Janson Junk in their starting five. Meyer put on some weight this winter (not the weight that I put on, mind you) and worked to tighten up his sweeper.

With health, this feels like a great flyer to me, and a guy who could break out this year after years on top prospects lists. Don't forget about Meyer past pick 300.

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

ADP - 315

Cavalli showed a glimpse of what he can do last year in 10 starts with the Washington Nationals. Cavalli went 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA, a high 1.48 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts in 48 innings. Moreover, it was great to see him be healthy for an extended period.

Check out the Statcast below, which belies his mediocre results. The high ground-ball rateat 55.1% is elite. Health has been a major obstacle, and Cavalli proved he was back last year and seems ready to take the next step. See Statcast below.

Expect 25 starts this year and 140 innings with an ERA around 4.25 and 130 strikeouts. If the Nationals decide to turn him loose, he could get even more results.

Mick Abel, Minnesota Twins

ADP - 344

Abel looks like he might be able to take the next step into becoming a reliable starting pitcher this season with Minnesota. His price could skyrocket, especially with his excellent spring training.

Abel won the fifth starting job, and for good reason: this spring, he has made five starts with a 2.00 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 18 innings. Could this be an indication of things to come?

Abel did not have great results last year, split between Philadelphia and Minnesota, going 3-4 with a bloated 6.23 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. However, a deeper dive looks like he may have had some bad luck; his xERA was more than a run lower, and his xFIP was 4.33.

A reduced 66% strand rate should normalize as well. The once-deep Twins' rotation is now marred by injury (Pablo Lopez) and ineffectiveness (Bailey Ober). Abel could stick all year and be a deep sleeper in many leagues.

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP - 390

I have been quietly snatching up shares of Liberatore in early drafts all winter. Looking at last year's results, you might think I am losing it: he was 8-12, with a 4.21 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and only 122 strikeouts in 151 innings. So what is interesting here?

I love that he does not walk hitters; a low 6.2% last year over those 151 innings. He has continued that this spring with a 15:1 K:BB ratio over 15 innings, with a 2.70 ERA. Liberatore made his final spring tune-up on Friday and went five scoreless innings against the New York Mets.

What I like to see even more is the swing-and-miss stuff he has shown this spring. Improving his strikeout rate would unlock a next level for Liberatore, who, at age 26, could be stepping into his own in 2026. Keep him handy at the end of drafts if you are looking for a pitcher flyer.

Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP - 422

Harrison has been traded twice in the last few months, but Milwaukee could be the perfect place for him. It looks like he will be in the fourth spot in a new-look rotation for the Brew Crew. Harrison really needs an opportunity to make 25 starts, and he could have this here.

With all due respect to my good friend Brian "Bubba" Entrekin, who loves Harrison, it's easy to see why people should take a longer look at Harrison. Still only 24, the lefty made some strides in his velocity last season, adding two ticks up on his fastball from 2024.

Results have been middling so far in his career, with a 9-9 record with a 4.39 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 191 strikeouts in 192 MLB innings. Yet at his age and thus price point, I am willing to wager that he improves in Milwaukee and becomes a reliable starter.

Happy drafting season, my friends. Is there any better time of the year?  Good luck, and most importantly, have fun with it. Fantasy baseball is about having fun more than anything.

Finally, be sure to check in on your mental health and that of those around you as we near the end of another long winter. Many are struggling right now. Always reach out if you need someone to talk to. My DMS are always open: @mdrc0508.

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