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We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We have just three more gameweeks left and after the craziness of the last set of fixtures, who knows what this weekend will bring. We do have an additional midweek fixture this week and next week sees two additional fixtures, so planning ahead for the remainder of the season in FPL is vital. Let's just hope we have something of a more normal set of results...
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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Saturday, May 13, 2023
Leeds United (+350) vs. Newcastle United (-145) - 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 – 3 Newcastle United
Leeds nearly sprung an upset at Manchester City last week as the Sam Allardyce rescue mission almost got off to a great start. It doesn't get much easier as they face third-place Newcastle this weekend. Newcastle still needs a couple of wins to secure a top-four finish this season. Only the league's top two have more away points than Newcastle (30), so they'll be expecting to pick up the three points.
I still don't want any Leeds player in FPL, so they're still an easy fade. For Newcastle, with their extra midweek game, you really want to try and stack three of their players for this gameweek. Nick Pope (20.6%) and Kieran Trippier (65.7%) have been popular plays all season but Pope has just two clean sheets in his last 14 appearances while Trippier is averaging less than two points per game over the last seven matches.
Jacob Murphy has three goals in his last four games and hit the post last weekend. He's certainly an interesting lower-rostered (3.5%) play. Miguel Almirón has started just once since his return from injury five games ago and I doubt he starts both matches this week. Joelinton and Joe Willock are dart throws and could score double-digit points as easily as they could both blank.
Up front, it's a choice between Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson. Last weekend, they both started and Isak hit the post, coming closest to scoring. I feel like Isak is the more likely of the pair to start both games but Eddie Howe could just as easily start one on Saturday and the other on Thursday, making this a tough call as to who to play. Isak (12.1%) is on more teams than Wilson (9.0%), so depending if you're chasing or holding on could dictate who you pick.
Aston Villa (+125) vs. Tottenham (+200) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 – 1 Tottenham
Villa's season is in danger of petering out following back-to-back defeats and just one win in four games. They've also only scored twice in those four games. Tottenham's chances of a top-four finish are very slim and they will need to avoid defeat here if they are to maintain a firm grip on European qualification for next season. They haven't won in their last six away games.
Villa's lack of goals is a concern and Ollie Watkins has now gone four games without scoring. Jacob Ramsey has also had a barren four games and Alex Moreno is the only Villa player I'd strongly consider this week given his attacking propensity (three assists in 13 games). He will also directly be facing Pedro Porro, who has been somewhat lacking defensively.
Speaking of Porro, he does actually make an interesting FPL play. He picked up his second assist last week to go along with his two goals this season (11 starts). Harry Kane remains the premier option for Tottenham and the second-best striker in FPL. He's a safe bet almost every week but Son Heung-min has also been in good form lately, averaging 5.7 points over his last 10 games.
Premium performances 💎#FPL #TOTCRY pic.twitter.com/bKZDc39jMV
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) May 6, 2023
Chelsea (-205) vs. Nottingham Forest (+550) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 3 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Chelsea finally won last week, ending a seven-game winless streak. It was also seven games since they had scored more than twice in a game, something they've only done once at home all season. But they face a Forest side that just conceded three goals against Southampton and the 41 goals conceded away from home is tied for most in the league. Forest has lost their last seven away games, conceding 18 goals in the process.
I still don't trust Chelsea players but they do have one player that features at the end of the article. João Félix might finally get a start after scoring off the bench last week but I don't trust Frank Lampard to start their best forward.
For Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White continued his excellent form and now has three goals and three assists in his last four games. I wouldn't bet against him adding to the 15-goal involvements he has this season. Danilo has scored in three straight games but is a risky play for a Forest team that struggles for goals on their travels.
Crystal Palace (-115) vs. Bournemouth (+300) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 0 Bournemouth
Palace's new manager bump appears to have ended. They've won once in four games and their 4-3 win against West Ham United in that span is the only game in which they've scored. Only a complete freak set of results will see Bournemouth relegated but I suspect their efforts this season might have taken their toll and they struggle to get to the end of the season.
Palace's recent struggles to score are reminiscent of what we've seen all season, so I'm not confident in any of their midfielders or forwards. I do still like Eberechi Eze, but given the way this week's fixtures are, it's unlikely I can find a scenario in which I'd start any Palace midfielder or striker. They do still feature later on, though. I don't see any Bournemouth player I'd want to start this week, either.
Manchester United (-260) vs. Wolves (+650) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 – 0 Wolves
Consecutive 1-0 defeats away from home have left Manchester United looking over their shoulders and their away record against top-half teams (four points from nine games) has been dreadful. But at home, they're riding a 15-game unbeaten run and five consecutive clean sheets. Wolves are now safe from relegation with nothing on the line and their six-game winless run away from home will likely continue.
At this stage, you almost have to throw out any Manchester United player's stats away from home and just focus on their home record. They do have the standout option of the week featuring later on while Bruno Fernandes will surely add to the two-goal involvements he's tallied in his last 10 games before the season ends.
Luke Shaw (16.8%) remains heavily rostered but his recent starts coming at center-back leaves him much less likely to pick up an assist. He isn't a sure starter in FPL. David De Gea's howler last time out shouldn't stop you from rostering him this week and the likelihood of a clean sheet makes him arguably the top 'keeper option this week.
David de Gea will not want to see this one again! 🫣
Saïd Benrahma is gifted the opener of the game pic.twitter.com/5YOORsFsQ4
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) May 7, 2023
Southampton (+180) vs. Fulham (+150) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 2 – 2 Fulham
Southampton's defeat at Nottingham Forest all but confirmed their relegation and made it 10 games without a win. It's been feast or famine in that time with five games seeing them blank and three games seeing them score three times. They've conceded 23 goals in that span. Fulham doesn't have anything meaningful to play for but has won three of their last six games. They haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 11 matches.
Southampton's Carlos Alcaraz has two goals and an assist in four games and makes an interesting dart throw of a play. James Ward-Prowse ended his streak of six games without a goal involvement on Monday by scoring and assisting. Fulham can call upon top scorer Aleksandar Mitrović again following his lengthy suspension but he isn't someone I'd want to rely on this week. Harry Wilson has four goal involvements in six games while Willian has four in four, so both make interesting options this week.
Sunday, May 14, 2023
Brentford (+105) vs. West Ham United (+240) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 1 West Ham United
Brentford has likely left themselves too much to do in order to qualify for Europe next season but their home record remains excellent with Arsenal and Newcastle the only sides to have beaten Brentford on their travels. West Ham should be safe and they have their European Conference semi-final games on either side of this fixture, so they may prioritize that rather than the league games.
I'm fine fading Ivan Toney on the road but he's scored in each of his last three home games, which have alternated between four consecutive blanks away from home. It's a similar story for Bryan Mbeumo, who has registered nine of his 13 goal involvements at home this season. David Raya is an interesting option in the goal should West Ham opt to rest some of their stars.
As much as I like Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paquetá, Saïd Benrahma, and Michail Antonio as options, I don't have enough trust in West Ham starting them. With six members of your team hopefully consisting of Brighton and Newcastle players, I don't see how you can accommodate any of this group.
Everton (+750) vs. Manchester City (-300) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 0 – 2 Manchester City
Everton's stunning victory at Brighton on Monday ended a seven-game winless streak but they have only lost three of their last 10 games. Two of those losses came in their last two home games, conceding seven in those defeats. City's march toward the title continues and they're finding a way to eke out wins recently. They've won their last 10 EPL games, scoring 29 goals.
Everton's outburst on Monday will make them a popular underdog pick this week but I don't see them getting anything from this game and don't want anything to do with them from an FPL standpoint. City only needs eight points from their final four games, so they can afford to drop points if they choose to rotate their team with a focus on next week's Champions League semi-final second-leg game against Real Madrid.
While I think Kevin De Bruyne gets a rest this weekend, star striker Erling Haaland will likely start again. After his dud last week, he will be keen to get back on the scoresheet. Which midfielder City starts on Sunday is anyone's guess but Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez both started last weekend and missed the midweek Champions League tie. I'd fancy them both to start on Sunday.
Haaland blanked having been presented with the joint-most big chances he’s had in a match ❌#FPL #MCILEE pic.twitter.com/NDCRD0Nj24
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) May 6, 2023
Arsenal (-130) vs. Brighton (+310) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 2 Brighton
Arsenal's gutsy yet clinical performance at Newcastle has kept the title race going but I wonder how much last week's win took out of them. It was their first clean sheet in seven games and they'd conceded 12 goals in their previous five games. Brighton's shock hammering on Monday harmed their bid for European qualification but they've lost back-to-back games just once this season, back in mid-October.
Arsenal's captain Martin Ødegaard has five goals in five games and is now the fourth-highest points scorer in FPL this season. Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka are also top five points-scoring midfielders this season while Gabriel Jesus has five goals in seven starts since his return from a knee injury. Any combo of this group is worth rostering.
Brighton lacks a striker you can rely on in FPL but does have one featured later on. Pervis Estupiñán has six assists this season but just one in his last 12 games. Given their remaining fixtures, I'd probably be more keen to roster Brighton's attacking players. Solly March left Monday's game with a hamstring injury, so I'd be reluctant to start him this week. Kaoru Mitoma, Alexis Mac Allister, and Pascal Groß are all must-starts if you roster them.
Monday, May 15, 2023
Leicester City (+400) vs. Liverpool (-175) - 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 – 2 Liverpool
Leicester's shellacking on Monday leaves them in real peril. Any hopes that new manager Dean Smith would tighten up their defense were thrown out the window and it's now 20 games without a clean sheet. Liverpool's sixth consecutive league win has left them ready to pounce on any mistake from Manchester United and Newcastle United in a bid for a top-four finish. They've also scored 17 goals in their winning run.
Leicester has scored eight goals in their last four games and the trio of Jamie Vardy (three), Harvey Barnes (two), and James Maddison (four) are the leaders for goal involvements in that time. I'd likely only seek to play one this week with Maddison leading the way.
Liverpool's Mo Salah continues his reign as the 'King of Midfielders' in FPL. With 11 goals and two assists in his last 12 games, you shouldn't bet against him adding to his points tally (217). Trent Alexander-Arnold is averaging six points per game over his last seven starts and will be expecting to add to his defender-leading assist tally (10). I also like Curtis Jones this week, having started a career-high eight straight games against such a flimsy defense. On only 0.1% of teams, he's my favorite contrarian play this week.
Consistent excellence 🌟
Mohamed Salah is the first player to reach the 200-point mark in six consecutive #FPL seasons! 👑 pic.twitter.com/CvaeRSNv1n
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) May 4, 2023
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Leeds 1 – 3 Newcastle | Newcastle -145 | o2.5 -165 | Yes -160 |
| Aston Villa 1 – 1 Tottenham | Draw +265 | u2.5 +110 | Yes -175 |
| Chelsea 3 – 1 Notts Forest | Chelsea -205 | o2.5-120 | Yes -105 |
| Crystal Palace 1 – 0 Bournemouth | Palace -115 | u2.5 -115 | No +105 |
| Man United 2 – 0 Wolves | Man United -260 | u2.5 +130 | No -110 |
| Southampton 2 – 2 Fulham | Draw +235 | o2.5 -105 | Yes -145 |
| Brentford 2 – 1 West Ham | Brentford +105 | o2.5 -110 | Yes -140 |
| Everton 0 – 2 Man City | Man City -300 | u2.5 +125 | No -120 |
| Arsenal 2 – 2 Brighton | Draw +310 | o2.5 -180 | Yes -190 |
| Leicester 1 – 2 Liverpool | Liverpool -175 | o2.5 -205 | Yes -170 |
| Season totals | 45/113 | 68/113 | 49/113 |
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks
This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week. You should be starting as many Newcastle and Brighton players as you can this week, so the below section is for those teams with only one fixture this week.
Stack the D
Crystal Palace failing to score in three of their last four games has me concerned about rostering their forward players but they do make a sneaky stack defensively. Roy Hodgson has a record of low-scoring games as Palace manager and they've kept a clean sheet in three of their last seven home games, including against Liverpool and Newcastle United. Before their 4-3 win against West Ham, Palace had gone seven home games without conceding more than one.
Unloved Nuggets
Frank Lampard seems to have been the only Chelsea manager this season to like Conor Gallagher (0.5% rostered) and the England midfielder has repaid that faith by scoring twice in his last four games. He's started four of their last five games and gets to face Nottingham Forest, whose defense we've already highlighted as being a weakness. Don't be shocked if Gallagher has a productive end to the season.
Avoid the Trap
Kevin De Bruyne is key to Manchester City's hopes of a treble but they might just want to avoid risking him away at Everton in what will be a physical encounter. He played 90 minutes last weekend and again on Tuesday as they drew 1-1 with Real Madrid (De Bruyne scoring City's goal) and will be the catalyst to a second-leg win that'll see them reach the Champions League final for a second time.
Stepping up when needed, Kevin De Bruyne 🎯
Man City are level in Madrid!#UCL pic.twitter.com/Hghto1D1oE
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) May 9, 2023
For the Watchlist
Julio Enciso has impressed in flashes for Brighton. He was bought on at halftime on Monday and looked like Brighton's liveliest player. He's got two goals and two assists in his last seven appearances with only three coming as a starter. Brighton might look to use Enciso to spark their season back into life after Monday's humiliating defeat. With another double gameweek next week, Enciso could be a nice alternative to the Brighton FPL stars.
Lock of the Week
Since the World Cup, Marcus Rashford has played 10 home games. In those games, he has accumulated 92 points and now gets to face a team that lost 6-0 in their last away game. While I don't believe we see a similar scoreline, Rashford at home is as close to a banker as Haaland at home, so I'm riding with him this weekend.
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
