X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Thinking Out Loud: Early Industry Mock Draft Results

Due to being professional fiends, we here at RotoBaller held our first mock draft of the 2017 fantasy baseball season this week. Mocks are great but constantly ruined by trolling fools who can't commit past two rounds. Luckily, my job grants me access to folks who want to be there. We still troll each other, but the draft's integrity isn't compromised.

We put together a traditional 5x5, 23-round mock with two catchers, a corner and middle infielder, and five outfielders. The pre-draft discussion was centered on how unsettled the default rankings were, which had a say in the weirdness of where some guys went.

You'll see more on that in the bigger piece breaking down the draft as a whole. Today, we simply focus on my saga. Do note that there were zero bench slots, which is always a strange (but fun) wrinkle.

Editor's note: for even more draft prep, visit our awesome 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It has lots of in-depth staff rankings and draft strategy columns. You will find tiered rankings for every position, 2017 impact rookie rankings, AL/NL only league ranks and lots more. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

Analyzing My Mock Draft

I was "blessed" with the 10th pick and decided to test my rankings with a “best player available” approach, at least to start. Here's what I came up with:

My Draft

 

After the Lindor selection, I had 18 picks until my next choice and had time to step back and appreciate the blend of power, speed and positional eligibility I had gathered. Even if Machado steals zero bases again, Turner and Lindor provide a base while chipping in some pop alongside the power of MM and Cruz.

 

Early-to-Mid Rounds

I'm still unsure how I feel about spending a second rounder on Turner, but my rankings said "jump". I'm buying Cruz and this improved BABIP of the past two seasons thanks to a few more grounders, yet his crazy strength still keeps his homer potential above 40. I'd never enter a draft planning to select those four, but I'll take it at the 10 pick.

Round 5 brought little offensive temptation. Billy Hamilton was on the board, but I didn't need his speed and was swayed away from other infielders by already potentially having three already (I envisioned Turner sticking in the OF considering our five-OF quota, but still). I’m a huge Justin Verlander fan after seeing him post a career-high 12% swinging-strike rate last season, so having him as my SP1 is solid. Stephen Strasburg is polarizing, but I still love his upside. I’ll take his durability fleas over the performance slips of Carlos Carrasco, Jacob deGrom, and Chris Archer – the other pitchers taken in the sixth round.

Earlier, I said I didn’t need Hamilton’s speed, which really meant I didn’t want to pay for what comes with it. He's grown, but still has too many holes in his game. Meanwhile, Dee Gordon was sitting there a little later in Round 7. This was acceptable. This allowed me to push Turner to OF and not have to fret about speed anymore. Gordon’s 2016 was marred by PEDs and an underwhelming .268 average, but he still went 30-for-37 on steal attempts in 79 games (325 ABs). Even Steamer projects his average to bounce back to .278, which would be just fine with me alongside ~90 runs and ~60 steals.

 

Middle-to-Late Rounds

After selections of Zach Britton, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana, I decided to see what going C-C in Rounds 11 and 12 would look like. With Willson Contreras’ name creeping into the draft window, the time had to be now. I believe in the bat skills he’s shown in 2015/16, though that 23.5% HR/FB rate won’t hold. I’m also willing to invest in Yasmani Grandal one last time, as he’s turned in an amazing half of a season in each of the past two years. Maybe he can turn in a full year in 2017? Admittedly, there was likely no need to select him this early, but we’re seeing the plan through.

With so many hitters on the squad, Round 14 was probably time for my SP3. Cue reaching for Sean Manaea, who compiled a 2.44 ERA in his final 14 appearances of 2016. Oakland won’t give him the wins he deserves, but man I love his developing skills in that park. I thought about going pitcher again, but my draft board said Kendrys Morales had slipped too far. Toronto should be kind to his rekindled bat, as Kauffman Stadium’s suppressing ways (fourth-lowest HR park factor in 2016 according to ESPN) have been traded in for Canada’s power-friendly confines.

Next came the reclamation project of Dallas Keuchel, who has to remember how to paint corners. If he takes a few steps back to form, then he should be a strong pick with Houston supporting him. Dellin Betances followed, who I’ll take six rounds after Andrew Miller any day. With his incredible K/9 anchor in tow, Tanner Roark (aka the watered-down Kyle Hendricks) was welcome with his ratio relief and a healthy chance at a winning record.

I had Robbie Ray queued up for my next pick, who I got in Round 20 anyway (a steal with his upside), but realized I needed a fifth outfielder. With an ability to DH and stay fresh in the AL, I love Matt Holliday's chances of 25+ homers. Not only is he in the AL East, but gets to call Yankee Stadium – the park that easily led the league in the aforementioned HR park factor – home. With an ability to drive the ball to right field, Holliday should be a popular late-round pick.

 

End-of-Draft Picks

My draft ended with two more power bats and a strong closer. Moose is another late-round target of mine, whose injury-shortened 2016 means he won’t stand out on draft boards when you sort by stats. Before tearing his ACL, he had hit seven bombs in 104 ABs thanks to a six percent jump in hard-hit rate (31.5% to 37.4%). This is a small sample size, of course, but his 2015 looked legitimate alongside a dip in swinging-strike rate to boot (7.1% to 5.8%). He’s never been a high BABIP guy, but I like the tools present here for his age-28 season.

Joseph is yet another late bat who can flirt with 30 homers, especially with Ryan Howard gone. Steamer is projecting him for 28 homers in 496 ABs after his hard-hitting (36.6% hard-hit rate), fly-ball happy (45.1% FB rate) ways of 2016. Meanwhile, Kelley displayed a career-best 15.7% swinging-strike rate and 1.71 BB/9 en route to a 2.11 SIERA last season. He should close for Washington in 2017. Sign me up!

 

Draft Conclusions

Overall, I was happy with how the draft went. I was thrilled with the amount of pitching and cheap power to choose from in the mid-rounds that I probably took superior players for granted in the middle rounds. I prefer cheap power to cheap speed, mostly because I can bank on power getting a chance to play. I won’t turn away guys like Rajai Davis or Jarrod Dyson, but steals really only lead to runs while power leads to runs and RBIs. As a result, I'll buy store-brand power more readily.

Starting pitchers also plateau pretty hard to me after the top 20 or so, which led to my coasting on them until late. Of course, this isn’t going to work all that well for me in rotisserie formats, but in head-to-head leagues I will be going hitters early and often yet again. I also don’t need to attack infield early, but I feel a lot better with the end results when I do.

Be on the lookout for my next piece, which will include reactions from all participants that’ll illustrate our steals and reaches of the draft.

 

More Mock Drafts & Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Terrance Ferguson

Could Benefit from Rams Scheme Changes
Jacob Cowing

Could Handle Gadget Role in San Francisco
Jayden Higgins

to Start for Texans Right Away?
Sauce Gardner

Agrees to $120.4 Million Contract Extension
Marvin Mims Jr.

Could be on Track for First 1,000-Yard Season
Jaylen Johnson

Chargers Place Jaylen Johnson on PUP List
Dereck Lively II

Undergoes Right-Foot Surgery Tuesday
Kendrick Bourne

Kayshon Boutte Fighting for Final Spots
Isaiah Collier

Logs a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Monday
DeMario Douglas

Kyle Williams "Locks" for Receiving Corps
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Finalizing Massive Extension
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Expected to Ease Anthony Richardson Sr. Back in
Devin Carter

Posts 17 Points Versus Suns
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 17 Points in Summer League Loss
Terry McLaurin

Undecided on Whether he Will Report to Training Camp
Colston Loveland

Says his Shoulder is 100 Percent
Harrison Ingram

has Impressive Outing Against Jazz
Sam Williams

has Potential to be Elite Edge Rusher
Shemar Stewart

Considering Going Back to College?
Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions Want Jahmyr Gibbs "More Involved" in Passing Game
Jordan Addison

Could be Facing Three-Game Suspension
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Kyle Filipowski

Records 35-Point Double-Double Against Spurs
Kel'el Ware

Dominates Against Celtics
Kon Knueppel

Gets Going Monday
Matas Buzelis

Puts Up 28 Points in Win Over Pacers
Reed Sheppard

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
Paul George

Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Najee Harris

Likely to Miss Time at Start of Training Camp
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Collin Morikawa

Misses The Cut at Genesis Scottish Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 13th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooks Koepka

Finishes Tied For 32nd at LIV Andalucia
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For 34th at Genesis Scottish Open
Jason Day

Misses The Cut at John Deere Classic
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Cam Taylor-Britt

has Benefited From Addition of Al Golden
Rome Odunze

Could Take Off in Year 2
RJ Harvey

to Get "Significant" Work in Broncos' Passing Game
Jackson Powers-Johnson

More Comfortable Heading into Year 2
Joel Embiid

Participating in Partial Basketball Activities
Victor Wembanyama

Officially Cleared to Return After Blood-Clot Recovery
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF