RADIO
As we approach the start of the 2021/22 regular season the fantasy stakes get higher. That's why it's time to start unveiling all of our cards, make masterful plays, and edge the competition. And when that competition is part of a dynasty league, that means you not only have to count on present-day data but also projections for future performance with youth coming at a premium.
In order to find potential targets and fades for those of you continuing/starting your dynasty leagues, I have filtered data to give me only players who played last year at 23 years of age or younger. As I explored in my researching column, players aged 21 years old put up the best FP averages among all "young" players in the NBA, then most either leave the league or hit a sophomore-wall, and finally those who make it past age-23 enter a steady stage of improvement until the peak is reached at around 27/28 years of age.
You need to get some shares of super-young players (19-to-21 years old) to sell them high once they explode, or get some seemingly "declining" guys on the 22-to-23 clip to exploit their still-ahead best days. Obviously, the same goes in the opposite direction, avoiding risky players not looking good in terms of future upside. Today, we're exploring four young targets to consider in dynasty leagues at the Center position. Let's get to it!
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Dynasty Fantasy Basketball Targets - Centers
Robert Williams III, C - Boston Celtics
Even though he's played three seasons as a pro already, Williams has the third-fewest total FP of the four players highlighted in this column. That's not surprising, though, considering Williams has been a role player for the Celtics in those three seasons, what has him stuck at just 1,653 MP over that span. On the positive side of things: Robert Williams is an absolute per-minute performer. Williams has a career average of 1.15 FP/min (league average at just 0.90), which is borderline insane.
In the history of the L going back to the 1990 season, only 10 centers have averaged more FP/min than Williams before their fourth year in the league (min. 1500 MP over that one-to-three-years span): Embiid, David Robinson, Shaq, Jokic, KAT, Chris Webber, Arbydas Sabonis, Amar'e, Mourning, and Cousins. Marvelous company, that one. Also, if you're not aware, that makes it three players in the past eight years getting to that 1.15 mark: Embiid, KAT, and Williams. That's it, that's the list.
On a year-by-year basis, Williams has gone from averaging 1.02 FP/min to 1.17 and lastly 1.27 last year. If the minutes get a little bit higher (we'll see, though, as Boston is bringing back Al Horford and Enes Kanter), Williams has everything to be a stud as good as they come. And that will happen sooner or later, making Willimas a surefire target in dynasty formats with upside for right-now production on the blocks (1.8 BPG) and FG% (.721) cats with solid scoring and rebounding numbers (15-13 dub-dub average per 36-min).
Isaiah Stewart, PF/C - Detroit Pistons
I'm here launching queries to my database of player-seasons, and I'm getting 52 such instances since the 1990 years for rookie centers with 1400+ MP as freshmen. Stewart's debut year last season was definitely not comparable to those of David Robinson, Shaq, or Mourning in terms of his role (all those played 2600+ minutes, Stewart started just 14 of 68 games for 1455 MP), but the production was magnificent on a per-minute basis.
Stewart was one of my favorite under-the-radar/WW plays and targets of the season. He finished 2021 with an average of 0.98 FP/min (that ranks in the 67th percentile among those 52 rookie-center player-seasons). It's true that Stewart had a kinda-low start to his career, but once he started to get things right and saw the game slow a bit for him, he turned into a force for the rebuilding Pistons.
Detroit has opted to add Kelly Olynyk to the fold, but Olynyk's already 30 years old and doesn't quite fit the franchise timeline for a future deep playoff run and championship contention. Stewart is most probably not going to start games this season, but if the season goes absolutely downhill and the Pistons go on a full-tank mission, Stweart will rack up developing playing time. And that's just the start because in one or two years he will be the clear no. 1 big man on the team and he's just entering his age-20 season.
Wendell Carter Jr., C - Orlando Magic
After spending two years in Chi-Town playing for the Bulls, Carter saw himself traded as part of the package offered by Chicago to get Nikola Vucevic. The Magic, turned out, were only just starting their rebuild as they moved on from all of their "franchise players" midway through the 2021 season. Orlando is banking, among others, on Carter and his steady improvement--now only hampered by injuries and missed games here and there (he's played 44, 43, and 54 games in the past three years).
Now, if you tell me that missing games is the only bad thing about Carter, I'd definitely believe you and I wouldn't even be that worried about that nor Carter's overall upside when it comes to dynasty leagues. Carter has been three years in the league already and he's never finished below a 10-7 per-game baseline, has a career-average line of 10-8 with 1.0 BPG and he's topped 8.0 RPG in the past two seasons.
While Carter is not a floor-stretching big, he's at least trying with 0.7 3PA per game hitting them at an 18.8% clip. His scoring prowess is cool, though, as his three years in the league went for 10+ PPG and he's the only center to have done that while aged 21 or younger and playing <1500 MP in all of those years. Missing games sucks, I know, but the potential is there and Orlando should be a good enough place for him to grow if only because of the lack of talent around, thus forcing him into a heavier-than-average role. Snatch some shares of Carter, let him go through the growing pains for a year or two, and reap the dynastic rewards later.
Naz Reid, C - Minnesota Timberwolves
The leap from Reid's freshman year to his second season as a pro was notable at the very very least. Reid, after playing just 30 games as a rookie in 2020, went on to play all but two games last year (70) while raising his PER from 7.4 to a beastly 18.2 last year. I say that because while it's not that those numbers are otherworldly, the truth is that among rookies/second-year centers with 70+ GP, <15 starts, and <1500 MP in any of those two seasons in the NBA, Reid's PER ranks fifth since 1990 among 34 qualifying centers. The four players above him: Thomas Bryant, Willy Hernangomez, Mason Plumlee, and Clint Capela. And right behind Reid: Jarrett Allen and Eddy Curry.
No matter how you look at Reid's second year in the L, the outcome is always a fantastic one. A simple way to doing so is just looking at his per-game averages. Reid is one of 30 centers with a player-season at age-21-or-younger putting up at least a 10-4-1-1 average line, and the only one among those 30 players turning the ball over just once (1.0 TO) per game--in advanced terms: 9.5% TOV rate, tied for the third-lowest only below the marks of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Deandre Ayton's qualified seasons.
We still have to see where Ben Simmons lands this preseason/regular-season/whenever-season. I mention this because the Wolves have made it to some headlines speaking of them as a potential landing spot. Reid, more than probably, would be part of any trade package Minny puts together, and not precisely because the Wolves want to get rid of the big man, but more because of the receiving team wanting shares of him. Do the same in your dynasty league. Reid has looked great already even on a rather putrid environment and should only keep growing going forward.
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