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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 36: Brunson vs. Till on 09/04/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
While not the worst event ever held by the UFC, the truth is that we didn't get to enjoy superb fireworks last weekend. Sure, the one-kick KO of Alhassn was thrilling, and four fighters got to at least 100 DKFP last Saturday, but that's the lowest number since Jul. 24 when just three fighters did so, and only the third time that had happened in the past three months of scheduled events. We can only improve on that this weekend, so that's a positive. And we need it as we won't have any more UFC bouts until two weeks from now, as the promo will enter a small mid-September hiatus spanning a couple of weeks.
This Saturday will be highlighted by two top-7 MW contenders: no. 5 Derek Brunson going against no. 7 Darren Till for an eventual chance at Israel Adesanya's belt down the road. Not bad for a headliner inside the Apex in Enterprise, NV. And most definitely not the only tasty fight on the main card; two more top-9 fighters (no. 4 Alex Perez and no. 9 Matt Schnell) will fight to climb the Flyweight ladder. Enjoy this one, because it'll be half a month before we get to watch some more UFC fighting on the telly.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 36: Brunson vs. Till on 09/04/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Derek Brunson, $7400 - vs. Darren Till
Back in Nov. 2018, Brunson became the second-to-last man to get beaten by Israel Adesanya before the Nigerian started his reign of terror with a belt around his waist. Call it a coincidence, but since that loss, Brunson was determined to getting back to the same scenario--a fight against Adesanay--only now for the title: four fights, four Ws in a row for him. Darren Till had a shot at the gold against Tyron Woodley back in Sep. 2018 but he was submitted landing no strikes nor takedowns. Till has faced stiff competition of late, going 1-3 against Woodley, Masvidal, Gastelum (W), and Robert Whittaker, his last fight taking place more than a year ago.
It's impossible to compare both Brunson and Till runs toward this weekend bout without considering the level of their opponents. Brunson is 4-0 against chumps. Till is 1-3 against kings. I have to think Till should rebound and get the W this Saturday, or at least get much closer to pull off the feat. Brunson, on the other hand, might find his toughest opponent other than Adesanya three years ago in Darren Till. Brunson has done it both on striking (average 129 SSAtt per fight) and grappling (16-of-39 in takedowns) in his last four while Till has done nothing because his foes have not allowed him to. Till should be better, but even then Brunson has looked too good lately for me to fade him.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Perez, $8700 - vs. Matt Schnell
The last time we watched Perez inside an Octagon he was fighting for the FW belt against Deiveson Figueiredo... and he ate an L in under two minutes of fighting time getting subbed by the Brazilian. Prior to that loss, Perez had won all of his fights, going 6-0 from Dec. 2017 to Jun. 2020. Schnell, while not at that masterful level, went 5-2 after getting KO'd in his debut. He's split his record 1-1 this year, losing his last bout to Rogerio Bontorin last May.
There is a concerning trait in Schnell's resume and that is his two losses via first-round KOs while not finishing any opponent that way himself for a W. Perez has scored himself an even 2 decisions, 2 KOs, and 2 submissions in his six-win streak, mixing and matching all of those results. For someone not adept at taking the fight to the mat, Schnell's two victories via submission in 2019 were fantastic. Perez is the more complete fighter, though, with higher SS landing rates, a similar SS-volume average on a per-minute basis, and an active takedown game (10-of-23). Only the reigning champ could stop Perez, and I'm making an educated guess in picking Perez to get back to the W column this weekend, building his second run toward another fight for the gold.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Modestas Bukauskas, $8500 - vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Bukauskas looked so good... until he didn't. And that span of time was as short as a five-minute one, which is the time it took him to drop his first opponent ever in the UFC with a KO. Two losses after that fight adorn Bukauskas' fight log for the past 12 months. Rountree Jr. hasn't been incredible either--he's 4-4-1 in the UFC--but if we know something about this man is that whenever he fights, someone gets done before the final whistle blows.
Rountree has won via KO three times, he's been KO'd two times, and he is 1-1-1 in fights that went to the judges' decision. Bukauskas has also got rocked, with his other loss coming in a decision last March. This bout will end soon, and that means someone is going to eat a putrid loss in terms of fantasy upside and points. The fight log of both of these guys tells us to clearly bet on Rountree, but the finer details give us pause: Rountree just came back from a two-year absence and has fought just once since Sep. 2019, losing both that one and his latest one in Jan. 2021. Call me crazy all you want, but I'm on Bukauskas' side this weekend--and as much as it might pains some of yall, that will most probably mean that Khalil is about to wave goodbye to the UFC.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paddy Pimblett, $8300 - vs. Luigi Vendramini
What's the deal with Luigi? He's fought three times under the UFC banner and he's 1-2, with wildly varying results. He debuted with a KO against in a fight in which he attempted five TDs landing none of them and only going 4-of-17 in SS in the 6:20 minutes he lasted. He then got a 1:12-KO win that saw him score 106+ DKFP. And finally, he put up a dud of 22 FP in 15 minutes, going 1-of-6 in TDs and landing 43% of his 95 SSA. Not something you'd love more often than not...
Pimblett is making his UFC debut while being a 16-3 pro so far in his career. The problem is that those three losses have come Paddy's way in the last six fights he's been part of, going 3-3 in that span from 2017 on. Pimblett has won two in a row, one via sub, one via KO, so he's definitely the hotter fighter entering the Octagon this weekend. That being said, Luigi looked great before getting into the UFC circuit and facing a debutant this weekend I'd bet on him getting back to the W column, and even finishing Paddy early while at it.
