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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC Vegas 109: Dolidze vs. Hernandez on 8/9/25. Alen's MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
For the second weekend in a row, the UFC puts on a show at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Before it started, last week's UFC event didn't look that good on paper, but it turned out to be an amazing UFC event. UFC Vegas 109 has a strong mix of veterans, rising contenders, and hungry debutants that fills out the card, promising a night of action from start to finish. Roman Dolidze and Anthony Hernandez are scheduled for a five-round main event, after the co-main event featuring former title challenger Steve Erceg and Ode' Osbourne facing off in the bantamweight division.
Middleweights Eryk Anders and Christian Leroy Duncan are scheduled to open up the UFC Vegas 109 main card, followed by a bantamweight bout between Miles Johns and Jean Matsumoto. In the featherweight division, we have UFC veteran Andre Fili taking on Christian Rodriguez. Also on the main card, Iasmin Lucindo will look to get back in the win column when she takes on UFC veteran Angela Hill, who is looking to win back-to-back fights.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 109: Dolidze vs. Hernandez on 8/9/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Anthony Hernandez, $8.7K - vs. Roman Dolidze
Top 10 middleweights Dolidze and Hernandez are scheduled for the main event of UFC Vegas 108 on Saturday. Both Dolidze and Hernandez are looking to extend their win streak a move closer to the title shot.
"Middleweight contenders beware" 👀
Anthony Hernandez is coming for another 25 minutes of pressure this weekend at #UFCVegas109 💥 pic.twitter.com/Oi59iJREHA
— UFC (@ufc) August 4, 2025
Since his loss to fan-favorite Kevin Holland back in 2020, the former LFA champion Hernandez has been on a tear, winning seven consecutive fights. Currently ranked as 10th in the middleweight division, Hernandez is known for his cardio, which he uses to drain his opponents through his suffocating grappling. In his last bout, Hernandez dominated Brendan Allen en route to a unanimous decision victory. Before that, he brutalised Michel Pereira for most of the fight before finishing him in the fifth round by TKO. Widely touted as the dark horse of the UFC’s middleweight division, Hernandez is likely a few wins away from a title shot.
After losing back-to-back fights to former title challenger Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov, Dolidze bounced back by defeating former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith via unanimous decision. He followed that by beating Kevin Holland by TKO as a result of a rib injury at the end of the first round. He extended his win streak to three after avenging his loss to Vettori and beating him via unanimous decision. Known as a wrestler with fight-ending knockout power, Dolidze has gone 9-3 in the UFC thus far.
Hernandez enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-2 and 8-2 in the UFC. He averages 4.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63%. Hernandez absorbs 2.61 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 6.27 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.9 submission attempts during the same period. Hernandez has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 66%.
Dolidze enters this fight as the underdog, with an MMA record of 15-3. He averages 3.58 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Dolidze absorbs 3.56 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 49%. Regarding his wrestling and jiu-jitsu, Dolidze is averaging 1.11 takedowns every 15 minutes and 0.9 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 33%.
Although Hernandez usually puts the pressure on his opponents from the opening bell, I see Dolidze getting the better of Hernandez in the first two rounds, but after that, I see Hernandez taking over and getting Dolidze to the ground, threatening with submissions while punishing Dolidze with ground-and-pound. Dolidze is extremely tough, and I don't think Hernandez will be able to finish him, but I think Hernandez will outgrapple and possibly dominate Dolidze on the ground en route to a unanimous decision victory.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Steve Erceg, $9.1K - vs. Ode' Osbourne
Former flyweight title challenger Erceg and Osbourne are scheduled for a three-round bantamweight bout in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday. Erceg needs a win badly, and he looks to get back in the win column, while Osbourne is looking to win back-to-back fights.
Don't sleep on Astro Boy 😤@ErcegSteve returns to action in the UFC Vegas 109 co-main event!
[ SAT 7pmET on ESPN & @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/lUjNWoxiYs
— UFC (@ufc) August 5, 2025
Erceg had a great performance against flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, nearly capturing gold, but since then, he has struggled against the best flyweights in the world. First, he suffered a first-round TKO loss to Kai Kara-France, and then, in his last bout, he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Brandon Moreno. This is a massive step down for Erceg, a man who gave Pantoja his toughest test to date. A slick striker with underrated grappling, the Australian makes his bantamweight debut, hoping that he will get back on track.
Like Erceg, Osbourne is in a similar position. He has struggled to find consistency inside the Octagon, going 5-6 in the UFC. After losing three fights in a row to Asu Almabayev, Jafel Filho, and Ronaldo Rodríguez, Osbourne got back in the win column in his last fight by defeating Luis Gurule via second-round TKO. Known for his willingness to face tough opponents and his explosiveness, Osbourne sees this as a major opportunity to take a step up in the rankings. This will arguably be the biggest test of Osbourne's career.
Erceg comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-4 and 3-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. Erceg is absorbing 4.03 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. Regarding his grappling, Erceg is averaging 0.84 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 26% and his takedown defense is 63%.
Osbourne enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-8. He is averaging 3.20 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Osbourne is absorbing 3.82 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 28% and a takedown defense of 65%.
The only way Osbourne can win this fight is if he catches Erceg and knocks him out. That being said, I think this is the fight where Erceg is going to remind us just how good he is. Except for size and reach, which favors Osbourne, Erceg is just better everywhere. It should also be noted that Osbourne has been submitted four times in his career, including recent losses to Ronaldo Rodriguez and Jafel Filho, and Erceg is a black belt in BJJ and is known for his grappling. My prediction is that Erceg is going to submit Osbourne in the second round.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Iasmin Lucindo, $8.3K - vs. Angela Hill
On Saturday, Lucindo and Hill are scheduled for a strawweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 108. Lucidno will look to return to the win column while Hill aims to win back-to-back fights.
Una estrella en ascenso Iasmin Lucindo 😎 #UFCVegas109 pic.twitter.com/dmsSvmDmqT
— UFC Español (@UFCEspanol) August 8, 2025
After losing her UFC debut to Yazmin Jauregui, Lucindo bounced back by winning her next four fights. She returned to the win column at UFC Vegas 71 by defeating Brogan Walker by unanimous decision. In her next three fights, she submitted Polyana Viana and defeated former title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz via unanimous decision and Marina Rodriguez via split decision. She was last seen in action in March at UFC 313, where she suffered a unanimous decision loss to Amanda Lemos. Despite a unanimous decision loss to Lemos in March 2025, Lucindo has demonstrated resilience, her striking, and her overall skills.
Hill is a UFC veteran who is set to step inside the Octagon for the 28th time. Hill is 17 years her opponent’s senior; Hill remains in the top 15. Known for her striking, Muay Thai to be exact, Hill was incredibly unlucky throughout her UFC career as she has come out on the wrong end of a split decision on quite a few occasions, not to mention several other unanimous decision defeats that should have gone in the favor of Hill. Hill was last seen in action in February at UFC Vegas 102, where she got back in the win column by defeating Ketlen Souza via split decision. Before that, she got outpointed by Tabatha Ricci.
Lucindo enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-6 and 4-2 in the UFC. She averages 2.94 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Lucindo absorbs 2.53 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 65%. Her grappling is solid, averaging 2.15 takedowns every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 60% and her takedown defense is 54%.
Hill comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-14 and 13-14 in the UFC. She is averaging 5.47 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Hill is absorbing 4.92 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 61%. Her grappling is decent, averaging 0.81 takedowns every 15 minutes. Hill has a takedown accuracy of 32% and her takedown defense is 75%.
Lucindo should be stronger and a faster fighter. Since it is not exactly wise to try to win a striking battle with Hill, Lucindo is most likely going to mix up her striking with her grappling. If this fight were five rounds, then I would have given the advantage to Hill, but since this is a three-round fight, my prediction is that Lucindo is going to defeat Hill via unanimous decision.
