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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 32: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw on 07/24/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Do you remember when Conor McGregor came back from his hiatus to face Poirier for the third time? Ah, those good old years... Or weeks, that is, because the UFC is back on the ultra-packed schedule and has cards on the calendar for the next seven weeks on top of the past two weekends doing it. That's right. We'll be actively watching fights until we have a two-week pause after Sep. 4th. Not bad for us mad MMA fans.
We are more than a month removed from the last title fight and we won't enjoy any of those until UFC 265 come Aug. 7th, but we're getting there. This weekend won't be one for gold belts, but will definitely be a spicy affair with the comeback of TJ Dillashaw after his positive for EPO two years ago, while vets such as Darren Elkins (fighting for the 24th time in his UFC career) will feature on the main card. Get ready, because this doesn't stop and there are always fireworks waiting just around Saturday's corner.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 32: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw on 07/24/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Cory Sandhagen, $8800 - vs. TJ Dillashaw
A couple of recent losses in both of these two's resumes are the lone blemishes in otherwise impeccable runs. Sure thing, Dillashaw has competed only once in two years and a half when she lost a championship fight in January 2019, while Sandhagen's one loss in the last three and a half years came around a year ago... and in one of his two fights last year--he's been off the Octagon since October 2020.
They say availability is the best ability. Well, then this is Sandhagen's fight to lose. Dillashaw's last two fights before this weekend coincided with Cory's first three--both were part of the last card to grace Dillashaw. Since then, Dillashaw has logged zero bouts compared to Sandhagen's four while getting to a 3-1 in that span. These two have built careers out of early finishes, with Sandhagen going to the judges' decision in just two of his seven fights (both wins; three KOs; one submission win, and one loss) and Dillashaw KO'ing (twice) or getting KO'd (last time out) all last three fights she was part of.
Dillashaw is fighting for the first time in ages due to his positive for EPO and resulting two-year suspension. Sandhagen has built a very strong contention bid in that time, sitting at the no. 2 spot in the Bantamweight ranks only behind Petr Yan. Dillashaw should come back firing, but I gotta go with the freshest fighter here and the one on a steady ascension. I don't expect any of those two to put up massive takedown numbers, and Sandhagen has quite a high landing SS rate that should help him in defeating Dillashaw when the final bell rings--if TJ can make it that long, that is.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Aspen Ladd, $8900 - vs. Macy Chiasson
Ladd and Chiasson have very similar fight logs since they entered the UFC circuit. Ladd did so back in 2017 but has fought just five times since then, three of those bouts taking place in 2019 and none since. Chiasson's fights all happened between March 2019 and this past March, spanning two years. Both fighters are 4-1 in their careers, although Ladd's loss came via KO while Chiasson ate her lone L thanks to the judges' decision against Lina Lansberg.
There is a very high chance this fight doesn't reach its final point, getting called earlier than that. That's because Ladd's KO'd three foes while getting KO'd once herself, while Chiasson KO'd her first two opponents and only won via decision two other times--back in 2020 and four months ago. These two are pinpoint accurate when it comes to Significant Strikes, and although their volume is not staggering, they both put on bulky-enough numbers on a per-minute basis, attempting at least 8.5 SS each.
Takedowns can be interesting when declaring a winning if this goes the distance (no fighter has been subbed yet), but once more, both of these two are rather nice at grappling. Ladd is at least a nail better at it than Chiasson, who only went bonkers for takedowns in her last two fights (4-of-9 successful TDs). Ladd is 6-of-8 in her career, but she's alternated fights of attempting TDs with others in which she totally forgot about that side of the game. Slim margins here, but I'm banking on Ladd getting the W.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kyler Phillips, $9200 - vs. Raulian Paiva
One of the most contrasting fights in the card in terms of style. First things first, though. Kyler Phillips, he of the perfect record, is 3-0 since his first bout took place in Feb. 2020. He's got a couple of decision wins to go with an early second-round KO of Cameron Else last October. Raulian Paiva, on the other hand, is an even 2-2 having lost his first two fights to then bounce back and score himself a couple via both decision and second-round KO.
Phillips' takedown numbers are insane, with the Bantam having pulled of a TD in 7 of his 11 attempts while trying to do it at least 2 times in each of his three fights so far, landing at least 2 of them every time out. He's 2/4, 2/2, and 3/5 in his career for a rather high 70% TK% while very actively attempting them nightly. Paiva, though, attempted just 4 in his four bouts landing none of them--and he did it all in his debut fight and never again.
The volume is there for both fighters, but that only bolsters Phillips' chances here as the pairing of striking and grappling clearly gives him the edge over Paiva. The latter has kind of found his place of late, but Phillips' three-fight winning run looks too good for me to bet against him.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Darren Elkins, $7600- vs. Darrick Minner
Vet vs. Fresh. Yessir! Minner will step into the Octagon this Saturday carrying a negative 1-2 record having lost via submission twice--both times inside the first 7 minutes of those fights. Not only that, but his three total fights are just 13% of Elkins' full UFC fight log. LOL. Elkins, who first fought in the UFC back in March of 2010, is doing it for the 24th time in his career this weekend.
Elkins was fantastic for the first three-fourths of his tenure here (14-4 in his first 18 bouts) but he's since lost four in a row only to find himself in the W column his last time out last November. It is important to note how Elkins' last two Ws (while widely separated as they happened almost three years apart) came via submission of his opponents. That's because of Minner's poor track record avoiding getting subbed.
Minner's numbers, in fact, are rather putrid. His last fight (a 15-minute full-time bout) finished with him getting his first win on a middling 60-attempted-SS, 4-of-5 TD performance. No volume to go with mighty takedown-prowess, but I'm just not trusting those takedowns after he could do nothing in his first two fights (1-for-1 in those two, subbed twice while at it...). Elkins, as old as he is, brings the full package and can do it on all sides of the game--just peep at his last fight to get a glimpse of this man's determination: 7-of-21 on takedowns, 71% SS landing rate. Give me the über-vet on this one.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Maycee Barber, $7800 - vs. Miranda Maverick
Was it a matter of low-level opponents to kick her career off, or was there something else in those last couple of losses that came Barber's way? Truth is, Barber started her UFC tenure with Fury Mode activated knocking out her first three opponents in 8 minutes each at most, but later proceeded to eat two Ls in her next two fights, one in 2020 and the other one this very past February. Ugh.
Miranda Maverick, while on a smaller sample of fights (just two) is a perfect 2-0 fighter entering the Octagon Saturday. Whether that holds true by the end of the night, though, we'll yet to know. Maverick has looked great so far, can't lie about that. She TKO'd Liana Jojua in her debut in five minutes, and the second time she was out there she went to the judges' decision but put up a sound 71-of-150 SS performance to go with an almost perfect 3-of-4 successful takedowns.
Barber, who had not attempted a TD in her first four fights, went for five in her last fight landing three of them to no avail. Maverick will be seen as the favorite because of the recent runs of these two, but I think Barber will have an interesting chance of bouncing back and scoring herself another KO this weekend. I wouldn't go as far as to say that Barber is fighting for her UFC life here as she's still a positive 3-2 before Saturday, but she better level up and get that W after the two consecutive losses, which should have her active and fighting like hell against the now-sophomore.
