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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Fight Night 176: Overeem vs. Sakai on 9/5/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
At the pace the UFC is churning out events these days and has been doing during the past few months, I'm starting to worry we might run out of fighters and matches! It's been quite a packed schedule, and here we are now, already looking at UFC Vegas 9! This will mark the last single-digits even inside the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, and it will bring us some fights long overdue thanks to COVID positives and other issues that popped through the last weeks, delaying those bouts.
Headlining the event will be eternal-contender Alistair Overeem facing the young and currently no. 9 heavyweight Augusto Sakai, who is in an absolutely tearing 6-0 run (UFC and other promotions combined). We will also watch a couple of women's flyweight fights happen inside the Octagon, along with a welterweight fight and--potentially--the previously-previously-scratched bout between light heavyweights Ovince Saint Preux and Alonzo Menifield.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Fight Night 176: Overeem vs. Sakai on 9/5/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Augusto Sakai, $7400 - vs. Alistair Overeem
Underdog time on the main event! Yessir! I don't think I need to introduce you to Alistair. Overeem has been around since 2011, was a monster in the mid '10s, got his chance at the belt against Miocic in 2016 (lost) and he's 2-3 in his last five bouts, although that negative record came thanks to facing top-tier competition.
Sakai has fought four times under the UFC banner and oh boy could the results have been better? I doubt it. Four fights, four wins, two early stoppages via KO (one under a minute!). Sakai's opponents have not been otherworldly, for sure, but he's just plain dominated.
Neither Overeem nor Sakai will use the ground, both will stay standing, exchange blows, and hopefully land a KO. Sakai hasn't been dropped yet, while Overeem has been KO'd in his last three defeats, which doesn't bode well for the veteran. Give me the cheap play here and let's hope for a knockout to keep that winning record as clean as it can get.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ovince Saint Preux, $7900 - vs. Alonzo Menifield
The last time we watched OSP inside an octagon--against Ben Rothwell last May--he stepped into it at heavyweight. It didn't go that well for him, as he dropped that one on a decision and he's now back to his natural weight class at LHW. That's where OSP has fought since 2013 with a 5-4 record since the start of 2017.
Menifield only has three fights in the UFC and although he started with a perfect 2-0 record that included two KOs at under four minutes each, he went on to drop his last bout facing Devin Clark last June. Menifield is a power-packed guy, that's for sure. It only took him 8 and 33 SS landed to put his two first opponents to sleep. OSP hasn't been KO'd since November 2017, but I'm not sure he wants to exchange a lot with such a cannoneer.
It is not hard to see what could most-probably happen on this one: 9 out of 13 (69%) fights those two have been part of since 2017 have seen the winner take home some sweet bonus points thanks to early stoppages. There is no way we don't watch a finish here, even with the current UFC trend of putting on boring and slogging shows. I'm betting on some mid-round KO/Submission in which OSP finish the younger Menifield and puts the latter's early UFC career in a little bit of trouble dropping him to 2-2 after Saturday's bout.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sijara Eubanks, $7700 - vs. Karol Rosa
This fight looks so tight and hard to predict in terms of outcome. Let's do a quick summary here just so you know what we're facing. Eubanks has fought five times in the UFC and is 3-2 in those bouts. Rosa only has two fights, both wins (2-0). All of their combined 7 fights have gone the distance, so it's reasonable to expect that to happen once more.
Now, for some numbers, the stats are also pretty close with similar averages in strike landing rate but Eubanks getting the edge on the ground game, as she has attempted more takedowns and landed them with relative ease. Rose has been able to rack up more fantasy points in her two wins than Eubans in hers only on pure striking volume, but I always tend to go with grappling and takedowns.
This could be a very good match to go with both fighters in a stack as they could combine for a ton of fantasy points. If I had to pick a winner, though, I'd go with the underdog in Eubanks here only for the takedown prowess.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Michel Pereira, $8200 - vs. Zelim Imadaev
If there were Game 7s in MMA, this would definitely be one for both Pereira and Imadaev. Mike enters this fight with a 1-2 record in the UFC with both of his losses in the past year and the win back in May 2019. Zelim is a null 0-2 in the UFC and the last time he fought (Nov. 2019) he was KO'd by Danny Roberts.
Other than the time he got his only win, Pereira has never topped 49 DKFP, which is ridiculously low even in losing efforts. Imadaev himself has topped at an even worse 32 fantasy points... This is not very exciting, but both men are fighting for their lives and a chance to keep in the promotion by elevating their profiles a bit with a W, so at least we know they'll be motivated to try and snatch that win as hell.
As in the blurb above, this fight could also turn into a very close one decided by a small detail. That detail, though, I see coming from Pereira. Mike clearly has the edge on grappling, tries some takedowns here and there, and importantly lands them. I guess the lack of high fantasy point tallies will be there no matter what, but hey, gotta find value wherever you can, right?
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jalin Turner, $7200 - vs. Thiago Moises
This is a fun one because it looks all the way that the infamous Spiderman pointing-meme. Check this out, and believe me although it doesn't seem true: Turner has four fights in the UFC; Moises has four fights in the UFC. Turner is 2-2; Moises is 2-2. Turner's fights have gone L-W-L-W; Moises' fights have gone L-W-L-W. It's about time something changes!
There is a glaring difference between these two fighters, though. Moises has gone to decision three of four times while getting his lone win via submission. Turner, on the other hand, has fought 15 minutes only once with his other three fights (2 wins, 1 loss) ending in KO. Turner has put to bed two of his UFC foes in under two rounds, which I think gives him a higher ceiling thanks to the potential bonus-point bounty.
Moises chances go through the ground game, as he often attempts to land takedowns but is not very very great at it with just a 17% TD rate. Whoever loses this bout won't do much for his fantasy owners, and given Turner's ceiling and chances of a KO are higher I'd go with him.
