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Welcome, RotoBallers. It's time to shake off the hangover and start 2022 off the right way by profiting in NBA DFS tonight. We have just a handful of games on both sites, with the Nuggets-Rockets and Spurs-Pistons leading the group with implied totals over 223 points. The Warriors-Jazz late-night hammer game is intriguing too - it features two of the best offenses and two of the best defenses in the entire league. As is the case with the NBA every night nowadays, there are countless issues with COVID that will be impacting this slate and that's going to open up an infinite amount of value plays tonight. Let's get to it.
Instead of meticulously trying to comb through the rest of the myriad of injury and "health and safety protocols" issues in play, just be sure to check out our NBA Injury Roundup as well as NBA Player News for updated information.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 1/1/22. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate and Positional K-Rate model.
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Guards - DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Facundo Campazzo - PG/SG, DEN vs. HOU ($4,200 DK, $5,500 FD)
I mean, this one is basically a free square tonight, especially over on DraftKings where they forgot to price the young man up. Campazzo is the lone PG standing for the Nuggets as Murray, Morris, and Howard remain out while Bones Hyland just entered the league's health and safety protocols. His only threats to take over any PG minutes come from Austin Rivers and Vlatko Cancar, who are both questionable tonight. Even with Hyland in the lineup last Tuesday, Campazzo played 32 minutes and put up a solid-if-unspectacular 26 DK points against the elite Warriors defense. He should see that same kind of run again tonight, and this time he gets to face a much, much more forgiving defense in the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are allowing the most FPPG to opposing PG's and the Nuggets rank as the top team to target on the entire slate according to my model. This means you'll want to get some Joker action in your lineups tonight, but it also means a few of these ancillary pieces could definitely pop for a big game. At the very least, he should have no trouble exceeding 5x value on both sites.
Hamidou Diallo - SG/SF, DET vs. SAS ($7,700 DK, $6,100 FD)
There may be a little sticker-shock on Diallo's DraftKings price, but he has been worth every penny as of late. He's playing all of the minutes he can handle as the Pistons are extremely shorthanded lately, missing Cunningham, Grant, Olynyk, Joseph, Frank Jackson, Lyles, Stewart, Lee, Josh Jackson, and Hayes. Over his last three games, Diallo holds a 25.7% usage rate and 1.19 FPTS/min and that has translated to 63.75, 39.75, and 31.5 DK points in that stretch. This is projecting as a fast-paced, high-scoring game, and as ugly as it may seem on the surface, you'll want to get exposure to the studs on this team (Diallo, Bey) as well as the values (Walton Jr., Stanley, Garza).
James Harden - PG/SG, BKN vs. LAC ($11,500 DK, $11,300 FD)
Harden is my favorite non-Jokic pay-up option on this slate. His price is still very reasonable considering he has gone for over 70 DK points in each of his last three contests. I'll repeat that - OVER 70 DK POINTS in each of his last three games. His latest 70-burger came with Kevin Durant back and playing 38 minutes, so it's not like having KD in the lineup is going to tank The Beard's output and/or ceiling. The Clippers are allowing the 10th-most FPTS/game to SG's on the season and the fifth-most FPTS/game over the last seven games, and they don't have Paul George or Batum to help out defensively. The Nets are projecting to score a slate-high 115.25 points tonight and I'm absolutely getting to Harden at this price.
Others to consider: Derrick Walton Jr. ($4,500 DK, $4,500 FD), Derrick White ($7,000 DK, $7,900 FD), Cassius Stanley ($3,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Devin Vassell ($3,900 DK, $4,400 FD), Jalen Green ($4,800 DK)
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Forwards DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Will Barton - SG/SF, DEN vs. HOU ($6,200 DK, $5,800 FD)
Barton is among the group that's left for Denver and he has been taking full advantage lately, playing at least 34 minutes and producing at least 30 DK points in three consecutive games heading into tonight's matchup against Houston. He's not very likely to spike for much of a ceiling as that's just not in his style of play, but he's right at 1.00 FPTS/min for the season and he'll see around 35 minutes in the top game environment on the slate. The Rockets are middle-of-the-pack at defending the SF position, but they allow the most FPPG overall and the Nuggets are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at 115.25 points. As long as the Rockets can keep this game within single digits, Barton's going to have no trouble reaching 5x value tonight.
Kyle Kuzma - SF/PF, WAS vs. CHI ($6,500 FD)
I don't have a ton of interest in Kuzma at $7,900 over on DraftKings, but his FanDuel price is mighty appealing. He's averaging 35.85 FD points over his last four games as he has really stepped up his scoring with Dinwiddie, Harrell, and others on the sidelines. The former Laker put up a 25/10/2/1 (42 FD points) line last game against the Cavaliers, a team that's among the best when it comes to defending the SF position. The Bulls, meanwhile, have allowed the sixth-most FPPG to opposing SF's this season and are the second-best matchup for an opposing SF on this slate. The field may be starting to get away from Kuzma, but you can keep rolling with him tonight over on FanDuel.
Others to consider: Saddiq Bey ($6,700 FD), Lonnie Walker IV ($4,000 DK, $4,800 FD), Davon Reed ($3,100 DK), Royce O'Neale ($3,500 DK)
Centers - DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic - C, DEN vs. HOU ($12,600 DK, $11,700 FD)
Over his last three games, Jokic is averaging 66.67 DK points with an otherworldly 41.1% usage rate and 1.90 FPTS/min. No one in the entire league does things like this, to be perfectly clear. This game should stay close enough for Jokic to get his full run, too, as the Nuggets are without a lot of their rotation players while Gordon, Rivers, and Cancar remain questionable. The Rockets have allowed the third-most FPTS/game to opposing centers this season as they simply don't have true big men who have any semblance of ability to defend the ultra-versatile reigning MVP. We haven't seen a triple-double out of Jokic since 12/15 against the Wolves, but I could easily see another one out of him tonight in this glorious matchup.
Daniel Gafford - C, WAS vs. CHI ($5,600 DK, $5,900 FD)
REVENGE GAME ALERT. As expected, Gafford has thrived in the starting role as he exceeded 35 DK points in each of his last two games (playing at least 32 minutes in each). He's a low usage rate player, but he holds a solid 1.04 FPTS/min rate on the season and that's going to get the job done when he's playing at least 30 minutes per game. The Bulls defend the position well overall but have slipped hard on that front lately, allowing the fifth-most FPPG to opposing centers over their last seven games. I'm not generally an advocate for deploying the "revenge game narrative" card, but Gafford could definitely be playing with a little extra motivation tonight. He was drafted in the second round by the Bulls in 2019, but, despite being a floundering franchise the last few years, they never really gave him a fair shot as he saw just 18 starts and about 13 minutes per game with Chicago. Look for Gafford to continue to be his reliable, productive self and put up a solid 5-6x value game against his former squad.
Others to consider: Luka Garza ($4,300 DK, $5,000 FD), Cheick Diallo ($3,200 DK, $3,700 FD), Serge Ibaka ($3,300 DK, $4,000 FD)
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