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We have a couple of Game 4s on tap in the NBA conference semifinals tonight, starting off with the Suns-Mavericks at 3:30 ET and finishing up with the Heat-Sixers at 8:00 ET. The Suns-Mavericks game is slightly more appealing from a daily fantasy standpoint as it holds the higher implied total, has the faster-projected pace, and features two defenses that combined to allow more fantasy points per game than the tough defenses in the Heat-Sixers matchup. The Suns and the Heat are leading their series, so it'll be the Mavericks and the Sixers who will be giving it their absolute best to avoid falling into the dreaded 1-3 hole.
Joel Embiid made his return in Game 3 and didn't appear to suffer any setbacks, so he should be back out there in a crucial Game 4. There is also a myriad of injuries to monitor on the Heat side, as Herro, Lowry, Strus, Tucker, Vincent, Martin, and Dedmon all carry "Q" tags heading into Sunday.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/8/22, with the slate locking at 3:30 pm ET. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate model. Let's get to it - good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Luka Doncic, PG/SG, DAL vs. PHX ($11,000 DK, $11,500 FD)
It's Luka Doncic on a two-game slate. Don't get too cute here. He hasn't put up less than 50 DK points over his last 15 games, exceeding 67 DK points five times during that span. So far against the Suns, he hasn't fallen below 52.75 DK points and exploded for 75 DK points in Game 1. They're going to throw everything they have at him, but that's not an excuse for us not to get to the superstar in daily fantasy contests. He has the highest projection and highest projected ceiling on the slate - play the man.
Reggie Bullock - SG/SF, DAL vs. PHX ($5,200 DK, $5,200 FD)
Bullock has been a key rotational piece for the Mavericks this season and especially in these playoffs. He's averaging an insane 40.5 minutes per game over nine games played so far, and the results have been generally solid for a mid-to-low salary player. He's scoring between 25-30 DK points in most games, and he has improved in each game of the Suns series with 17, 25, and 31 DK points in Games 1, 2, and 3, respectively. His job is to shoot open deep shots while Doncic draws all of the defensive attention - that's a nice role to have for around 40 minutes per night.
Devin Booker - PG/SG, PHX vs. DAL ($8,400 DK, $9,000 FD)
Booker needs just 42 DK points to hit 5x value tonight at his salary - he has exceeded that number in two of three games in this series and he averaged 43.2 DK points per game during the regular season. He's (obviously) one of the main catalysts on this team, so I fully expect him to bounce back with a big performance tonight after a weak 29 DK point showing in the Suns' Game 3 defeat. We know he's going to play minutes in the high-30s or even into the 40s so he'll have every opportunity to go off for a monster outing in Game 4.
Others to consider (FanDuel): Spencer Dinwiddie ($4,600), Jalen Brunson ($6,700), Max Strus ($4,400), Tyrese Maxey ($7,300)
Others to consider (DraftKings): Chris Paul ($8,100), Tyrese Maxey ($6,700), Jalen Brunson ($6,600), Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,100)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
James Harden - SG/SF, PHI vs. MIA ($8,500 DK, $8,500 FD)
It has certainly not been pretty for Harden in the playoffs to this point. He has only reached 5x value three times out of nine games, and he has been held below 38 DK points in each game so far in the Heat series. However, his salary has now dropped to the point where we can feel a lot more comfortable getting to him as he's now priced closer to his typical floor than anything else. He holds a 23.9% usage rate during the playoffs, which will work just fine, especially with the Heat defense now having to deal with stopping a healthier Embiid. The key for Harden is going to be his three-point shot - he's shooting just 4-for-19 from deep in this series and that will have to improve if we want him reaching and exceeding 5x value tonight.
Maxi Kleber - PF/C, DAL vs. PHX ($4,900 DK, $4,500 FD)
This pick excites exactly no one, I know. These are the things we have to do on two-game slates, though. Kleber has seen his playing time rise in each game of this series, amassing 25, 28, and 33 minutes so far against the Suns. His production has varied, but he crushed value with 24.75 DK points in Game 1 and 30.75 DK points in Game 3, doing most of his damage in the points and "stocks" categories. They'll very likely continue to need his size against Deandre Ayton in this series, especially with Dwight Powell playing terribly and seeing limited minutes to this point.
Joel Embiid - PF/C, PHI vs. MIA ($9,800 DK, $10,000 FD)
Embiid made his return from a concussion and an orbital fracture in Game 3, playing 36 minutes but massively disappointing with just 36.75 DK points in the victory. His price fell on both sites as a result, and we have to love the raw points upside we're getting at a reduced salary on the big man tonight. He's a few more days removed from the injury, and the sheer importance of this game for the Sixers leads me to believe that Embiid is going to be playing with an extra chip on his shoulder en route to a dominant performance tonight. He's averaging 1.46 FPTS/min this season and I fully expect him to revert back to that form, or even better, in Game 4.
Others to consider (FanDuel): Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,500), Mikal Bridges ($6,300), Tyler Herro ($6,000), Jae Crowder ($5,800)
Others to consider (DraftKings): Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,500), Mikal Bridges ($6,000), Jimmy Butler ($8,900), P.J. Tucker ($4,100), Tobias Harris ($7,000)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Deandre Ayton - C, PHX vs. DAL ($7,300 DK, $7,400 FD)
Ayton has a bit of an odd game as he contributes points and rebounds, but very little of anything else. That's OK, though, because the Mavericks don't use a real center and Ayton has all the opportunity in the world to post big double-doubles in this series. He has outputs of 37 and 31.25 DK points to go along with an absolute stinker of a game in Game 2, so there is some volatility with Ayton. He's also capable of going absolutely ballistic on his salary, too, as he did with a 60.25 DK point showing against the Pelicans in the first round. Again - the Mavericks don't use a center. Ayton should eat here at a nice mid-range salary.
Others to consider (FanDuel): Bam Adebayo ($8,500)
Others to consider (DraftKings): Bam Adebayo ($7,500)
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