RADIO
We have a modest six-game slate in the NBA tonight, and it's certainly not lacking for star power. Embiid, Doncic, Harden, Curry, Morant, Tatum, Sabonis, and Irving are the highlights at the top of the salary scale, so we're going to have our pick of the litter among the studs.
Three of the six matchups (Wizards-Grizzlies, Nets-Warriors, and Kings-76ers) currently hold implied totals of at least 221.5 points, and unsurprisingly, those are the matchups that profile as the top games to target for DFS lineups tonight. The home teams (Grizzlies, Warriors, and 76ers) in those games rate out as the top three teams to target. Keep an eye out for news on Van Vleet, Fox, Ingram, Valanciunas, and Lowry as the day moves along.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 1/29/22. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate and Positional K-Rate model. Let's get to it, good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Luka Doncic - PG, DAL vs. IND ($11,400 DK, $11,100 FD)
On a slate with Harden, Curry, Morant, Irving, Brown, and Beal, I'm going with the most expensive option of them all in Luka. He has posted at least 67.25 DK points in three of his last six games as he seems to be starting to round back into the incredible form he was in for most of last season. He holds a monster 37.8% usage rate and puts up 1.55 FPTS/min over 476.5 minutes with Tim Hardaway Jr. off the floor this season, as he will be tonight. The matchup as a whole doesn't rate out too well as the game holds a modest 216.5-point implied total and slow projected pace, but the individual matchup for Doncic is glorious. The Pacers are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the point guard position over their last seven games, ranking only behind the lowly Thunder. They've allowed the last three stud point guards they've faced (Curry, Ball, and Paul) to go absolutely bonkers on them - Doncic is going to be the next beneficiary.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker - PG/SG, NOP vs. BOS ($4,600 DK, $5,500 FD)
Note: this is dependent on Devonte' Graham sitting out - he left Friday's game with a knee injury. He's a core play if Graham, Ingram, and JoVal are all inactive.
It's time for some NAW in our lives, once again. Alexander-Walker has seen at least 34 minutes in each of his last three games, putting up at least 29.25 DK points in all three and spiking for 47.5 DK points against the Sixers as a starter. He could be getting another start here, though he's still very much in play at his salary even if he's not in the starting lineup (as long as Graham is out). Having Ingram (Q) and JoVal (Q) inactive would give NAW a gigantic boost as his usage rate jumps to a team-high 33.4% with all three off the floor. It's a rough matchup with a low total and slow pace, but NAW still projects to be a solid value on this slate.
Desmond Bane - SG/SF, MEM vs. WAS ($6,200 DK, $6,700 FD)
Bane looks like a great tournament play tonight, especially at his price over on DraftKings. I'm assuming that Brunson leads the way in rostership among the mid-range guards, but Bane is just $100 more and is much less likely to drop a lineup-killing output. Bane hasn't scored below 20 DK points since 12/19 - Brunson has two such games over his last five. He's averaging a solid 24.3% usage rate and a 1.02 FPTS/min rate with Dillon Brooks off the floor, and the game environment is the best on the entire slate.
Others to consider: Jalen Brunson ($6,100 DK, $5,600 FD), Tyrese Maxey ($6,600 DK, $6,000 FD), Devonte Graham ($5,200 DK), Ja Morant ($10,300 DK, $10,600 FD)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Andrew Wiggins - SF, GSW vs. BKN ($6,000 DK, $6,000 FD)
The forward positions aren't really all that intriguing to me on tonight's slate - let's just lean into it and get weird with Wiggy. As long as he plays the 35-38 minutes that he has been seeing in non-blowout contests, he's going to have a great shot at hitting value tonight. He had been in a bit of a slump recently, but he broke out of it in a revenge game against the Wolves as he put up 39.75 DK points in 36 minutes of action. He'll be benefitting from playing in arguably the top game environment on the slate as the matchup holds the highest implied total (230.5 points) and fastest projected pace, and the Nets are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams over their last seven games. Wiggins isn't likely to be popular, either, which makes him a top tournament play in the mid-range.
P.J. Tucker - PF, MIA vs. TOR ($3,700 DK)
We know what we're getting out of Tucker at this point - some rebounds and defensive stats coupled with a smattering of corner threes. It's about as ugly as it gets, but he typically plays close to 30 minutes and is going to be a great bet to hit value at this low of a salary. He averages 21 DK points per game and has put up between 22.25 and 31.25 DK points in each of his last three games, so the form is clearly there. The game environment is brutal as the matchup holds the lowest implied total, slowest projected pace, and two of the best defenses on the slate. That being said, the Raptors do allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, and Tucker is simply too cheap to ignore at a shallow position.
Others to consider: Maxi Kleber ($3,800 DK, $4,00 FD), Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400 DK, $8,200 FD), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,400 DK, $4,300 FD), Deni Avdija ($3,600 DK)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Joel Embiid - C, PHI vs. SAC ($11,700 DK, $11,400 FD)
You absolutely cannot find a center that is going to come anywhere close to matching Embiid's potential ceiling tonight. In fact, it's fair to say that Doncic, Harden, and Morant are the only players on the slate who we can project to have any chance at outscoring Philly's big man. Embiid "stumbled" to 51.75 DK points in his last time out, but he was on fire in the four games prior as he put up a 71 DK point average and topped out at 77 DK points against the Magic on 1/19. The Sixers rank just decimal points away from being the top team to target on tonight's slate as the Kings like to play fast, rank second-to-last in defensive rating, and allow the most fantasy points per game on the slate. They also give up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers. The game has a 10.5-point spread, so the only factor that could limit Embiid is having his minutes reduced in a potential blowout. Otherwise, the sky is the limit here.
Others to consider: Steven Adams ($4,700 DK), Richaun Holmes ($4,800 DK), Bam Adebayo ($7,300 DK, $8,000 FD)
*Play Willy Hernangomez if JoVal is inactive.
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