RADIO
As if the current week of NFL Free Agency hasn't been crazy enough for us all, shockwaves were sent across the NFL landscape on Thursday evening as fans, media, players, and pundits all alike reacted with wide eyes to the sudden news that Davante Adams had been traded from the Green Bay Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders. I am starting to get carpal tunnel from how much I have been on my phone this week and I can only imagine how Schefty feels.
With the Packers in a tough salary cap situation, it was made aware to Aaron Rodgers before he decided to return to Green Bay that Adams would inevitably be traded if a new deal couldn't get done. After Jaguars GM Trent Baalke completely shattered the wide receiver ceiling by making Christian Kirk the third-highest paid receiver in the league, the writing was on the wall for Davante Adams to completely reset the WR market altogether.
Now that he'll be catching passes from former college teammate Derek Carr instead of Aaron Rodgers, what does that mean for his fantasy football value?
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Las Vegas Doubling Down
After the Broncos added Russell Wilson and the Chargers acquired Khalil Mack, one couldn't help but think the Raiders would blow it all up and start from scratch given the state of the rest of the teams in the AFC West. I give them a lot of credit for not flinching and adding Chandler Jones in free agency to pair across from Maxx Crosby and they deserve props by trading for Adams even though it required them parting with their first and second-round picks in the 2022 draft (22nd & 53rd overall).
Derek Carr is 30, Darren Waller is 29, and Josh Jacobs, albeit 24, has three seasons of NFL mileage on him. With Carr only signed through 2022, the Raiders were at a crossroads with their future and in order to keep Carr in the fold, they had to show they were committed to winning. While the price for Adams was a steep one, in my opinion, front offices and NFL fans everywhere overvalue draft picks over acquiring proven talent. I think it's just a part of human nature to be more enamored with the mystery behind door number two even though what came through door number one was already a solid option. The Rams have already shown this to be a viable strategy.
The move for the Packers was a puzzling one given they are in a clear "win now" window with Aaron Rodgers being 38 years of age and most of their team being in its prime years. Given how deep the incoming 2022 draft class is at wide receiver, most teams are better off drafting a WR in Rounds 1-2 for a fraction of the cost than paying big money to extend wide receivers or acquire them in free agency (looking at you, Chargers). However, given that the Packers are built to win now, this move does hurt Rodgers' fantasy value some, but I think they can easily regroup if they draft a receiver or two in the first two rounds or sign someone in free agency. Current Packers GM Brian Gutekunst is usually a tough one to predict on draft day, so anything could happen on that front.
Davante Adams, still a WR1?
Davante Adams has been a league winner for fantasy purposes for the last five seasons, but now that he is moving over to the Raiders, things have changed a little bit. Adams is 29 and will be 30 before the year is out. There is no denying his greatness and here is how he has finished the last five seasons in full PPR leagues:
2021: WR2
2020: WR1
2019: WR23 (missed 4 games and averaged 17.7 ppg, which was good for WR6 on points per game basis)
2018: WR2
2017: WR14
Adams possesses some of the purest route-running ability of any player in the NFL. As you can see below, it seems unfair for anyone who has to try and cover him 1-on-1. It looks like Adams just glides down the field and his footwork is so smooth that I can imagine MC Hammer looking on with envy.
The good news is for Adams is that he already has a relationship and chemistry with Derek Carr as the two played together at Fresno State from 2011-13. While I am not expecting a total dropoff from Adams in his new home, I think we all know that Carr is not Aaron Rodgers. There are also more mouths to feed in the Raiders' current offense with Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs even becoming more involved in the passing game last season.
In Green Bay, Adams had the lion's share of the targets to himself being that the Packers didn't have a solid number two receiver or tight end in the last few years and Rodgers always seemed to look for him in the red zone. Now that he is headed elsewhere, there is no guarantee that their offense will be as prolific as Green Bay's through the air, but the Raiders will still produce for fantasy purposes.
The largest benefactor from the trade was Derek Carr, who should now see a boosted efficiency in the red zone.
While Davante was the clear WR1 in the past few years, he has slid down to about WR4-WR7 territory for me after this trade. If you decide you are more comfortable drafting Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, or possibly Ja'Marr Chase over him in a redraft league, I have no issues with that whatsoever.
Adams has scored 47 touchdowns in the last four seasons combined along with 432 receptions and 5,310 yards through the air. If you average those out, he has averaged 108 receptions for 1,327 yards and nearly 12 touchdowns, which is pretty elite company.
What to do with Adams in Dynasty
Adams is young enough that you can still get a haul for him in dynasty. He may be elite for a few more seasons, but if you're in a rebuild, it's time to do it now. Before you make any trades in a dynasty offseason, it's important to assess your roster. Are you in a contention window, or do you have an aging, underperforming roster that needs to be retooled? That's the biggest mistake people make in dynasty. If you can learn that early on, you'll be well on your way.
If you think you have a top three roster in your league and can win it all next year, then don't trade him. If you could get a pick in the 1.01 - 1.05 range along with a player like Elijah Moore for Adams, I think I would do it. If you are looking for future picks, I would look to see if you could get two 2023 first-rounders, as the hype for that class will only continue to increase with time.
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