RADIO
Joe Nicely breaks down the FanDuel slate for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.
Hello RotoBaller PGA crew! It's great to be back with you guys and I appreciate you joining us here at RotoBaller!
In this article we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options, as well as a couple of GPP Value Plays worth considering.
Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - PGA DFS Overview
Pebble Beach Golf Links
6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa Annua - Designer: Jack Neville & Douglas Grant
We are dealing with two different courses this week, instead of the traditional three. In addition to Pebble, which players will play once over the first two rounds and for the entire weekend, Spyglass Hill (6,953 yds/Par-72/Poa) will also be in the rotation. Both are ruggedly beautiful, with the famous Pebble Beach being the crown jewel.
Both courses measure less than 7,000 yards, so distance isn't a necessity this week. Players will need to find fairways and greens, but that can be more difficult than it sounds in often unpredictable conditions. With the event smack-dab on the Monterrey Peninsula coast, huge changes in weather can, and often does, influence the outcome of this tournament.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Pebble Beach | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 267 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 72% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 56% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.50 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Scrambling
- Course History
- SG: Putting (Poa Annua)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.
High-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Patrick Cantlay ($11,900)
With Dustin Johnson's WD, Patrick Cantlay comes in as the most "elite" player in the field. After a sluggish 2020, he closed out the year with a win at the ZOZO Championship and has looked sharp in his two 2021 starts, posting a T13 at the Sentry TOC and a runner-up finish at the AmEx on the heels of an 18-under par weekend. Cantlay's Pebble Beach history is solid (T9 in 2013, T11 last year) and he's never missed a cut in four AT&T starts. I love Cantlay, but have struggled to pull the trigger on his high 2021 price tags, however, he represents perhaps the only true elite option in this week's watered-down field.
Daniel Berger ($11,600)
*Grabbing Daniel Berger by the neck and giving him the kiss of death*
YOU BROKE MY HEART, DANIEL...YOU BROKE MY HEART!
Shewww, Daniel Berger DESTROYED me last week! I was heavily invested at the WMPO, and while I was somehow able to salvage a small profit for the week, Berger's missed cut certainly derailed what could have been a huge week. We're supposed to set our emotions aside in DFS, but it's proving tough for me to pull the trigger on the FSU alum this week. However, while my heart says no, my head is telling me that this is a really juicy bounce-back spot for Berger. He's been great this season (until missing the cut on the number last week of course) and has a phenomenal record in this event, posting a T5 and a T10 in his only two previous starts in the AT&T. Berger's viability is only amplified by Dustin Johnson's WD from this tournament and, as bad as it hurts, I'll probably be back on board this week.
Paul Casey ($11,400)
Some of the concerns we had with Dustin Johnson this week also apply to Paul Casey. The Englishman has been tremendous in three trips to Pebble Beach - posting a runner-up finish and a T8 over his last three AT&T appearances - and he's also been excellent in his recent starts on the Euro Tour, winning in Abu Dhabi two weeks ago. However, like DJ, Casey teed it up in the Saudi International last week and will be fighting the fatigue that comes with international travel and playing his third tournament in as many weeks. I like Casey in a vacuum here, though I'm worried about the circumstances surrounding him.
Will Zalatoris ($11,200)
I was heavily invested in Zalatoris last week and - despite just managing a final-round 72 - he paid off with a T17 in Phoenix. He's received yet another price bump this week, which has really turned him from a speculative play to one we need to come through. I like to lean on experience at Pebble Beach, but Zalatoris obviously doesn't have much, posting a T68 in his lone AT&T start in 2018. Despite that relative inexperience, he must be considered a statistical no-brainer, as he's been elite from T2G over his short time on the PGA Tour. Over the last 12 rounds, he trails only Dustin Johnson in SG: Approach and grades out third in the AT&T field in SG: T2G.
Jordan Spieth ($11,100)
With the combination of his course history, the weak nature of this field, and his splashy weekend at the WMPO...I knew Jordan Spieth's price tag would be inflated this week. However, - even though it might be wishful thinking that he's finally found something - I'm still gonna nibble a bit here at $11.1k.
His blistering third-round 61 last Saturday was indeed electrifying and hopefully a sign of things to come. While Spieth was still horrible off the tee at WMPO ( -3.7 SG: OTT), his iron play was extremely encouraging, as the Texan led the WMPO in SG: Approach, gaining a massive 7.8 strokes on the field with his irons.
Obviously, we could be chasing fool's gold here, but I love to lean on experience in this event, and Spieth is a former AT&T winner that logged a T9 last year with his game in shambles. The erratic driver is a concern, though it won't kill him on these golf courses, and I especially love his chances if the wind kicks up (as it's expected to do at least a couple days).
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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Jason Day ($11,000)
Jason Day is something of a DFS Rubik's Cube, as just when you think you're starting to figure him out, things change. What we do know about the Aussie is he absolutely loves this Pebble Beach layout. He's ran off FOUR STRAIGHT top-five finishes in this event and owns a 69.19 career scoring average in the AT&T!
After a brief renaissance late last year, Day hasn't looked good in 2021, missing the cut in both of his starts this calendar year. He's now lost strokes T2G in eight of his last 10 starts dating back to 2020, although he did finish in the positive T2G last week. Rostering Day is purely a bet on his ultra-elite course history.
Kevin Streelman ($10,400)
Kevin Streelman has been a beast in this event for several years. He scored a runner-up finish last year, which marked his third-straight Pebble Beach start with at least a T7. In addition to the elite course history at Pebble, Streels heads to the AT&T with trending form. He posted a solid, if unspectacular, T37 at the AmEx a few weeks ago and looked sharp en route to a T30 last week in Phoenix.
Different events play to different strengths, and this week’s AT&T is one that routinely rewards experience. Streelman is an old hand on these golf courses and I look for him to once again play well this week.
Max Homa ($10,100)
I've been banging the Max Homa drum for the last couple of weeks, and despite a T42 last week in Phoenix, I'm staying on board this week. The result wasn't great for Homa at TPC Scottsdale, but he was actually unbelievably-good with his irons, gaining 5.8 strokes on Approach. Unfortunately, he struggled both off the tee (a recurring theme) and on the greens at the WMPO. I'm willing to overlook those aspects a bit this week. I would rather lean on Homa's sharp iron play of late and strong AT&T track record (T14-T10 in his last two Pebble Beach starts).
Henrik Norlander ($10,000)
I'm leaning on course history heavily this week, and while Henrik Norlander's is mediocre overall, he's improved over each of his four career starts in the AT&T, culminating with a top-25 outing last year. We could also make the argument that Norlander is a different player now, as his results have dramatically improved over the past year or so. He's looked extremely strong in 2021, posting impressive finishes at the AmEx (T12), Farmers (T2), and the WMPO (T22). Norlander grades out fifth in the AT&T field in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds and has lots of signs indicating a big week could be in store.
Matt Jones ($9,700)
This is always an event in which I find myself considering players that aren’t consistently on my DFS radar. That’s where we are with Matt Jones, a solid golfer, but one that I’m not routinely targeting. A T11 at the Sony and a T21 at the AmEx indicate he’s playing well though, not to mention the fact that he’s gained strokes T2G in four-straight events. He brings that consistent play to a Pebble layout where he’s made the cut in 11 of 13 career starts and posted a top-five in last year’s AT&T.
Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Matthew NeSmith ($9,600)
I'm always willing to give NeSmith a look on shorter layouts and he's definitely worth serious consideration in the context of this week's slate. His irons have been firing in his last two starts, as he gained 6.6 on Approach at the Farmers and 4.7 last week in Phoenix, a performance that resulted in a T7 at the WMPO. NeSmith's Pebble Beach history isn't extensive, but a T11 in his AT&T debut last year is certainly impressive.
Peter Malnati ($9,400)
One of our favorite horses during the Swing Season, Pete has carried some positive momentum into 2021 and posted a couple of impressive finishes as a result. Malnati is coming of a T10 in his most recent start at the Farmers and also has a T14 at the Sony to his credit. Sandwiched between those outings is a missed cut at the AmEx, which perfectly illustrates Malnati's volatility. Those erratic tendencies have also translated to his performances in the AT&T, as he's went T11-MC-T35-MC over his last four starts at Pebble Beach. This isn't a play you want to rely on, but I like the upside he brings to the table in GPPs.
Nick Taylor ($9,300)
Nick Taylor's win in this event last year was certainly surprising, but a closer look at his Pebble Beach track record indicates it wasn't flukey. Taylor had posted finishes of T28-T10-MC-T30 in his four prior trips to Pebble, an impressive game log in an event known for its unpredictability. The Canadian has played well in spurts this season, posting a T11 at Sony and standing at 10-under par after the first two rounds of the AmEx before fading over the weekend. I don't usually love rostering defending champions of an event, but the lack of options in this field has me more than willing to consider Taylor this week.
Rafa Cabrera Bello ($9,000)
The theme in this price range - and for this whole slate, really - seems to be "intriguing upside, but very tough to trust". That's where we find ourselves with Rafa Cabrera Bello, a player with a T22 and a T26 on his AT&T resume since 2018. RCB has been active - and successful - on the Euro Tour this year, logging a top-five finish in Abu Dhabi and top-35 outings in Dubai and Saudi. Unfortunately, those recent starts make me slightly concerned about the travel/fatigue factor that we've discussed with some other players on this slate. Toss in the fact that the Spaniard has been nowhere near as consistent in the U.S. as he has been internationally, and we've got ourselves yet another "GPP Only" option.
GPP Value Options
Scott Stallings ($8,800)
I know you guys are probably sick of hearing about Scott Stallings from me, but I've gotta highlight my guy once more here. Stallings has been very sharp from T2G in recent outings (+4.7 SG: T2G AmEx, +1.2 Farmers, +4.7 WMPO), but hasn't posted any strong finishes due to his inability to make any putts. If you follow PGA DFS closely, you know that putting can change at anytime, which is why I'm willing to stay on Scott at a venue where he has went MC-3rd-7th-T14 since 2017.
Andrew Putnam ($8,700)
Formerly a top-50 player in the world, Andrew Putnam's game has been on the skids for the last couple of years. However, he seems to be rounding into form in 2021, as he mustered a T21 at the AmEx and an impressive T7 last week in Phoenix. Putnam has been extremely effective around the greens, grading out sixth in SG: ATG over the last 12 rounds, and his ability to scramble (eighth in Scrambling Gained) puts him on my radar on this Pebble Beach track that has miniscule greens.
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