June 1, 2016

Andrew Bua explores whether improved contact rate for these MLB hitters will lead to good things for your fantasy baseball team in week 9.

RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days.

The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you be buying or selling on that particular player.

This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]) or reach out on Twitter (@Andrew_Bua).

Contact Rate Risers

Edwin Encarnacion: 79% Season Contact Rate, 89% L7 Contact Rate (+10%)

Due to his underwhelming play, Edwin Encarnacion has been one of the biggest fantasy baseball lighting rods this season. His .239/.314/.443 slash line in particular should demonstrate something has been up with his contact rate, right? Wrong. Encarnacion’s 80% contact rate is slightly below his previous figures, but is still higher than 2015’s (78.4%) in what was arguably his best season. This year, he’s making 1.2% less contact on pitches outside the zone, but 3% more contact inside it. With that in mind, what does a 10% increase in contact rate over the last week mean? Probably nothing; contact rate hasn’t been an issue for him to begin with. The problem seems to be more with how hard he’s hitting the ball; his 32.3% hard hit ball rate would be his lowest since 2012. You shouldn’t be buying in here simply based on his contact rate the last week.

Kyle Seager: 82% Season Contact Rate, 91% L7 Contact Rate (+9%)

Kyle Seager started the season slow but has gradually gotten better as the year has progressed. The last seven days have seen Seager make 9% more contact, bringing his batting average up to .263. Seager’s overall contact rate has been down; his 81.5% figure would be a career-low. When he has made contact, however, he’s been getting somewhat unlucky. His 37.6% hard hit ball rate is only .02% short of his career-high yet his .268 BABIP would be a career-worst. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before a breakout, especially because he was hitting the ball so hard. If he’s going to be making more contact, especially hard contact, it’s easy to see Seager making a complete comeback. He’s already been on the rise, but you should seriously consider buying in if the opportunity is there.

Melvin Upton, 73% Season Contact Rate, 88% L7 Contact Rate (+15%)

Melvin Upton has been enjoying a renaissance of sorts in 2016. His .258/.323/.416 slash line is better than the .245/.324/.402 line he carried with Tampa, and his cooperative health has allowed him to already meet or surpass his counting stats from his first year as a Padre. Does his increased contact rate over the last week indicate we’re in store for an even better Melvin Upton? It’s tough to envision Upton being significantly greater than he has been so far. Despite the increased contract rate this week, his batting average is 40 points lower than his mark for the season during that span. Still, the fact that he’s making strides with contact ability demonstrates the resurgence is very real. While you shouldn’t be buying Upton as a player who is getting better based on the last week, you should be buying him as a player whose contact rate indicates what he’s done so far is no fluke.

Contact Rate Fallers

Adam Eaton, 84% Season Contact Rate, 65% L7 Contact Rate (-19%)

After a breakout 2015, fantasy owners had high hopes for Adam Eaton. He was a well-rounded force last season, but hasn’t lived up to that in 2016. Now he shows up on our list with the largest negative contact differential rate (-19%) over the last week. What does this difference mean? While his batting average remains right in line with his career numbers, one component of his contact rate does not. On pitches outside the strike zone, Eaton has a career 73.9% contact rate (71.6% last season). This year that number is 83.3%, a whopping 8.7% over his career-best. That number probably isn’t sustainable for Eaton. In conjunction with his decreasing overall contact rate, it might indicate he’s in for a batting average decline. You probably weren’t happy with him before, and this is all the more reason to sell.

Starlin Castro, 79% Season Contact Rate, 68% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)

Starlin Castro shows up on this list as a guy who started 2016 strong but has gradually slowed. He’s still providing above average power numbers for a second basemen, but his decrease in contact may indicate an inability to contribute further. Castro’s overall contact figures aren’t good; his O-Contact (67.7%), Z-Contact (84.7%), and swinging strike rate (10.8%) would all be career-lows. His .250 batting average isn’t helped much by his .274 BABIP, but Castro hasn’t reached a .300 BABIP in three out of the last four seasons. Based on the contact issues that were already present (and is now worsening) and a BABIP that isn’t likely to significantly rise, Castro’s batting average looks likely to dip further. He’s worth consideration if you’re simply looking for power at second base, but otherwise you should think about selling.

Hanley Ramirez, 75% Season Contact Rate, 70% L7 Contact Rate (-5%)

After a nightmare first season in Boston, Hanley Ramirez has rebounded with a vengeance in 2016. His averages are night and day compared to 2015 and he’s on pace to eclipse last season’s counting stats pretty soon (except home runs). With Hanley back on track, it might come as a concern to see him pop up on this list with a -5% contact rate differential the past week. For those that were willing to give him a shot after last season’s mess, fear not. Hanley’s already having a great season with the lowest contact rate of his career, so he clearly doesn’t need to be making contact at his regular rate to maintain success. Furthermore, he’s never finished with a contact rate under 80% despite arguably being a much worse player in previous seasons. With his strikeout rate at a career-high (21.3%), it’s entirely possible we see Ramirez struggle as we go along. However, the 5% decrease in contact this week is not an indication of that just yet, and certainly shouldn’t be a reason you look to sell.

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