RADIO
We are already at Conference Championship Week! A few teams can play spoiler this week. A couple can throw the playoff into complete and utter chaos. Then we have Akron and Buffalo finishing out their season by making up the game that was canceled by Snowmageddon 2022.
There wasn't much left to learn this week. South Carolina is going to be a dangerous team next year...if Spencer Rattler sticks around. Ohio State's defense may have cost them a playoff spot. Jim Harbaugh was playing possum with J.J. McCarthy all along. TCU left no doubt that they are a playoff team by running up the score on the Big 12(10)'s best scoring defense.
Since we are being thankful, I want to take the opportunity to thank all of you loyal readers. I appreciate all of you and look forward to providing many more articles here at RotoBaller!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 14 (12/2)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
We have the MACtion makeup game and two conference championships on Friday. How about that! A football game at noon on Friday for the second straight week?
Akron at Buffalo(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I know that Buffalo needs this win to go bowling, but honestly, Akron looks like the better team right now. Even if the Zips don't win outright, I feel like we're being gifted a line here. There shouldn't be any possible way Buffalo wins this by double digits. Give me the Zips.
North Texas at UTSA(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You know I love the Roadrunners, but they only won this game by four in San Antonio in the first meeting and they still had Brenden Brady and De'Corian Clark. However, the Mean Green have struggled a bit of late. Still...this is too many. This should stay within one score. Give me the Mean Green.
(11)Utah vs. (4)USC(-2.5) at Las Vegas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Mormons in Vegas never ends well. Kingpin taught me that. I'm taking USC this time.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 13. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
I had a decent Friday after my first sub-par Tuesday. I'm afraid of Saturday. I didn't watch nearly as much football as I should have. I did see Michigan lower the boom on the Buckeyes for the second straight season, so I know I missed that one.
Bowling Green at Ohio(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was a nice run for Bowling Green and I hope they still get a bowl invite, but they were overmatched in this one. It looks like Ohio will still be in good hands when Kurtis Rourke moves on.
Ball State at Miami(OH)(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Damn you, Miami. If only you had kicked both extra points after those fourth-quarter touchdowns, you would have covered by the half. Perhaps what's more impressive is that the Redhawks escaped with a win despite Carson Steele running for 180 yards and both Ball State touchdowns.
Mississippi State at (20)Mississippi(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bulldogs were able to shut down freshman sensation Quinshon Judkins and stopped the Rebels' bid for a tying two-point conversion with just over a minute left. It was a rough game for Will Rogers, but the Bulldogs still managed to help him pull this out.
(19)Tulane at (24)Cincinnati(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tulane has their first ten-win season since 1998 and snapped Cincinnati's home winning streak at 32 games. Tyjae Spears finally showed the world what I have been seeing all season: he's a really good back. This game may have been different if Ben Bryant were able to play. Evan Prater was mostly a disaster.
Baylor at (23)Texas(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was sweating this one for a while, but Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johson, and the Texas line were finally too much for the Bears in the fourth quarter.
Utah State at Boise State(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I was feeling really good about this one until a disastrous fourth quarter from the Aggies. They allowed two touchdowns with 1:34 left to blow the cover. Jackasses...
Central Michigan(-1.5) at Eastern Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I never learn with Eastern Michigan. Taylor Powell had a really nice game once again.
Toledo(-7.5) at Western Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Dequan Finn was able to play for about a series for the Rockets, but they weren't going to risk him since their spot in the MAC Championship was already secured. All of you that are in favor of playoff expansion, pay close attention to this! This is what will be the theme of rivalry week if the expansion goes through. Tucker Gleason was solid but mostly inaccurate and couldn't lead the Rockets on sustained drives.
Arizona State at Arizona(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I hit the over bet, but Arizona came up a half-point short of covering this. This was a game where a half-dozen offensive players put up something out of a video game. Michael Wiley only carried the ball 21 times, but he had 214 yards and three touchdowns. He was so far in the clear on a couple of those that no one would have caught him for another hundred yards. The end zones actually capped his upside...
North Carolina State at (17)North Carolina(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Drake Maye keyed an unlikely comeback to force overtime in the fourth quarter, but it was still a rough game for the freshman overall. Ben Finley looked good in his first start and Devin Carter shined in his return to the field. This was a big win for the Pack.
Arkansas(-3.5) at Missouri: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was Brady Cook, not K.J. Jefferson that put up big numbers in this game. The Missouri defense held tough in the second half to make the Tigers bowl-eligible. Who would have thought that back in September?
New Mexico at Colorado State(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Rams pitching a shutout didn't surprise me at all. The defense has been legit all season long. It has been the offense that was a mess. They looked markedly better in this one.
Nebraska at Iowa(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nebraska damn near blew a 24-point lead to a team that averages 17 per game, of which about six of those were thanks to the defense. Hey, it wasn't just a moral victory for Nebraska, but it was bittersweet. Trey Palmer declared for the NFL Draft and Mickey Joseph is left to decide if he wants to hang around as part of Matt Rhule's staff. You did a hell of a job, Mickey. If they don't want you, it's their fault. I would have liked to see what you could do in three years in Lincoln.
(18)UCLA(-10.5) at California: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bears came up a little short in this one, but Jack Plummer had his best game of the season. Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues to deliver on that promise this year as UCLA is in line for a good bowl game somewhere. You heard it here first: Cal is good enough to contend for the Pac-12 next year.
Florida at (16)Florida State(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Anthony Richardson completed five of his first seven passes for three touchdowns...and didn't complete another one for the rest of the game. However, Florida State did grab his face mask on the last Florida play, which should have resulted in a first down and the game extended, but the officials didn't see it even though millions of us did. It wasn't a good look. Trevor Etienne looks about as good as his brother and Ricky Pearsall had a monster first quarter. This is a game that the Gators easily could have, and should have had another chance to, win.
Wyoming at Fresno State(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Can you imagine where Fresno would be had Jake Haener not gotten hurt against USC? The Fresno defense pitched a shutout against a slow-moving, but still not bad, Wyoming offense. They certainly looked bad here...
Georgia Tech at (1)Georgia(-36.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Tech defense only allowed 37 to the Bulldogs, so this was a resounding success for me. The Wreck had absolutely no chance of winning this game though. Even when they were ahead after the first quarter, it felt tentative.
(3)Michigan at (2)Ohio State(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ohio State allowed five touchdowns on plays of 45 yards or more in this one. Jim Harbaugh was building up to this for the entire season. We never really saw J.J. McCarthy pass because he didn't have to. We saw it early and often in this one so it would soften up the Buckeyes to get trampled in the second half. When the dust settled, Michigan had their largest win over Ohio State since 1976 and their first back-to-back wins in the series since 1999-2000. Ohio State's poor defensive showing might cost them a playoff berth.
South Carolina at (8)Clemson(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win here, but this did showcase what could have been for the Gamecocks. That defense has been strong all season. What they did to D.J. Uiagalelei was proof of that. It was the offense holding them back. This was the first time in school history that South Carolina has beaten a top-ten team in back-to-back weeks.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If I had known that Spencer Sanders wasn't going to play, I would have changed this bet.
Army(-19.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Knights need to beat Navy to be bowl-bound this year. Tyhier Tyler adds another dimension to this offense, and they made UMass very uncomfortable.
New Mexico State at Liberty(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Huh? There's busting a spread. Then there's busting a 25-point spread. The Aggies blew that away by busting a 25-point spread and winning by 35. Where was Diego Pavia for the rest of the season? Who am I to say that the Aggies don't deserve a bowl berth after this?
Rutgers at Maryland(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Rutgers is the worst 4-8 team in FBS this year.
Coastal Carolina at James Madison(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In one of the most corrupt rules in the totally corrupt NCAA organization, James Madison, who earned the right to play in the Fun Belt Championship and in a bowl game on the field, will not get to participate in either one. Why? Because they haven't "paid their dues" (read: contribute enough money) to FBS yet and shouldn't be allowed a piece of that lucrative pie. This is exhibit number 1,296 why the NCAA is a corrupt pack of jackasses. The Dukes should be playing this weekend, not the CCU team that they destroyed by 40 points in this game.
Old Dominion at South Alabama(-15.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The losing streak for the Monarchs is still intact, but they played the Jaguars tough. Hayden Wolff and company had the lead at halftime.
Georgia State at Marshall(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The last thing I needed was to be smacked by that half. Georgia State outplayed Marshall and just lost control in the fourth quarter when Khalon Labron finally wore down the Panthers' defense enough.
Western Kentucky(-7.5) at Florida Atlantic: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Hilltoppers needed a two-point conversion in the first overtime to escape with the win. This was one of the better college games that N'Kosi Perry played in his career. He could still come back, but I don't feel that's likely since the Owls fired Willie Taggart after the game.
East Carolina(-9.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is there any possible way E.J. Warner stays at Temple? I would like to see it, but he is putting up video game numbers now. Like, numbers even his dad could be jealous of. This wasn't a great defensive performance by the Owls, but if the offense can now keep up, look out!
Kent State at Buffalo(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Buffalo now needs to win the rescheduled game against Akron, who just trashed NIU in DeKalb, just to make a bowl. This is one they couldn't afford to blow. Marquez Cooper is a freaking beast. He's the best back in the MAC right now, but Sieh Bangura could overtake him as soon as next season.
Akron at Northern Illinois(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't think I would see Akron blow out anyone this year, but they just did to the Huskies in their own house. This was Akron's largest win since September 8...of 2018. It was their largest road win since 2002. If D.J. Irons and company stick around, this is going to be a solid team next season.
Rice at North Texas(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A quarterback change caused Rice to give the Mean Green all they could handle. It nearly got UNT another shot at UTSA this weekend. How about that performance by Ikaika Ragsdale? He should be the starting back this week no matter what!
(25)Louisville at Kentucky(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Malik Cunningham was a shadow of his former self when he got the call in this game. On the bright side for Louisville, Jawhar Jordan looks like a really good back.
Auburn at (7)Alabama(-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm man enough to admit when I got lucky, and I most certainly did here. Bama scored 35 in the first half, then let off the gas. I do wish Auburn would keep Cadillac around. If they don't, he deserves to be a head coach somewhere. We need that kind of enthusiasm on the sidelines!
(9)Oregon(-3.5) at (21)Oregon State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a tough one to take. Duck U blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead and it only took them about six minutes to do it. Going for it on your own 29 was one of the most arrogant – and most stupid – play calls I have seen from a team this season. Oregon State's defense is solid. Despite giving up 34, they had played well for the most part up to that point and you had just turned it over inside your own 10. That call and the failed play completely changed the game. This loss is on the Oregon coaching staff.
Illinois(-14.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have bet more on this. The gift of picking against Northwestern is done for this year. It wasn't even Chase Brown that did the bulk of the damage. Illinois was able to save him just in case they backed into the Big Ten(14) Championship.
Minnesota at Wisconsin(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
My suspicions were correct. Minnesota finally turned Athan Kaliakmanis loose and he torched the Badgers for 319 yards and a pair of touchdowns through the air. Too bad they didn't try it when they still had more to play for...
Purdue(-10.5) at Indiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tom Allen always gets Indiana to put up a fight, even when the team is in shambles. It was another rough season for the Hoosiers that ended with them losing another quarterback to the transfer portal. I'll be even more concerned if Conner Bazelak in 2023 turns into the 2022 version of Michael Penix.
Wake Forest(-3.5) at Duke: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That's what I get for believing in Wake in the face of how they have collapsed since the third quarter against Louisville. No player has done more to hurt their draft stock in the last month than Sam Hartman. Riley Leonard showed him up and Jalon Calhoun ate the Wake secondary alive.
Hawaii at San Jose State(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was another workmanlike performance from Brayden Schager to keep the Warriors close, but too much Kairee Robinson spelled the end for Hawaii. The growth of Schager over the last month should keep him as the starter for Hawaii heading into 2023.
Memphis at SMU(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Too many little mistakes for SMU blew the cover, but Rashee Rice wasn't about to let them lose this game.
Troy(-13.5) at Arkansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Who does Kimani Vidal think he is, Troy Davis? He has 450 rushing yards and six touchdowns over the last two games alone. I honestly feel sorry for the CCU defense trying to stop him...
UAB(-17.5) at Louisiana Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How in the world did DeWayne McBride run for 272 yards and the Blazers fail to cover? Make it make sense!
UTEP at UTSA(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yeah, I didn't have to worry about the half in this line. I had to worry about 30 halves. UTEP gave a valiant effort in their quest for a bowl game, but too much Frank Harris did them in.
Iowa State at (4)TCU(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is one of the few times I went against TCU this year and only my second miss on Iowa State all season. It feels really bad though...you know...since TCU hung 62 on the best scoring defense in the Big 12(10).
Michigan State at (11)Penn State(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was really close until Penn State scored two touchdowns in the final ten minutes. I ended up sweating the end of this one when it looked like Michigan State might even get an outright win.
(14)Utah(-29.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A total disaster of a season finally comes to a close for the Ralphies. Owen McCown should be back last year and they will have a new coach, so maybe...just maybe...they won't lose seven games by more than 30 points next year.
Southern Mississippi(-3.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A healthy Trey Lowe made a huge difference for the Eagles. Frank Gore Jr. finally has someone that can help him out on this offense. Southern Miss is going bowling, and they are going to be a tough out for whoever draws them.
Louisiana(-4.5) at Texas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Lincoln Pare ran for 221 yards for the Bobcats and they still lost by 28 points. I didn't think that was possible...
Nevada at UNLV(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Of course, UNLV finds a way to burn me again. Nate Cox got another start for the Pack and he actually looked like a serviceable quarterback. Cox nearly led Nevada to an outright win as the Pack were driving late in the fourth quarter before a fourth-down pass was knocked away on the last play of the game.
Appalachian State(-6.5) at Georgia Southern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew I should have hedged this with an over bet. Kyle Vantrease hit a 25-yard pass here for Georgia Southern on the second play of double overtime to seal the win.
Middle Tennessee State(-19.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
MTSU looked gassed from lighting up FAU last week. In fact, it took a pick-six for them to even win this game.
(5)LSU(-9.5) at Texas A&M: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should listen to my intuition more often. This was, in fact, a giant trap...and I feel right into it. LSU was thoroughly outplayed in this game and their run defense got exposed a week before Georgia. Good luck with that...
(22)Central Florida(-20.5) at South Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The War On I-4 lived up to the hype! I was fully prepared to take this one on the chin as well, but Byrum Brown and Brian Battie had other ideas. South Florida overcame a 28-0 deficit to win this one. They were 0-29 this century when facing that big of a deficit. Get ready for a mass exodus of quarterbacks in the transfer portal out of Tampa. Byrum Brown is there to stay.
(15)Notre Dame at (6)USC(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Caleb Williams only threw one touchdown pass, but he threw gasoline on the Heisman fire by running for three of them. Austin Jones did all the work, Caleb got all the glory. The Irish kept it fairly close, but they were never in any danger of winning this game.
(10)Tennessee(-13.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There's nothing like a 56-point win over your in-state rival with your backup quarterback to end the regular season on a high note, right? This was rough, Vandy.
Oklahoma(-2.5) at Texas Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a tough one to take. We lose our first game ever in Morgantown in a game that we should have won, then we blow a 14-point lead in Lubbock to let another one slip away. Don't blame Dillon Gabriel. The guy threw for 449 yards and six touchdowns. No, this was a defensive issue...again...
Syracuse(-10.5) at Boston College: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Syracuse needed a monster fourth quarter to steal out of Boston with a win. The Orange scored 26 points in the final quarter to finally get a lead and a win against the Eagles.
Tulsa at Houston(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
By now, I should know better than to trust Houston's defense at all. JuanCarlos Santana shredded the secondary this time. Which receiver will become a household name against the Cougars in a bowl game? We'll find out on Sunday!
Kansas at (12)Kansas State(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Jayhawks kept up for a half, but too much Deuce Vaughn spelled their end in the second half. Vaughn racked up 229 all-purpose yards in this one.
Pittsburgh(-6.5) at Miami: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not usually one to pile on, but the Hurricanes got embarrassed on their own field again, with Tyler Van Dyke back. Everyone in South Florida wanted Mario Cristobal, but was it the right choice? Miami's defense made Kedon Slovis look like Dan Marino and Jared Wayne look like Larry Fitzgerald.
Air Force(-1.5) at San Diego State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Air Force defense thwarted everything the Aztecs even thought about doing. They destroyed the SDSU run game and forced Jalen Mayden into a few mistakes to lock this game down.
(13)Washington(-1.5) at Washington State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michael Penix flew the friendly skies in the Boeing Apple Cup with 485 yards and three touchdowns. Maybe he can get a NIL deal for leading FBS in passing yards with Boeing. It just makes too much sense, doesn't it? I'm curious to see how many quarterbacks in the transfer portal are going to try to land Washington's QB job heading into next season.
BYU(-6.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
BYU racked up 28 first-half points and the defense still nearly blew this.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I usually have some troubles with rivalry week, but I'm usually not drowning in debt from a horrible season when I do so. This year the 29-345 mark during rivalry week hits differently since I am now 341-381 on the season. I need to be nearly perfect to even finish at .500. We all have no reason to believe that can happen.
I had high hopes after a good start to the week, but Saturday's nooners ruined me.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-0 (53-33) = 20
2. 12-16 (139-162) = -46
3. 10-12 (103-114) = -33
4. 2-5 (31-49) = -72
5. 1-1 (15-23) = -40
I lost another 22 points this week, but at least I'm showing those one-point bets whose boss! I am now 171 points down on the season and I owe my piggy bank 81 points. If I had my one-pointers as my fives, I would still have money in the bank...
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