RADIO
It was another fun week in the last great college football season. USC needed a miracle to beat Cal. Oklahoma lost to Kansas for the first time since 1997. Kansas beat a top-10 team in Lawrence for the first time since 1984. Clemson lost back-to-back regular season games for the first time in 12 years.
We have five more games before the weekend this week. Tuesday's and Wednesday's picks were in the DFS articles. That may be the case going forward with ESPN blessing us with so many mid-week games between the Fun Belt, Conference USA, and MACtion. Hey, I'm not complaining. Any weekday with college football on is a gift in my book!
We have three teams slumming this week in the FCS ranks. UMass and Sam Houston can be excused. They didn't do it earlier in the season. North Carolina is just because they desperately need a win!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 10 (11/2-3/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
TCU at Texas Tech (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It is down almost universally to -3, but I'm okay with giving that half. I won't let too much ride on Tech because they have made a bad habit of letting me down lately. Give me Tech but lower the bet a bit.
Wake Forest at Duke (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not confident enough in Riley Leonard's health to go crazy with this. Give me Duke, but I don't trust it.
South Alabama at Troy (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The line has no business being this close. Troy rolls yet again!
Boston College at Syracuse (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Orange finally get a break again. They had a bit of a rough stretch, but it gets easier here with BC.
Colorado State at Wyoming (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm getting the half too? I'm game. Give me the Rams. They might not win outright, but this feels like a one-score game.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the bad along with the good? Here are the results from this season so far. I am still updating the past year's results and adding them to the sheet. I found most of my old articles and have the points system all the way back to 2015. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 4
It took the Aggies a bit to get going. The Bulldogs did a good job containing Diego Pavia for most of the game.
Liberty (-3.5) at Western Kentucky: HIT
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
The Hilltoppers ran more than usual and Austin Reed threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns on a good defense. It still wasn't enough.
Jacksonville State (-7.5) at Florida International: HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
I really hope that a lot of teams miss out on bowl eligibility so the NCAA is forced to invite Jacksonville State and James Madison. Every football fan with thank them for it.
UTEP at Sam Houston (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
The Bearkats blow another tough one at the end. Their first FBS win will have to wait at least another two weeks.
Syracuse at Virginia Tech (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
One of the easiest bets I've ever made.
Georgia State at Georgia Southern (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
All it takes to turn Davis Brin into Paxton Lynch is a rivalry game.
Florida Atlantic (-4.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I love watching Lajohntay Wester play. He looks like an NFL receiver.
(4) Florida State (-20.5) at Wake Forest: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If Florida State's road woes are a thing of the past, look out. The Big 12(14) is toast, leaving the door wide open for Florida State in a lackluster ACC.
(6) Oklahoma (-9.5) at Kansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I wish this sort of thing surprised me anymore. Losing Austin Stogner and Danny Stutsman during the game hurt, but it was really clear which team wanted this more. Oklahoma's defense was shredded on the last drive after Oklahoma played not to lose. They didn't play to win. You ALWAYS try for a first down. Kansas had been gouging us all day. For the first time this year, I felt like the tackling was suspect and players were out of position on defense. Most of that was after Stutsman went down.
Live it up, Kansas fans! You've earned it! Many of you were there through the lean years. Many of you have supported Coach Leipold since he got there. It's stuff like this that makes college football so special. No matter how many times the dimwits in charge try to make it into the NFL with stupid rule changes, the fans will never let the spirit die!
I'm not going to say that we lost to a bad team. That's not the case. I've been singing the praises of Lance Leipold and Kansas for a couple of years now. Still, it's unfortunate because everything was wide open for Oklahoma to get into the playoff without backing their way in. A one-loss Big 12(14) team shouldn't make it. The conference isn't the disaster that it was a month ago, but that's the way it should be. We still don't need an expanded playoff. I like the world where I'm disappointed in this loss. Next year it won't matter.
Meanwhile, Kansas gets their first win against a top-10 team since 2008, their first home win against a top-10 team since 1984, and their first win over the Sooners since 1997. Sure, the Sooners made mistakes, but every team does. I'm going to lay the blame for this loss where it belongs: it's Kansas's fault that we lost this game. They came out and outplayed the Sooners for most of the game.
Indiana at (10) Penn State (-32.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That Penn State offense is flatter than a can of Coke left open for a week. Perhaps even more concerning is that Brendan Sorsby and the Hoosiers ripped off a couple of big plays on that defense. The vultures are circling around not-so-Happy Valley again. It usually happens this time of year.
Massachusetts at Army (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew I should have picked UMass! What I did not see happening was Army getting chewed up on the ground. Kayron Lynch-Adams trampled the Cadets in this one.
Connecticut at Boston College (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a sloppy game for Boston College. If it were any other team, they wouldn't have gotten away with it.
Maryland (-13.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Maryland defense is a big problem. Meanwhile, David Braun might be the coach of the year and the Wildcats haven't even removed the interim tag. I think most people would understand if the Wildcats went 0-for-North America this year after what happened in the offseason. Instead, the Wildcats stormed back to beat Minnesota and knocked off a Maryland team that was a trendy pick to make some noise in the Big Ten(14).
South Carolina at Texas A&M (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Aggies rolled and still didn't cover.
Houston at Kansas State (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Someone should tell Mike Gundy this is how you handle using two quarterbacks and two running backs. This was a superb performance by the Wildcats defense. Where was the Houston team that almost knocked off Texas? They sure weren't in Manhattan on Saturday.
West Virginia at Central Florida (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have put more on this one. West Virginia did a decent job against the Big 12(14)'s best-rushing team and they turned over John Rhys Plumlee in ways we haven't seen since his Ole Miss days. That defense is still a force. It's almost like Bob Huggins is coaching the defense this year.
Tulsa at SMU (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How bad is Tulsa? They allowed 69 points to an offense that was stuck in neutral until a week or so ago. How good is SMU? It has been less than a year since they scored that many points in a game. The Cougars scored 77 on Houston last year in one of the craziest college football games that I've ever seen. Man, I love this sport!
Western Michigan (-2.5) at Eastern Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The inability to stop the run dumped the Eagles yet again.
Clemson (-9.5) at North Carolina State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. The Pack beat Clemson in Raleigh even when Clemson is good! Clemson has back-to-back regular season losses for the first time in 12 years. It's not the defense. Cade Klubnik continues to make mistakes that a lot of quarterbacks don't, especially after starting for almost an entire season now.
Memphis (-7.5) at North Texas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a game that North Texas probably should have won. The defense got tired of trying to tackle Blake Watson. It looks like the Mean Green finally have a quarterback that can keep up with all of the points the defense gives up. It's nice to see Roderic Burns looking like he did as a freshman. The quarterback makes all the difference.
(1) Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida at Jacksonville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Every time the pundits question Georgia, they show up and prove why they are still the top-ranked team in the A.P. Poll. Carson Beck looks comfortable in this offense now and those receivers are starting to make plays. This is still a very dangerous team that is playing well at the right time.
This is why we love rivalries!
BYU at (7) Texas (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
When am I going to learn that the presence of Kedon Slovis loses a team seven points? Texas still covered even with the added seven.
(8) Oregon (-6.5) at (13) Utah: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Everyone, including myself, is sleeping on the Ducks. They are the best team in the Pac right now and it might not be close.
Pittsburgh at (14) Notre Dame (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
...and I thought Nebraska really screwed up in the transfer portal. I don't know how a Power Five team can be as bad as Pitt is right now.
(20) Duke at (18) Louisville (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that Riley Leonard only has one good leg, but that Louisville defense was dominant.
Mississippi State at Auburn (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was Peyton Thorne's best game at Auburn. Are they turning a corner? The defense has been good all season. It's the offense that's the problem. It wasn't in this one.
Michigan State at Minnesota (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jordan Nubin carried 40 times for 204 yards in this game. Minnesota just keeps finding running backs that can run through a brick wall. If they ever get a quarterback, they'll be dangerous. That's the way life goes in the Big Ten(14) West. I think it's a rule that you have to have at least two good backs and a terrible quarterback in that division.
Purdue at Nebraska (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the most complete game Nebraska has played in years. It doesn't even matter who it was against at this point. This is massive progress no matter how you look at it.
Virginia at Miami (FL) (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was proof that Virginia is finally starting to heal from last November. Malik Washington is the best receiver you've never heard of.
Iowa State (-2.5) at Baylor: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was another impressive performance by the Cyclones. This might be Matt Campbell's best coaching job at Iowa State, which is saying a lot. Who else does more with less than Campbell does?
East Carolina at UTSA (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I probably should have known better. Why would the Roadrunners risk Frank Harris more than they had to? Speaking of Harris, this is what we were expecting out of him (395 yards, four touchdowns).
Southern Mississippi at Appalachian State (-16.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's the Frank Gore Jr. that we know and love! We've missed you, buddy!
Miami (OH) at Ohio (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Come on, Redhawks! Where was that last week?
(22) Tulane (-10.5) at Rice: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You can't get much closer than that without winning. Rice showed a lot of heart coming back in this one, but they fell just short.
(24) USC (-10.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
How many different times could Cal have won this game? How many times should they have won this game? USC pulls one out of the fire again, but they can't be lucky forever. At some point, they'll have to be good. Maybe they should spend some of that NIL money on defensive players...
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That's what I get for finally buying into the Warhawks.
Louisiana at South Alabama (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I give up on South Alabama.
Wyoming at Boise State (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That was world domination for the Boise State defense. Andrew Peasley had his one good game for the year. Back to obscurity with you!
Marshall (-3.5) at Coastal Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Marshall offense has fallen apart. Jarrett Guest will be the next good quarterback in Conway. Too bad he'll go back to the bench when Grayson McCall returns.
(5) Washington (-27.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No one is winning uglier than the Huskies right now, but at least they're winning...unlike some teams I know...
(19) Air Force (-13.5) at Colorado State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Colorado State's defense ran out of gas in the second half. It happens against a team like Air Force.
(21) Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was by far Devin Leary's best game at Kentucky, but I think we learned more about Tennessee in the game. The Wildcats will be dangerous down the stretch if Leary has more games like this.
Troy (-6.5) at Texas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Easy money. I should have laid five on this one. I'm not making the same mistake this week!
(3) Ohio State (-14.5) at Wisconsin: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
That stupid half. Maybe just the stupid Ohio State offense. The Badgers were the first team to really confuse Kyle McCord. They still couldn't stop Marvin Harrison Jr. (in all fairness, no one can), but hey...baby steps. That half cost me a lot this week.
Vanderbilt at (12) Mississippi (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was good cardio for Ole Miss and their stable of backs.
Colorado at (23) UCLA (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This wasn't a great game by Colorado, but it was good enough. That's the best the defense has looked since mid-September.
(17) North Carolina (-11.5) at Georgia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Drake Maye should have taken his millions and run. That's three straight losses – all while ranked – to the unranked Wreck. It's amazing what kind of team the Bees are when they don't have a turnover machine at quarterback...
Old Dominion at (25) James Madison (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That James Madison defense came to life in the fourth quarter of this one to keep the Dukes undefeated...and the pressure on one of the NCAA's dumbest rules. Godspeed, gentlemen.
Washington State (-5.5) at Arizona State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Arizona may not have the best football, but they have the two most fun teams. That is exactly what college football is supposed to look like. Full of youthful exuberance and enthusiasm. Teams like USC have lost some of that. I don't think it's the money. Expectations might have something to do with it.
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If only all bets were this easy! Ollie Gordon is a cheat code right now.
(11) Oregon State (-3.5) at Arizona: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I shouldn't have gone against my gut. Arizona State is fun. Arizona is actually really good along with all that fun.
New Mexico at Nevada (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That's right...Nevada has a winning streak! It's longer than USC's and Penn State's, just to name a few. Let's make it three! The Pack is back!
UNLV at Fresno State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a great game. Ricky White can run routes with the best of them and Jayden Maiava is a strong quarterback. They still couldn't keep up with Mikey Keene though. UNLV reminds me of where Fresno was about five years ago. Good years are coming in Vegas.
(25) San Jose State (-10.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I definitely did not see Hawaii getting shut out to end the night. So it goes!
College Football Betting Season Results
Wow...good things happen when you don't start the week 1-9. I had a strong start to the week but struggled a little in the mid-day window. The hook in the Ohio State game got me. I had a slightly disappointing week at 26-28, but my season mark is still a solid 244-241. I've still got work to do. Hopefully I still won points this week! I did on my actual bets, but Ohio State hurt the bottom line.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-2 (20-29) = -9
2. 10-11(93-93) = 0
3. 7-11 (80-79) = 3
4. 5-3 (29-29) = 0
5. 3-1 (21-11) = 50
That's what a point system is supposed to look like...mostly. I got my fours back to zero. Now it's time to start making money on them. I still gained three points on the week and am up 44 points on the season. My grand total is still pending, but the good news is that I have recovered all articles since 2015 when I started the points system. My record-keeping wasn't as good then as it is now, so I'm fixing it as I go along. You can find updates in the other tabs on my spreadsheet at the top.
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