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Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Colin Moran is a 2021 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 375
CURRENT ADP: ~411 overall
ANALYSIS: The departure of Josh Bell in a trade to the Washington Nationals has opened up a full-time spot at first base for Moran who put up his most impressive power numbers last year. Moran led the Pirates in 2020 with 10 homers in 52 games (having hit 25 in his previous 309 MLB games prior) and had a .247/.325/.472 slash line.
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While Moran did lose .030 off his previous years' batting average, his slugging percentage was a career-best and he hit nearly as many homers in less than half the number of plate appearances than 2018 and 2019. He also had a career-best walk-rate (BB%) of 9.5% (8.4% in 2018 and 6.0% in 2019).
Not all the batting average drop is from selling out for more power however as Statcast had Moran's expected batting average (xBA) at .255 so a slight improvement on his actual average and his .291 BABIP was lower than previous years (.316 in 2018 and .341 in 2019). If his luck normalizes, a batting average around .260 (which is about the mark projections have him for in 2021) is in play.
There's no escaping the fact that the 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates offense will likely limit Moran's run and RBI production. That being said, Moran did lead the Pirates in both categories last year with 28 runs and 23 RBI, equating to 75 runs and 62 RBI over a 162 game season. He also spent most of 2020 hitting third or fourth in the lineup which will likely continue in 2021 and the Pirates simply don't have any reason not to start Moran against lefties and righties as they have no real suitable alternative at first base. Now entrenched in his peak years, Moran is poised to have a career year in 2021.
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