The Big Picture - Closer Committees Are Here to Stay

April 16, 2021

Pierre Camus takes a macro view of the fantasy baseball landscape by examining the changing emphasis on closers over the years. He identifies teams bound to use committees and relief pitchers (RP) worth adding for saves.

The fireman has morphed into a fire department. We've seen this trend coming in recent years but it appears that the days of a Major League team having a single definitive closer are all but over.

The instability that came with the 2020 season brought an increased reliance on middle relievers to spread out innings. This impacted starting pitchers, particularly in their innings totals. Now, the middle-reliever plague has spread all the way to the ninth inning and the fate of the once-heroic closer may be sealed.

While we will evaluate specific pitchers and teams, let's start by taking a step back to look at the big picture of closer committees and how they've invaded bullpens across MLB.

The Early Trend

Let's start with the obvious. There are 30 teams in Major League baseball. Ideally, there were be 30 distinct relief pitchers in line to save games. That's just not the case anymore.

35 different pitchers have recorded a save so far this season.

Edwin Diaz, Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly have a combined 0 saves.

— Rick Graham (@IAmRickGraham) April 8, 2021

That was after exactly one week of regular-season action. You can make it 46 different pitchers with a save now. This includes the fact that two teams, the Mets and A's, have yet to register a save in 2021.

While it is too early to make any hard and fast determination about how this season will go, this is the continuation of a trend that has just recently begun. I dug into five-year trends to see how many different closers were being used by teams and the results weren't surprising. With special thanks to RotoBaller data guru Jon Anderson (@JonPgh), we identified what the team share of saves looked like since 2017 for each club's primary closer and the results weren't shocking.

Can It Be That It Was All So Simple Then?

Let's start by finding out how many relievers secured at least half of their team's saves in a given season.

Back in 2017, it was good old Fernando Rodney leading the way with a 90% save share. All told, 15 closers accounted for at least half of their team's saves that season.

Next year, it dropped precipitously to eight. It goes to show how valuable those relievers were relative to the rest of the crowd. Then again, how many people were targeting Brad Boxberger on draft day?

In 2019, it stayed at eight. Notably only five pitchers earned more than 3/4 of their team's saves that season.

And then the total rises back to 14 over the short season. Of course, 2020 had to be all 2020 and throw things off to make it look like the trend was being bucked but don't be fooled. We saw a steep drop in the number of closers who were earning a lion's share of their team's save opportunities.

If you had the general sense that teams were relying on more pitchers to finish games, you would be correct. We should also note that the proportion of pitchers involved in the final inning of a ballgame jumped up by a wide margin in 2020.

*average number of games played per team as of April 12

More different relievers getting saves means fewer left to the ones that are supposed to be fantasy-relevant. Sharing is caring, except when it comes to winning roto categories. If you thought you were securing a strong foothold in saves after your draft, there's a really good chance you were dead wrong no matter who you took.

Proof is in the Pudding

By pudding, I'm referring to the gelatinous mass of relief pitchers that absorbed your draft capital and are now devouring your ratios, leaving nothing but a trail of ooze behind...

That might be a bit harsh but the point remains - if you took a closer other than, say, Aroldis Chapman, then you are likely disappointed already.

Anyone in a fantasy league that counts saves as a category is likely aware of this fact, but finding a reliable closer is hard to do. Only five relievers were selected in the top 100 overall picks of March NFBC drafts. A run then typically ensued when the mid-tier closers get snatched up in hopes of securing the majority of saves on a team. Turns out, even those picks were risky.

Here is an early list of closers who might prove unworthy of their draft cost. Here's the fallout after just two weeks of regular-season play.

• Liam Hendriks - 8.10 ERA, 1 SV, 1 BSV
• Josh Hader - 1 SV (it finally happened!)
• Edwin Diaz - 0 SV
• Raisel Iglesias - 7.20 ERA, 2 SV, 1 BSV
• James Karinchak - 0 SV, officially part of a committee
• Ryan Pressly - 0 SV
• Kenley Jansen - on shaky ground, too close to the edge...
• Trevor Rosenthal - on IL, possibly out for season
• Nick Anderson - on IL, out for season
• Kirby Yates - on IL, out for season
• Amir Garrett - 15.00 ERA

I could go on about how discount closers like Anthony Bass and Alex Colome have been blown up but it just feels like piling on at this point.

I have no concerns about Chapman, Hendriks or Hader and I realize the Mets have only played five games so Diaz has plenty of time left before melting down. The high-end closers might turn out to be more valuable than ever due to categorical scarcity but that makes a total of three guys you can feel somewhat secure in. If you insist on including Edwin Diaz or Ryan Pressly, that makes five.

So now we know that reliable closers are heading toward extinction and most of the ones you drafted are going to leave you with bitter disappointment. That doesn't seem overly helpful in and of itself, so let's evaluate some of the relievers that suddenly seem fantasy-relevant to determine their true worth (IMHO).

Full-Fledged Committees

Toronto Blue Jays - Don't let the fact that only one pitcher has secured a save up north fool you. Absolutely nobody had 29-year-old rookie Julian Merryweather on the fantasy radar before the season began, evidenced by his 737 ADP. He has picked up two saves in the team's first three wins but that's not guaranteed to last. It appears that Jordan Romano, the favorite to lead the team in saves before the season, will be used in high-leverage situations first and foremost. That required him to be deployed in the ninth inning of a tie game against the Yankees where he subsequently earned the win, with Merryweather coming in to secure the 10th frame. Three days later, he locked down the eighth inning of a 3-1 contest before ceding to Merryweather again.

Last year, once Ken Giles was lost to injury, the team splits save opportunities between Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, and Anthony Bass. It mostly became a hot-hand approach, so a misstep or two could easily relegate Merryweather to setup duties with Romano (or Dolis) in line for saves. Aggravating as this may play out, at least we should have a sense of who the guy is in any given week, unlike some other teams that mix and match based on the opponent, weather, or the day's Zodiac advice.

Cincinnati Reds - Just before the season began, manager David Bell declared Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims to be co-closers. This would be the fantasy football equivalent of a coach saying his backfield will be a 50-50 timeshare. In other words, maddeningly frustrating. My gut said Garrett would get first shot and wind up earning a 2:1 share of saves by season's end. Looks like I was right on the first count, maybe not the second. Garrett has allowed five earned runs in his first three innings of work, including two dongs, to the Pirates (the PIRATES?!?). It's still early but Garrett hasn't delivered on his bold talk so far. Sims is the safer player to roster but both still belong on fantasy teams wherever saves matter.

Oakland Athletics - This bullpen has been a rich source of saves, mostly by one primary closer, for the past few years. Who would earn that designation was a matter of much speculation before the team inked recently-revitalized Trevor Rosenthal to take up that mantle. He didn't throw a single pitch for his new team before heading to the injured list with thoracic outlet syndrome that could cost him most, if not all, of the 2021 season. Now we're back to wondering if it will be Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, Lou Trivino, or Sergio Romo who will earn saves. Of course, the A's will have to start winning games for it to matter. Diekman has the upside in fantasy but it sounds like Trivino is suddenly the favorite. Honestly, this bullpen should just be avoided for now.

Arizona Diamondbacks - Likewise, veteran Joakim Soria was signed late in the spring to stabilize this bullpen. So naturally, he went on IL five days into the season. Fallback options include Stefan Crichton, Chris Devenski, or Kevin Ginkel. Pray that Jon Duplantier gets called up and takes over, otherwise ignore.

On Shaky Ground, Too Close to the Edge...

Let's see if you know the ledge. There are a few relievers who seem to have won the closer job but could easily be waiver fodder in a month's time.

Cesar Valdez, Baltimore Orioles - Just when you thought the O's were going to be a feel-good story after sweeping Boston, with Valdez closing out two of those victories, they've reverted to their old ways. They are 1-5 since then and Valdez just took his first blown save in extra innings to those same Red Sox. If the save chances dry up, you aren't getting much else here. His 21.7% K% is barely league-average and his MiLB track record indicates we shouldn't expect more. Tanner Scott arguably has more upside and should be on watch lists.

Ian Kennedy, Texas Rangers - This veteran converted starter was able to nail down 30 saves in 2019 so the Rangers are betting on him to stabilize an injury-depleted bullpen. He started strong with two saves but served up a homer among three hits to the Padres on April 11. It was noted that his velocity was down to 92 that day whereas he was hitting 95 earlier. The path to saves is there but be ready to pull the plug at any moment.

Gregory Soto, Detroit Tigers - The closer job has never officially been his but he's got by far the best stuff in that bullpen and got first crack on Opening Day. Although he did notch the save, it wasn't an encouraging outing as he gave up a two-run homer to Roberto Perez and came dangerously close to blowing a 3-0 lead. He doesn't have a save since, whereas Bryan Garcia does. Soto is clearly the better pitcher but that doesn't mean he'll earn most of the opportunities.

Will Smith, Atlanta Braves - He should be the breadwinner here but he's allowed a run in three of his six appearances so far. Chris Martin, A.J. Minter, and Sean Newcomb are far from sure things but Martin and Minter have some experience closing out games. Personally, I want to see Tyler Matzek step in and take this job.

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers - We can't go without mentioning Jansen, who could get the hook after another bad outing like he had on April 7 when he walked two batters and gave up a run in the ninth. He has two saves on top of the blown one and is holding down a 1.93 ERA but Corey Knebel also has two saves. Brusdar Graterol, who could be the Dodgers' closer in the near future, should find his way back on the club soon too. It was a solid nine-year run but Jansen's time might be up for good.

So Where Do I Get Saves?

There are a few teams that will rely on a particular closer more than expected. We, the fantasy analyst community at large, expected San Diego to deploy a three-man committee that included Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan. Nope. It's been all Mark Melancon, who was clearly signed to close games and nothing more.

Similarly, Gabe Kapler was notorious for not sticking with anyone in Philly but it's been all Jake McGee so far in San Fran. Presumed closer Reyes Moronta showed up out of shape in the spring and was lit up, while Tyler Rogers saved his worst for the regular season. On the other hand, it looks like we can finally rely on Hector Neris in Philly (somehow finds way to blow save at 3:42 am as soon as I type this).

If Alex Reyes stays healthy, he is a strong hold despite the presence of Jordan Hicks and Giovanny Gallegos. Despite the rough start, Rafael Montero will be the guy in Seattle unless he completely falls apart, which I don't anticipate.

As far as waiver wire options, I would aggressively target players like Emmanuel Clase, Yimi Garcia, and Corey Knebel if they happen to be available in your league still. Keep an eye on high-end insurance policies like Mike Mayers, Jose Alvarado, Taylor Rogers, and Tanner Scott or stash them if you can afford to.

Conclusion

At this point, it's better to focus on the teams who rely on one closer most of the time rather than the player, especially if that is a multi-year trend. Teams like the Giants are exceptions since they have a different manager than they did back in 2019. Cleveland has predominantly chosen one closer for years but surprised everyone by announcing that James Karinchak was too good to deserve saves and would be used in a setup role instead.

The final number I want to leave you with is one. So far, 28 different pitchers have exactly one save. Put another way, that's 28 pitchers who have more saves than Edwin Diaz.

You can't expect to plug in two solid RP and dominate saves or even feel somewhat comfortable with 3-4 specific guys. It will be a mix-and-match situation all year long, so focus on ratios and K-rate first. Without one of the top closers, you may not "win" the saves category but remember that you don't need to in order to win your league!

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