Chris Davis: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper or Bust?

Then, a report came out after Davis’s suspension that was apparently for Adderall stating that Davis, who had a therapeutic use exemption (“TUE”) for Adderall in some past seasons but not in 2014, could not focus without Adderall and that the ball was looking like a blur. Now that he has received the TUE for 2015, the theory goes, he will return to seeing the ball as he did before. The problem with this theory? We don’t know when Davis used Adderall in the past. Was he using Adderall in 2013, his best season, when he reportedly did not have a TUE? Was he using Adderall in 2009, and if so, how do we explain his 35.8% strikeout rate? At what points in 2014 was he using Adderall? We simply do not know. Thus, while we can speculate that the TUE will improve Davis’s performance, we really do not have the evidence to do so.

But, other theories provide little help: (1) if his oblique injury that placed him on the DL in April-May 2014 lingered, one would expect that his power would have been sapped, but in fact, Davis’s 2014 batted ball distance exceeded his 2012 levels; (2) we do not know if Davis’s slow start lead to him overthinking, and being frozen at the plate as a result. Because no explanation stands out for why Davis’s strikeout numbers bucked his recent four year trend, I will take the optimistic view and project that Davis returns to an approximately 30% strikeout rate, which is in line with his 2010-2013 numbers.

BABIP

As Wee Willie Keeler used to say: “hit em where they ain’t,” and Davis seemed to be doing a decent job of that until last year. In 2011, 2012, and 2013, his BABIPs were as follows: .366, .335, .336, which were well above the league averages of .295-.297. In 2014, he had a BABIP of .242. Why?

Mike Podhorzer of Fangraphs wrote a nice piece on October 15, 2014 about how Chris Davis was “Swallowed by the Shift.” In that piece, he provides the following shift data on Davis:

These data show (1) that Davis is being shifted much more, (2) that the shift became increasingly effective, and (3) that his BABIP against no shift did not stand out as the reason for decline.

Given the shift’s success, there is no reason to expect defenses to shift against Davis less. Moreover, a troubling development in Davis’s batted ball tendencies, considering the shift, is that the percentage of balls he has pulled has increased each year from 2012 to 2014: 2012 (40%); 2013 (46.5%); 2014 (52%). Thus, he is facing the double whammy – he is being shifted more and hitting the ball in the direction of the shift more.

Nonetheless, there does appear to be a slight element of bad luck. The league average BABIP against the shift was .230 on grounders and soft liners in 2014. Given Davis’s decent fly ball and line drive rates, one would expect that his overall shift BABIP would exceed the league average for just grounders and soft liners. Further review may reveal why. While the flyball is not affected by the infield shift, even though defenses may be better positioned against the fly ball against Davis than they were previously, his 2014 flyball BABIP (.033) was well below his career rate (.160). Adjusting his fly ball BABIP to his career rate would have produced 7 additional hits. Unscientifically adding three additional hits, to account for bad groundball luck or a chance that his pull tendencies will revert closer to his career averages rather than continuing to increase, Davis would have had a 2014 BABIP of .285, which will serve as my projection for 2015.

Other Factors

POSITIVE

• Davis missed time in May and Sept/Oct in 2014, which historically have been Davis’s most productive times.
• Chris Davis’s walk rate has continued to improve for the past four years, from 5.2%, 6.6%, 10.7% to 11.4%.
• He is likely third base eligible, and he has been discussed as a possibility in the outfield this year.
• The lineup will likely be as good or better than in 2014, despite the loss of Nelson Cruz and likely regression of Steve Pearce, due to the expectation of more playing time from Wieters (26 games) and Machado (82 games), and expected improvement of Schoop (.598 OPS). 

NEGATIVE

• While 29 is not old, it is on the wrong side of the peak.
• Davis's 2013 breakout is not in line with his Orioles’ tenure: OPS of .827 (2012), .854 (2nd half 2013), and .704 (2014).

Reasonable Expectations for 2015

For Chris Davis in 2015, I project an 11% BB rate, 30% K rate, 41% FB rate, 23.5% HR/FB ratio, and a .285 BABIP. Over 650 plate appearances, these numbers would result in 72 BB, 195 K, 37 HR, 25 doubles, 74 singles, and a .235/.320/.471 triple-slash line. I also project a .791 OPS with 80 R and 100 RBI.

In any given season, there will be a lot of variance from the expectation. While it is not clear how much, I predict the following rough estimates for poor and good seasons:

Pessimistic: .217/.293/.442, .735 OPS with 32 HR and 65 R and 80 RBI.

Optimistic: .255/.340/.515, .855 OPS with 42 HR and 95 R and 120 RBI.

Thus, barring injury, Davis should be a good source of HR and RBI, and a decent source of runs, but will likely hurt in the batting average department. In OPS leagues, his walks should provide an added benefit.

Is Davis a 2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper?

These numbers likely do not make Davis a 1B sleeper, however, there are reasons he may be in certain leagues. First, if he is 3B eligible but league members do not realize that, he could be a 3B sleeper. Second, if people expect regression from the Orioles lineup, despite my prediction that the lineup will stay the same or improve, Davis could be undervalued. Third, there is a slight chance Davis could play the outfield again this year, which adds marginal value that others likely are not noticing. However, if people in the league are expecting a bounce-back close to the .286 hitter with 53 home runs, Davis likely is overvalued.