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Starting pitcher Chris Archer was dealt from the Rays to the Pirates ahead of the MLB trade deadline. Mo Castillo examines the impact on fantasy baseball owners for the rest of the 2018 season and how dynasty owners should react.
The Tampa Bay Rays were long rumored to be unloading their ace (former ace? *cough Blake Snell cough*), Chris Archer, and many thought he would land with a clear contender like the New York Yankees or the Atlanta Braves, since he’s a relatively young pitcher with elite stuff and a team-friendly contract. Then, as the trade deadline neared, surprise contenders the Pittsburgh Pirates — currently six games behind the Chicago Cubs for the National League Central lead — joined the fray.
Not many people expected the Pirates to be the team that finally landed him and yet, on deadline day, they pulled off a blockbuster by sending pitcher Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Austin Meadows, and a third player that still hasn’t been named for the 29-year-old Archer (that player is someone Rays brass said fans would know — do with that what you will *cough Jung Ho Kang cough*).
Sporting a 3-5 record and a 4.31 ERA to go along with 102 strikeouts, Archer will move from swampy Tampa Bay to the Steel City. But what does this interleague trade mean for Archer’s fantasy owners? Will joining the Bucs be the spark Archer’s owners have been looking for, or will a move to the NL Central prove disastrous? Below is a deeper look into the trade along with the impact it will have for Archer and the Rays in the short and long terms.
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What Does The Biggest Trade Of The Deadline Mean For Fantasy?
Rest of Season Value
Will Archer be good in the National League? Is a change in uniform all he needs to return to the form he had in 2012-2015? Let’s take a look at the facts. Archer is first and foremost moving from a pitcher’s ballpark to… another pitcher’s ballpark. PNC Park is in the bottom-10 of runs in regards to park factors, and while it’s not as offensively challenged as Tropicana Field, Archer won’t have to deal with designated hitters in the NL. Instead, he will enjoy the often free out that comes with opposing pitchers hitting in the nine-hole (though some teams employ the pitcher in the eighth spot of the lineup).
In the Pirates, Archer is moving to a team that will probably score more than his last one. The Pirates are currently 14th in the league in collective batting, while the Rays are 21st. Archer has also been pretty effective against the NL hitters he’s faced throughout his career. Of the 15 NL teams, six own a collective career batting average of over .250 against Archer. Unfortunately, two of those just happen to be the teams the Pirates are currently chasing: the Chicago Cubs (.267 against Archer) and the Milwaukee Brewers (.324 against Archer). He will have a few chances to rectify those numbers, as the Pirates will have series with both division rivals five more times this season (he won’t start in the Pirates’ series at Coors Field either, the bane of most pitchers’ existences).
He also doesn’t have to see the Boston Red Sox as often anymore; they’ve utterly dominated him throughout his career (2-12 record, 5.27 ERA against the Red Sox). All told, Archer owners should expect his strikeout and win totals for the remainder of this season to be better than they would have been with the Rays, as the Pirates will be motivated to try and catch up to the Cubs, or at least surpass the Brewers for second place.
Dynasty Value
Archer’s dynasty owners are now faced with a couple of “what-ifs.” While his value is slightly better in the National League for the rest of the season, he will now be in the competitive NL Central for another year. By the time July 2019 rolls around, the Pirates will undoubtedly elect to exercise Archer’s team option (the chances of declining it and letting him walk are slim to none) for 2020 and 2021. All of this, though, will depend on if the Pirates are contenders next year — they gave up Meadows and Glasnow but have some solid pieces to work with.
In 2019, Archer will have a full season to flex his muscles against designated-hitter-free NL Teams. As previously mentioned, he will also do it in yet another pitcher-friendly ballpark. That said, it should be noted that he’s been on a steady decline in run-stopping ability since 2015 and he’s allowed more home runs in his last three seasons (68) than in his first three (46). He’s also going to turn 30 before the 2018 season is over. All this makes Archer an intriguing trade candidate in dynasty leagues, due to the question marks surrounding his future. If you can fleece another team for ownership of Archer, you should definitely consider it.
What about the Rays?
The Rays are a pretty entertaining team to watch because — for the casual consumer — it almost seems like they’re competitive without having any big names on their roster and by implementing unorthodox strategies not seen that often throughout the league. In fact, after they traded Archer they didn’t have a starting pitcher in their rotation! That, of course, will change on August 5 when the newly-acquired Tyler Glasnow gets his first start in a Rays uniform. In return for Archer, the Rays received Glasnow, Meadows, and a third player who has been completely shrouded in mystery — typical Rays, right? Glasnow hasn’t been amazing, but Meadows has impressed in his brief time in the majors (.292 average in 154 at-bats). Combine those additions with the impressive youth the Rays have (a healthy Blake Snell, Jake Bauers, Tommy Pham) and the ones they have on the horizon (Brent Honeywell, Matthew Liberatore, whoever the heck that third player is from the Pirates), and Tampa Bay fans have a lot to look forward to in the future.
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