Small sample size has been a common refrain from fantasy baseball experts over the past few weeks, as one hot or cold game should not significantly change your outlook on a player.

The month of April is almost over now and, while it is still a small sample, a sixth of the season is almost in the books. It is time to cautiously consider year to date performance, in combination with preseason projections, in order to get an edge.

To that end, this week we look at a speedy Atlanta rookie, the AL co-player of the week, and an ace that has fallen on hard times. Shall we?

 

The Fantasy Baseball Jury Is Out

Mallex Smith (OF, ATL)

This dude can run. You've probably heard that already, but his minor league SB totals are eye popping. He swiped 57 bags in 70 attempts between Double-A and Triple-A last year, 92 in 118 attempts across three levels of the lower minors in 2014, and 64 in 80 at A ball in 2013. If Sonic the Hedgehog played baseball, this is what I would expect.

The question is whether Smith can reach base often enough to use that speed. He posted a solid triple slash line of .281/.339/.367 over 307 Triple-A PAs last season, but had the benefit of a .332 BABIP to do it. That BABIP was actually on the low end for Smith, as he posted a .412 mark in 240 Double-A PAs last year, .400 in 261 High A PAs in 2014, and .373 in 303 A level PAs, also in 2014.

Smith has no power at all, with just 13 HR across 1,878 professional PAs. This means that he probably specialized in hitting soft ground balls and reaching base before minor league defenders could react in order to put up passable offensive numbers. This approach can lead to plus BABIPs in the majors as well, but superior defensive skill, positioning, and experience mean that we are looking at .330 on the highest sustainable end. The .400 marks Smith has grown accustomed to will simply not be there, and the offensive production may dry up with them.

A high batting average on balls in play is useful only if you put balls in play, and Smith's 38.5% K% suggests he is completely overwhelmed by MLB pitching. The Braves agree, as they dropped him to eighth in the order in his two most recent games after starting him in the leadoff slot. The team's ability to provide any player counting stats is questionable, but hitting eighth for them could be the worst regular spot in all of baseball.

Smith does offer quality plate discipline, routinely posting double digit BB% numbers throughout the minor leagues. This may not help in the majors however, as any MLB pitcher can throw a strike if he really wants to. It might be very hittable, but Smith hasn't proven he can hit anything yet. Pitchers are challenging Smith with a 50.5% zone rate already, a number that could get higher with time. Last season, the MLB average zone rate was 45.3%, so it is pretty clear Smith is not being taken as a serious threat.

If you want to dedicate a roster spot to nothing but SB upside, Smith may be your guy. However, he hits for no power, no average, and couldn't possibly be in a worse lineup slot for counting stats. His MLB success rate on SBs is only 50% (2 for 4), so he may not even help there. There are better options in most formats.

Verdict: Chump

 
Mark Trumbo (1B/OF, BAL)

Don't look now, but Trumbo is slashing .386/.413/.750 with five dingers this year. It is almost entirely due to his last week, during which he hit all of the homers to split Player of the Week honors with Jose Altuve. This is what happens with such tiny samples.

He was actually pretty good last year too, slashing .262/.310/.449 with 22 bombs. He has proven to be a reliable power bat throughout his career, posting a FB% above 40% and a HR/FB around 14% in each of the previous two seasons. Moving to Camden Yards has benefited many a power hitter, and Trumbo should be no exception. He also hits fourth or fifth in a strong lineup every game, so the counting stats should be there as well.

The problem is Trumbo's batting average, which has a history of being less than stellar. His BABIP is challenged by an apparent allergy to line drives (16.7% career) and the FB% that sustains his power, as he consistently posts elevated IFFB% numbers. He got lucky with his batted balls in 2015, as both his grounders (.318) and flies (.232) crushed his career averages (.254 and .112, respectively). Normally, he can't sniff .260.

You would think that he is the kind of hitter that gets eaten alive by the shift, but he hit a ball into a shift just 24 times last year, according to the new shift data on FanGraphs. For comparison, Mark Teixeira hit into the shift well over 200 times last year. He also posted a .263 batting average against traditional shifts, so maybe he can beat them for whatever reason.

More promisingly, Trumbo is making a lot more contact this year as his current 79% Contact% would be a career best. It is also supported by a career best 11.2% SwStr% (13.9% career). Yes, it's early, but plate discipline metrics are the first advanced stats to mean something, stabilizing at around 50 PAs. Trumbo has 46, so he's almost there. The improvement also makes logical sense, as his O-Swing% stands at a sterling 29.9% rate. His career average is 39%, and swinging at fewer unhittable offerings figures to improve his Contact%.

Trumbo isn't walking at all with just a 2.2% BB% this year, but his improved eye and reputation as a power hitter will almost definitely increase that metric moving forward. He figures to give back some of the BABIP that made last year's .262 average possible, but may strikeout less often to make up for it. His home park and lineup are perfectly suited to his skill set, so he may be in line for a career year.

Verdict: Champ

 
Matt Harvey (SP, NYM)

Fantasy owners wanted an ace. So far, they have an 0-3 record and 5.71 ERA at an ace's price if they invested in Harvey. Nearly all of the luck metrics suggest Harvey has had awful luck to start this season, as he has a .328 BABIP against (.277 career) and a laughable 58.6% LOB% (77.4% career). The BABIP is rooted in an elevated LD% (22.8%), something Harvey has been good at suppressing throughout his career (19.7%). Both LD% and LOB% are known to randomly jump around, so if this was all that ailed Harvey his fantasy owners could probably weather the storm.

Sadly, there is another glaring problem: Where did the Ks go? A proven strikeout artist, Harvey boasts a K% of just 12% through three starts this year. His first game was against the Kansas City Royals, a team with a reputation for not striking out even if they are K-ing at a league average 21.1% clip this year. This has inspired some to give Harvey a pass. Since then, however, Harvey has pitched against the Phillies (25.6% K%) and Indians (26.1%), both of whom whiff frequently. Quality of opponent is not the issue here.

Maybe pitch selection? Compared to last season, Harvey is throwing fewer 2-seamers (14.9% to 7.2%) in favor of sliders (15.2% to 20.1%) and changeups (7.6% to 14.4%). The 2-seamer is the worst pitch in Harvey's repertoire by SwStr%, with a career rate of 5%. The slider (16.9%) and change (16%) are his best K offerings. If anything, he should be striking out more based on his pitch selection.

The problem seems to be in how he is using his pitches. The slider and change both sport an O-Swing% significantly higher than their career averages, 38.3% vs. 46.9% for the slider and 35.8% vs. 40.7% for the change. Harvey is actually losing total strikes, however, as his curve (34.6% zone%) and change (29%) are almost never in the strike zone after rates of 52.9% and 42%, respectively, last year. Harvey falls behind in the count with these offerings, and either walks the batter (9.3% BB% would be a three year worst) or throws something too hittable (53.5% overall zone%, 48.3% last year).

Harvey has lost some velocity compared to last season (95.2 mph last year to 94.3 this year), but velocity is down across the sport due to the colder weather and pitchers still getting into their routines. Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen attributes the problem to faulty pitching mechanics, an area I am in no way qualified to comment on. It is also possible that he is tipping his pitches or hiding an injury.

Harvey's season has been weird to this point, as he seems to be throwing too many strikes while also walking too many. If you own him, your investment in him is likely too great to cut him, and you can't trade him for value right now. I'm calling him a champ based on both his track record and wishful thinking as a Mets fan, but I really want to see old Harvey soon.

Verdict: Champ

 

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