X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Debate - Carlos Martinez vs. Chris Archer

Starting pitcher Carlos Martinez and Chris Archer are fantasy baseball draft options with similar ADPs that could provide different value in 2019. Chris Zolli examines each player to decide how to approach the position on draft day.

The NL Central figures to be one of the more competitive divisions in baseball this season. The Brewers are the returning runners-up in the NL, the Cubs are coming off of the most wins in baseball over the last four seasons, the Cardinals are retooling for another postseason run, and the Pirates and Reds made aggressive moves to make the division even better. Today, we will break down the potential aces of two NL Central teams- Chris Archer of the Pirates and Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals.

Both Archer and Martinez have similar ADPs coming into the season and each are coming off of disappointing 2018 seasons for different reasons. Archer will get a full season in the NL Central after a deadline deal from the Rays last July and Martinez will look to stay healthy enough to keep his role in the Cardinals rotation.

RotoBaller is going to break down all the pressing ADP questions you need to know before draft day.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Carlos Martinez– Looking To Regain Ace Form

(ADP 127 Overall)

Carlos Martinez is a two-time All-Star that has posted a sub-3.15 ERA in three of the last four seasons. He also had a 3.96 ERA in the second half of 2017 and did not start a game after July 30 of last season. Dealing with shoulder injuries at the end of 2018, the Cardinals (wisely) moved Martinez to the bullpen and then closer's role, a role that he thrived in (1.47 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings). With the addition of Andrew Miller and the emergence of Jordan Hicks, it is likely that Martinez will be right back at the top of the rotation for the Birds come April.

Before moving to the bullpen last season, Martinez was having more than an acceptable 2018 season as a starter, striking out 98 in 100 1/3 innings and posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His WHIP was a bit high in 2019, mainly because of an inflated walk rate; after walking 3.2 batters per nine over the last three seasons, Martinez walked 4.4 per nine as a starter last season. Just throwing 64% strikes over those 100 1/3 innings, Martinez's walk issues stunted some of his value. While his walks were bad, striking out nearly a batter per inning was a good sign, roughly maintaining his 9.5 strikeouts per nine in 2017.

When you look at batted ball data for Martinez, the most disappointing thing to see is that his hard hit ball rate has jumped in each of his six MLB seasons. A 37.8% hard hit ball rate in 2018 was very poor, leading to an xFIP of 4.42. Another issue is that his GB rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons, from 56.4% in 2016 down to 49.1% in 2018. In fact, this was the first time that Martinez had a GB rate lower than 50% in a full season since 2012 when he was in High-A. His swinging strike rate was over 10% once again in 2018 (10.4%) and his swing rate on pitches outside the zone was up from 28.8% to 31.5% YoY. As alluded to earlier, throwing just 45.5% of pitches inside the zone could be a recipe for danger, but a good swing rate on pitches outside the zone does show his deception.

Looking at the pitcher Martinez was from 2015-2017, there are a lot of reasons for optimism for 2019. Averaging a 3.24 ERA, 193 innings pitched, 192 strikeouts, and a 1.24 WHIP, Martinez would line up perfectly as a low-end SP2 or a top-tier SP3 in most leagues. There are a lot of reasons to worry about a shoulder injury and there is now news that he has to be shut down for two weeks. There has been recent talk about Martinez moving back to the bullpen, so monitor that situation before drafting the Dominican.

 

Chris Archer– New League, New Pitcher

(ADP 131 Overall)

Chris Archer has bounced around a bit in his career (the Indians and Cubs as a minor leaguer before playing 6+ seasons with the Rays), but now he has landed in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for fantasy owners (and the Pirates), Archer is coming off of the worst season of his career, where he posted a 4.31 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He also was under both 200 innings (148 1/3) and 200 strikeouts (162) for the first time since 2014. So the big question is if Archer's 2018 was just a bad one in terms of injury (abdominal injury in June) or if this is a sign of things to come.

There is one thing that fantasy owners know that they will get from Archer: strikeouts. Before last season, Archer was in the top three of strikeouts in the American League in each of the prior three seasons. He tallied 734 strikeouts in those three seasons and also was top-10 in innings pitched in each season as well. Durability and an ability to get strikeouts is a very good sign, but the fact that Archer's WHIP has risen in each season since 2015 is not. Even though Archer's 25.4% K rate is good, it was down from 29.2% in 2017 and was below his 27.9% career average. He is coming off of a season where he allowed more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his career and even his xBA was .249.

Looking at some advanced statistics, there are some reasons for optimism, even if the numbers are not great. Archer's 38.7% hard hit ball rate is not good in the least, but it is down in each of the last two seasons from 40.5% in 2016. His average exit velocity was not in the bottom 4% of the league like it was in 2017, but it did rise from 89 MPH to 89.2 MPH.

A lot of Archer's value comes from his ability to strike batters out, as he has never won more than 12 games and has only had a sub-3.25 ERA in two of his six full seasons. A move from the American League East should theoretically help, but the NL Central is far from a cakewalk itself. Look for 225+ strikeouts, a mid-3.00s ERA, and hope that he is able to induce softer contact to get his WHIP down.

 

Conclusion

In review, Archer and Martinez are two very similar pitchers, with Archer showing a bit better control and better strikeout potential. That being said, Archer has also never won more than 12 games and never had an ERA lower than 3.22. We detailed just how unlucky that Archer has been throughout his career, but he is also coming off of the worst season of his career.

All of this analysis may go directly down the drain if the Cards choose to put Martinez in the bullpen (or if he does not bounce back from injury), but, for now at least, the Cards ace is the safer pick. Not only is Martinez a safer choice as a pitcher (walk issues included), but he also plays for a Cardinals team that could approach 90 or more wins after a strong offseason. If Martinez is able to win around 15 games with an ERA in the 3.20s and a strikeout per inning, he will provide exceptional ROI around pick 130.

More Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF