X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 14

Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 14. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2018 fantasy baseball season.

We all suffer from recency bias, whether we realize it or not. It's easy in this day and age. Highlights and long-winded articles about who you should add, drop, or trade color our perception even more, but the numbers tell the true story. If any sport demands that we step back and take a macro view of things, it's baseball. 162 games define a season, but in the fantasy world, each day brings about change. While blasts from the past may not be as exciting as the recent rookie call-up or young starting pitcher who strings together a couple of quality starts, but in the long run they could prove more valuable.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should constantly pursue as a dedicated fantasy baseball manager. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

I will never advocate that you buy or sell a player if I wouldn't follow the same advice myself. Now, time to assess some fantasy values.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued Players - Week 14

Steve Pearce (1B/OF, BOS) 2% owned

Pearce's name has come up before, but mainly in Statcast-based articles because he's tearing the cover off the ball this year, whether you realize it or not. Recently acquired by the Red Sox, that alone is a boost to his value. If he plays against lefties in a platoon with Mitch Moreland, effectively taking over Hanley Ramirez's role, then he is definitely fantasy relevant. His slash line of .291/.349/.519 is good, but the fact he is second in the league in xSLG and 15th in Barrels shows how much better he could be with regular playing time. That won't happen without an injury, but owners in daily lineups that have the chance to play matchups should insert Pearce whenever possible.

Avisail Garcia (OF, CHW)  22% owned

Garcia is up to a nine-game hitting streak, modest as it may be. He's gone deep twice in the last week too, so it doesn't appear it will take him any longer to round into form. Garcia isn't a power play, but a guy who hit .330 last year and bats near the top of the lineup is worth a roster spot. Many are skeptical of last year's breakout because of an inflated .392 BABIP that suddenly surged and the relative lack of homers. Keep in mind that he's 27 years old and was a highly-regarded prospect out of Venezuela, so the breakout could have been very real. He's on another one-year contract, so despite the fact he's on a rebuilding team, he has plenty to prove an could potentially find himself in a better situation soon. Add him if you can, even in keeper leagues where he can be counted on for years to come.

Keon Broxton (OF, MIL) 4% owned

Ah, my favorite sleeper from last year that didn't pan out. Broxton made a statement that he wants to change all that with two homers, four RBI, and a stolen base in his third game since being recalled. He's always had a tantalizing power/speed skill set that he showed last year by going 20/21. He also hit a dead even .220 and struck out 37.8% of the time. It remains to be seen whether he can make major improvements in that area, but his upside is too good to ignore. He had strong walk rates in the double-digits at Double-A and Triple-A levels for a couple of years, so the biggest hope is that he is able to transfer those skills to the Brewers' lineup, even though he didn't last season. With Lorenzo Cain on the disabled list and Christian Yelich day-to-day, now's the time to take a chance.

Marcus Stroman (SP, TOR) 57% owned

My first flip of the year, Stroman was listed as overvalued by me way back in April, before it became obvious something was wrong with him. I mentioned on the Champions Analysis Podcast that he needed to hit the DL, even if it wasn't an apparent injury, just to recover his strength and get right mentally. If you cut bait then, congrats. Now it's time to take him back. Stroman was obviously not fully recovered from a shoulder issue that plagued him before the season began and needed an extended DL stint to get right. He looks like his old self again, allowing just two runs on five hits through seven frames on Friday night against the Tigers after going five scoreless in his first start back. Stroman's stock will stay depressed a bit longer while cautious owners wait to see if he's fully healthy, but his buy-low window won't be open much longer.

 

Overvalued Players - Week 14

Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) 67% owned

It's always a tricky proposition when it comes to dealing away a player who is blazing hot because you don't want to miss out on continued production if it comes. Players like Ozzie Albies and Jed Lowrie are still playing fairly well, but the home runs have predictably dried up for Albies while Lowrie's average is below .300 and his RBI total for May/June are still less than April alone. In Nimmo's case, he received an extra hype boost from the New York market, but he is also ready to plummet back to reality and it may already be happening. He hasn't homered since June 18 and is stuck in a 7-for-33 rut. I'm not worried about the pinky finger issue, but regression can sometimes be just as hurtful as an injury. Nimmo is a talented player, but plays for a team that is now in the cellar of the NL East after losing to the Marlins and falling below them in the wins column. Help isn't on the way, so Nimmo will be reliant on his own power to generate fantasy points. If you own him, it may be best to deal him for a player with a better supporting cast and track record, such as Matt Kemp or Shin-Soo Choo.

Rick Porcello (SP, BOS) 89% owned

A week ago, Porcello spun a gem against the Twins, tossing seven scoreless innings with just one hit allowed. I know because I was there. I can also tell you that Eddie Rosario was out that game, Miguel Sano was (is) toiling in the minors, and Byron Buxton is still on the DL. The Twins' lineup included Ryan LaMarre, Ehire Adrianza, and Bobby Wilson that day. Don't get me wrong, Porcello has been good all year, especially to start the season, but will remain a good, not great pitcher who is largely dependent on wins to propel his value. Porcello's 3.60 ERA is fully supported by a 3.80 SIERA, but that ranks 30th among all qualified starters and he strikes out less than a batter per inning. Some players delivering similar value that weren't drafted this season: Tyson Ross, Junior Guerra, Kyle Gibson. Porcello won't be viewed as an ace in any fantasy league, but his name recognition and ownership level will fetch you a better return than those other players who are still available off waivers in many leagues. Porcello owners could try acquiring a bat for him and then replacing those stats with one of the aforementioned SP options.

Hector Rondon (RP, HOU) 49% owned

He's the closer for the World Champs and he needs to be owned, but for how long? Rondon was unceremoniously stripped of the closer job for the Cubs following their championship season and found himself in an ideal situation behind Ken Giles this year. He's now posting the highest strikeout rate of his career at 31.2% and is holding a 1.50 ERA over 33 appearances. If you need saves, he's a great short-term add, but I'm wary about the second half. Last year it was Giles or bust in the bullpen and he delivered to the tune of 34 saves. In 2016, the Astros had three pitchers save between 12-15 games each. A.J. Hinch has shown that he'll mix and match closers at times, but while that has benefited Rondon this month, it could hurt him later on. Giles is just as likely to regain the role at some point as Rondon is to keep it. He hasn't been terrible, after all, posting a 3.23 xFIP. He technically doesn't have a blown save this season, melting down twice in non-save situations and otherwise pitching fairly well. There isn't much of a trade market for Rondon yet, but it could develop closer to the All-Star break. Either way, don't hang your hat on him as a reliable closer option.

 

More Risers and Fallers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59 At Corales Puntacana Championship
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For Second At Corales Puntacana Championship
Beau Hossler

Finishes Tied For 60 At Valero Texas Open
Doug Ghim

Finishes Tied For 18 At the Valero Texas Open
Jordan Spieth

Finishes Tied For 18 At RBC Heritage
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For Eighth At RBC Heritage
George Kirby

"Feeling Great", Could Throw Again On Sunday
Tyler Fitzgerald

Returning To Starting Nine
Josh Lowe

Progressing Well, Could Play In Rehab Games On Saturday
Shane McClanahan

Begins "Throwing-Like" Activities
Patrik Laine

Remains Day-To-Day
Gabriel Vilardi

On Track To Return Wednesday
Brandon Hagel

Ruled Out For Game 5
Marcus Johansson

Returns To Action Tuesday
Cole Ragans

Won't Start On Wednesday
Dylan Moore

Placed On 10-Day Injured List With Hip Inflammation
Jonas Siegenthaler

Considered A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Brett Pesce

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Back In Tuesday's Lineup
Frederik Andersen

Unavailable Tuesday
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech A Strong Candidate To Be An Immediate Starter
Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White Competing For Depth Role
New York Jets

Mason Taylor To Immediately Be Atop Jets Tight End Depth Chart
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Setting Up As Post-Hype Sleeper In 2025?
Denver Broncos

Dre Greenlaw Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold To Take Over 90% Of The Snaps
Tennessee Titans

Titans In No Rush To Trade Will Levis
Daulton Varsho

Reinstated From Injured List And Starting On Tuesday
Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Says He Knows He's Ready To Start For Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Dax Hill
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To J.K. Dobbins
Seattle Seahawks

Jaren Hall Cut Loose By Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Compare Josh Simmons To Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater
Denver Broncos

Pat Bryant Compared To Michael Thomas
Denver Broncos

RJ Harvey Could Do It All For Broncos
Carolina Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan Likely To Man The X Spot For Panthers
Green Bay Packers

Packers, Jaire Alexander Continue To Discuss Potential Reunion
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Discussed George Pickens With Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs To Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis
Washington Commanders

Matt Gays Signs One-Year Deal With Commanders
San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Signs Four-Year Extension With 49ers
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
Brandin Podziemski

Hits Six Treys During 26-Point Performance
Jimmy Butler III

Leads Warriors In Scoring Monday Night
Jarrett Allen

Has Double-Double, Six Steals In Blowout Win
Brandon Boston Jr.

Recovering From Ankle Surgery
Kelly Olynyk

Undergoes Heel Procedure
Aaron Nesmith

Probable For Tuesday's Action
Nathan MacKinnon

Has Two Points In Losing Effort
Martin Necas

Records Two Assists In Game 5 Loss
Mikko Rantanen

Tallies Three Points In Monday's Win
Wyatt Johnston

Leads Stars To Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Returns To Winning Ways
Anton Lundell

Earns Two Points Monday
Ryan Gerard

Going For A Texas Trifecta Of Sorts
Brandon Hagel

Departs Loss Early
Joe Highsmith

Hoping To Make More Putts In Texas
Eric Cole

Expecting Big Things In Texas
Brian Campbell

May Go Under The Radar At CJ Cup
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Brandon Nimmo

Has Career Game
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Tyler Glasnow

Going On The Injured List
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Luis Arraez

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Jordan Westburg

Placed On Injured List
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Luke Weaver

In Line To Get The Bulk Of Save Opportunities Moving Forward
Devin Williams

Removed From Closer Role
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Austin Hays

Smacks Two Homers On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF