Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - PGA Championship

K.H. Lee has now cemented his nickname as TPC Lee with back-to-back Byron Nelson victories at TPC Craig Ranch. He out-birdied Jordan Spieth who wowed his home crowd with Houdini-like scrambling efforts and near hole outs from the fairway to finish second, one shot off the lead. Birdies were flying and the leaderboard ended up with a lot of top-tier golfers on it.

Breaking $100 outrights were never really in the mix and as a result we are very eager to get into the PGA Championship!!! It is a major week and we are majorly excited about it. We will follow the same process with the same budget still in play, even though our hearts and inner degenerates want to throw a few more bucks at this awesome event.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

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Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Southern Hills, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,556, Greens: Bent, Designer: Perry Maxwell

We are keeping it simple. With this week being a major, we will see major nerves affecting even the most seasoned veterans. The best way to battle nervousness is with preparation and golfers with peaking irons and tidy short games should feel the most prepared this week.

Strokes gained off the tee will be the first of our second-tier criteria that we would like our golfers to excel at. Bogey avoidance is our only key scoring metric as we are expecting much higher scores as the course difficulty will be cranked all the way up to induce tough, major-like scoring conditions.

I guess we have a pretty cookie cutter check list with all four major strokes gained categories involved, but it is a major, and that demands exceptional play across all areas of the game.

In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:

• Model Rank
• SG: APP / L24
• SG: ARG / L24
• SG: OTT / L24
• SG: Putting on Bent L50
• SG: Putting L24
• Bogey avoidance

Outrights

This week we anticipate the cream rising to the top as it is a major, and therefore three of the four outrights we are investing in this week have won a major.

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $12.45 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Jordan Spieth ($6.55 @ +1800)

Jordan Spieth's last two starts have been a victory and a second place. It is safe to say that his game is peaking entering the week of the only major he has yet to place his magical hands on. After an underwhelming start to the 2022 season, Spieth has seemingly restocked his supply of magic beans at the perfect time.

His last 24 rounds on approach are a little skewed by an abysmal showing at the Masters, losing almost 3.5 strokes on approach and missing the cut. However, the three events on either side of that Masters meltdown have been sensational, gaining over five strokes on approach in each start. His driving stats this season are almost identical to his 2015 and 2016 numbers, which produced nine wins over that two year span.

Spieth has gained around the greens in most of his starts this season and will feel very comfortable in collection areas and bunkers that will give most of the field fits. His touch around the greens is magical, which he will need to lean on heavily around Southern Hills.

While most of Jordan's game has been running on magic bean puree, his putter has been leaking fart-flavored fluid all over the greens for most of the year. However, he gained over a stroke with the flatstick last week, which is barely enough to have us believing he has plugged the leak to let the rest of his game conquer the career grand slam with a thrilling victory at this year's PGA Championship.

• Model Rank: 13
• SG: APP / L24: 15 / 15
• SG: ARG / L24: 7 / 8
• SG: OTT / L24: 54 / 34
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 49
• SG: Putting L24: 137 (woof)
• Bogey avoidance: 30

Shane Lowry ($3.70 @ +3500)

Shane Lowry could quite possibly have three wins on the season, if it were not for "that one hole" with a monsoon at the Honda, a bamboo infused triple bogey at Augusta, and a dreaded chip into the water at the RBC Heritage. He has been playing fantastic golf and is looking for his first victory since his Open win in 2018.

Lowry is currently one of the premier iron players on tour, entering the week with only Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith, Russell Henley and Justin Thomas gaining more on approach over the last two dozen rounds. His baseline approach rank of 10th validates that he has required no Lucky Charms to get the ball on the green. Shane also enters the week as the 12th best driver of the ball which will not hurt his chances around Southern Hills. As if his ball striking was not impressive enough, Lowry can add a top-10 in recent strokes gained putting to his list of recent stunning stats.

Over the last 24 rounds, only Scottie Scheffler has gained more total strokes than Shane Lowry. The product of all these numbers and rankings has seen the Irishman place T3, T3, T12, T13, and 2nd in his five stroke-play starts since he touched US soil in February. If he can avoid monsoons, bamboo, and watery chips, his chance of winning the PGA Championship is far better than his odds would suggest.

• Model Rank: 12
• SG: APP / L24: 10 / 5
• SG: ARG / L24: 35 / 29
• SG: OTT / L24: 50 / 12
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 83
• SG: Putting L24: 8
• Bogey avoidance: 26

 

Keegan Bradley ($1.35 @ +9000)

Over his last 24 rounds Keegan Hansen Bradley has gained the sixth most total strokes in a field saturated with the world's very best golfers, yet he is 90 to 1 to win his second PGA Championship. Yes, his last win was way back at the BMW Championship in 2018, but he appears to be playing very similar golf now, as he did leading up to that win.

We were on Keegan for the Wells Fargo Championship, finishing a heart-breaking T2 to Max Homa. What we liked most about his game leading into the event was his putter, which is now no longer a crippling, black hole of lost strokes, but a crutch that has propelled him to four finishes T11 or better in his last five starts. Bradley also continues to gain steadily around the greens, as he has done for most of his career.

His ball-striking (approach + off the tee) has only lost him strokes once this year, missing his maiden cut at the Valspar. In "Freaky Friday" fashion, typically the best part of Bradley's game, his irons, are the only recent major statistic to fall outside of the top-20. If he can show up to Southern Hills striking his irons as crisply as he has for many, many years, the rest of his game is now more than capable of winning his second PGA Championship.

• Model Rank: 14
• SG: APP / L24: 8 / 44
• SG: ARG / L24: 28 / 19
• SG: OTT / L24: 21 / 18
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 116
• SG: Putting L24: 10
• Bogey avoidance: 41

Alex Noren ($0.85 @ +15000)

With no major top-5s on his resume, Alex Noren finds himself on our card at 150 to 1. Although he has yet to contend for a major, Noren has a T11, T22, and T17 in three of his last five major appearances, which is promising.

His approach play has been peaking lately, ranking 21st in the field over the last 24 rounds. And that's not all..." If Noren's stellar approach play was not enough to sell you on this ridiculously priced golfer, wait till we throw in his putting stats. He ranks FIRST in strokes gained putting on Bent grass L50 and seals the deal with recent putting that is 16th in the field. When a golfer who has been putting well on a variety of surfaces, heads to a type of grass that he is literally the best in the field on, we get very excited!!!

Alex has displayed very steady ball-striking, which means that if his putter decides to go nuclear on the greens this week, his tee-to-green game should be gaining enough strokes to prevent a tournament winning putting performance going to waste.

• Model Rank: 37
• SG: APP / L24: 102 / 21
• SG: ARG / L24: 37 / 54
• SG: OTT / L24: 103 / 52
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 1
• SG: Putting L24: 16
• Bogey avoidance: 24

 

First-Round Leaders

Ten events, zero first-round leaders. Admittedly, it is a little disappointing to know that even with a FRL win this week, we are still going to be losing money on this bet this year. However, golf betting is not for the faint of heart. We understand that golf is a volatile sport and there is no better way to get on the FRL board than with a major FRL!

*For the sake of the article, we typically try get it published early on a Tuesday to allow ample opportunity to jump at any respectable odds that may still be out there. First-round leaders can often fall victim to inclement weather, and with tee times being released after the article gets published, weather can impact FRL plays on the wrong end of a draw. If you feel the wind will affect the draw to the extent that sending a FRL out in that weather seems futile, feel free to swap that player out for someone who makes sense.

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12.55 on five guys to net $110 or more.

Jordan Spieth ($3.49 @ +3500)

Spieth is brimming with confidence and if his putter does not show up for the full tournament, if he can putt lights-out on Thursday at least, he should have no problem sitting atop the leaderboard after round one.

Cameron Smith ($3.05 @ +4000)

Cameron Smith's driver hits too many snap hooks to feel comfortable betting him outright. The newly revived creek system at Southern Hills is the sole reason why Cameron Smith never made the outright card. Under pressure his driver gets very errant and with creeks running through most of the course, Smith's miraculous recovery shots may prove to be outmatched if he is grabbing a fresh Pro V out of his bag to do so.

We do trust him to go out there and win the first round, though. He leads the field in birdies and when he swings freely with his driver it is an absolute asset to his game, as it flies long and straight. This bet seems the best way to get the most value out of Cam Smith this week.

• Model Rank: 5
• SG: APP / L24: 20 / 2
• SG: ARG / L24: 20 / 20
• SG: OTT / L24: 117 / 121
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 9
• SG: Putting L24: 6
• Bogey avoidance: 10

Patrick Cantlay ($3.05 @ +4000)

Patrick Cantlay is just behind Alex Noren in strokes gained putting on Bent grass. After a rough patch with his irons, "Patty Ice" is back to striking his approaches at an elite level since Augusta. Astounding approach play and prodigious putting on Bent grass is the perfect combination to snag a FRL.

• Model Rank: 4
• SG: APP / L24: 30 / 31
• SG: ARG / L24: 4 / 16
• SG: OTT / L24: 13 / 21
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 3
• SG: Putting L24: 65
• Bogey avoidance: 2

Keegan Bradley ($1.74 @ +7000)

If he has one magical putting performance, let it be Thursday please!

Alex Noren ($1.22 @ +10000)

If the golf gambling gods are still listening, if Noren has one magical putting performance, let it be Thursday please!

 

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Placings

We have $75 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $70 on five T20s and four T40s. Odds range from -110 to +320 so three or four of the nine guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit, depending on who cashes.

BetMGM will be our book of choice for most of these bets as their odds are the best and they pay ties in full. Our threshold to ditch BetMGM's ties paid in full for other books is 30 points (BetMGM +110 < DK +150, BetMGM +110 > DK +130)

Collin Morikawa (T20: $11 @ -110 on BetMGM, -115 on DK)

Collin Morikawa is one of the most consistent and accurate ball strikers on tour. His lack of elite touch around the greens typically is minimized at majors as Collin seems to find another gear in that department of his game. We get ties paid in full for a T20 on a golfer who has won two majors and finished top-20 in his last five major starts.

• Model Rank: 3
• SG: APP / L24: 1 / 12
• SG: ARG / L24: 109 / 97
• SG: OTT / L24: 16 / 15
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 86
• SG: Putting L24: 64
• Bogey avoidance: 12

Patrick Cantlay (T20: $11 @ -110 on BetMGM, -115 on DK)

With a slightly different skill composition to Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay finds himself ranked one spot lower than Collin. Cantlay is not the ball striking machine like Morikawa, but he has a much tidier short game that often can be relied upon to save par. At a tough course like this, if you are not an elite iron player, we want scramblers and Cantlay can scramble. Cantlay has two top-20s in his last five majors, but is currently playing some of his best golf heading into a major that he believes he can win.

Cameron Smith (T20: $10 @ +100 on BetMGM, +120 on DK)

Cam Smith is looking for his first PGA Championship T20 and enters the week striking the ball better than he ever has...with his irons, of course. His driver is a major liability at times and this bet hinges solely on his accuracy off the tee this week. The rest of his game is in incredible condition.

Daniel Berger (T20: $6 @ +190 on BetMGM, +170 on DK)

Daniel Berger ranks fifth in the field in scrambling and has the accuracy off the tee to presumably keep himself out of trouble for the most part. His recent form is not where we would like it, but he bounced back nicely on the ball-striking front at Harbour Town, finishing T21 while flipping our T20 ticket the bird. Hopefully he can pair up his ball-striking consistency with his incredible scrambling ability.

• Model Rank: 10
• SG: APP / L24: 6 / 40
• SG: ARG / L24: 22 / 37
• SG: OTT / L24: 30 / 64
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 43
• SG: Putting L24: 34
• Bogey avoidance: 4

Keegan Bradley (T20: $5 @ +320 on FD, +250 on BetMGM)

We love Bradley this week and his four top-20s in his last five stroke-play starts is hopefully a trend he can continue.

Seamus Power (T40: $7 @ +140 on BetMGM, +120 on DK)

Seamus Power is becoming a staple of our placement betting card, finding himself on it for the third time in as many weeks. His ball striking is lacking at the moment but he is still capable of finding the bottom of the cup for par on a regular basis, which is exactly what is needed here.

• Model Rank: 16
• SG: APP / L24: 49 / 136
• SG: ARG / L24: 15 / 115
• SG: OTT / L24: 63 / 38
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 16
• SG: Putting L24: 14
• Bogey avoidance: 3

Chris Kirk (T40: $6 @ +190 on BetMGM, +180 on DK)

Chirs Kirk is a repetitive ball-striking zombie, getting his ball in the fairway off the tee and on the green in regulation with minimal effort. From there, his putter is woefully bad, but he does putt much better on Bent grass which is exciting. His dependable ball striking and tidy around the green game combine for the sixth-best bogey avoidance in the field.

• Model Rank: 21
• SG: APP / L24: 37 / 33
• SG: ARG / L24: 6 / 9
• SG: OTT / L24: 40 / 25
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 67
• SG: Putting L24: 117
• Bogey avoidance: 6

Cameron Tringale (T40: $6 @ +175 on BetMGM, +140 on DK)

Cameron Tringale is the seventh-best bogey avoider in the field and does so courtesy of a complete golf game. He lost 10 strokes in four rounds off the tee at The Players and Arnold Palmer Invitational. Outside of those two nightmares, his off the tee game, which is the weakest area of his game, has actually been much better. His approach play has been sensational all year and he putts really well on bent surfaces.

• Model Rank: 27
• SG: APP / L24: 25 / 17
• SG: ARG / L24: 32 / 94
• SG: OTT / L24: 114 / 144
• SG: Putting on Bent L50: 5
• SG: Putting L24: 110
• Bogey avoidance: 7

Alex Noren (T40: $10 @ +125 on BetMGM, +140 on DK)

We will take the lesser odds as we get ties paid in full for only 15 points less. Noren has been discussed a bunch in this article and this is one of my favorite bets on the card.

The Farewell Fiver

Harry Higgs (T20: $5 @ +1100 on BetMGM - ties paid in full)

Harry Higgs misses more cuts than he does salads, but when it comes to majors, "Big Beautiful" gets down to business. In the two majors he has played in so far, Harry has finished T14 and T4, embracing the big moment like a nonchalant ninja. This would be an awesome ticket to cash and if history repeats itself, it just may.

Byron Nelson Recap:

• Outright: -$11.81
• FRL: -$11.65
• Placings: -$24.50
• Farewell Fiver(s): $12.50
• Total: -$35.46
• Season Total: +$51.29

Last week was rough. We had two guys finish T17 only to have their odds chopped into quarters. Joaquin Nieman entered the final round in solo third and missed the top-20 entirely, losing 5 strokes to the field on Sunday. Just brutal beats. However, we are STILL up on the season and another big week is around the corner.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

 

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