RADIO
Looking back at the Mexico Open, the golf betting market continues to reward those brave enough to put all their eggs in one basket and tempt fate with sub 10-1 outright selections. Rahm at the Masters and Tony Finau last week were both examples of this. The odds makers most certainly adore these kinds of results as not many people can stomach betting a single golfer at 8-1 to beat 140+ other professionals. Yet, here we are talking about how it has now become an enraging reality.
This week's odds board can only be described as pathetically putrid. FOURTEEN (14) golfers are priced below 25-1 in a field that has a 7-1 favorite in the form of Rory McIlroy. We are getting squeezed by the bookies and its putting us into a fight or flight situation. The overall value available to bettors looking to throw three or four value plays onto their card is simply just not possible this week, putting us into flight mode and forcing us to limit our exposure in the outright market. Don't worry, we still have 3 outrights this week.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Outrights
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Cameron Young ($6 @ +2500 on BetRivers)
Cameron Young is one of the 14 dudes to find himself priced below 25-1 as the odds board currently stands (20-1) and he is going to be the only "favorite" that we roll out this week. There is a lot to like about Cam's game on any course, but this week, on a long, tough, major-like track, we like his chances even more. Imagine being one of the strongest body builders in the gym and only getting a few elastic bands to complete your workout with - that's most likely how Young felt at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago, having to shelf his power on the majority of the holes around a tight, tricky track.
This week, our roided rockstar gets to regularly rip driver that ranks third in distance and fourth in strokes gained off the tee (OTT). If we filter strokes gained on courses longer than 7,400 yards, Young leads the field OTT in that department heading to a 7,500-yard Quail Hollow Club that plays as a par 71. On approach from the fairway, he ranks 12th and 7th in strokes gained from 150-200 and 200+ respectively, where roughly three quarters of approach shots will be played from. Cam Young is simply going to be a ball-striking bully on the Quail Hollow playground.
Young continues to rock out from 5-15 feet on the putting surface, ranking 11th in the field on Bermuda greens from that range. His putting has also seen a massive improvement over the last 12 rounds, gaining just shy of a quarter stroke per round, which is laughably better than the -0.63 he was losing this year before THE PLAYERS Championship. His around the green play is his achilles heel, losing -0.2 strokes to the field this year so far. With Paul Tesori (Webb Simpson's old caddie) now on the bag, the hope is for that area of his game to see an improvement while he head bangs his way to his first PGA Tour victory.
Cameron Champ ($0.5 @ +40000 on BetRivers)
After updating the model to include Mexico Open stats, Cameron Champ scooted by Cameron Young (which is why the tweet above doesn't match the write up). Cameron Champ is an exceptionally long hitter of the ball and ranks second in driving distance with a baseline OTT ranking of 31st. Champ is also one of the better long iron players in the field, ranking 17th in strokes gained from 200+ yards in the fairway. Unfortunately, there are no other key metrics that rank inside the top-60 for Champ, which is why he is 400-1. But, with a little short game luck and some sizzling six irons, who knows where this bet could take us.
MJ Daffue ($0.5 @ +40000 on BetRivers)
Not quite in the same ballpark as the two Cams, but as the 23rd longest driver of the ball in the field, MJ Daffue is still trying to find his feet on the PGA Tour. Since the Valspar, Daffue has gained 8 strokes putting in 10 rounds (+0.8 per round) which includes his worst putting performance of the year at the Mexico Open (-3.36 in round 1). He has a respectable ball striking repertoire, averaging +0.72 ball striking per round since the Honda Classic. He also ranks 31st in strokes gained from 150+ in the rough which will be important as fairways are hit 8% less around Quail (54% of the time). At 400-1 he is somebody who is looking for his 4th Top-25 finish in five starts and could surprise a lot of people if his putter continues to cook.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings
Two top-20 bets and three top-40 bets (two maniac overrides).
$10 Sungjae Im T20 +130 on FanDuel/DraftKings
Grading out 4th in the model and with a 64% T20 rate in 2023, +130 is a reasonable number to get behind the first of two South Koreans in the T20 market.
$10 Tom Kim T20 +270 on FanDuel
As the 12th ranked golfer in the model and with a 33% T20 rate, +270 was enough of an odds boost to get us to bet Tom Kim at a course he shone bright at when playing the Presidents Cup last year.
$10 J.T. Poston T40 +150 on DK
Poston grades out as the 23rd best golfer in my model, largely due to his steady play and exceptional Par 5 scoring. He has T40s in 5 of his last 10 starts and is +150 to do so again.
$10 Sam Ryder T40 +250 on FD (Maniac Override 777)
Ryder is the best putter in the field and is 17th in strokes gained from 150-200 in the fairway and 37th in strokes gained from +150 in the rough. Again, he is the best putter in the field and has 5 top-40 finishes in 2023, yet finds himself at +250 for a T40.
$10 MJ Daffue T40 +335 on BetRivers (Maniac Override 777)
With three top-25 finishes in his last four starts, this T40 number was too good to pass up on one of our outrights.
Matchups
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.
$21 Adam Hadwin over Beau Hossler -105 (Circa)
Over the last 24 rounds Beau has played slightly better than Adam, but if we look at their baseline stats, Hadwin has Beau massively outmatched in the ball striking department. This is a ball striker's course and despite Hossler having a distance advantage over Hadwin, Adam still has him beat off the tee. On approach, Hadwin is middle of the pack, while Hossler sits close to last in strokes gained from the fairway 150+ yards out. They have very similar short game profiles which is why I left that out of the screenshot.
The Farewell Fiver
Sahith Theegala Top 10 +450: $5
Finishing inside the top 10 in 4 of his last 9 starts, Sahith gets slapped with a +450 price tag to do so once more. His long iron play ranks 10th in the field and is 16th in strokes gained from 150+ in the rough. His short game has been sensational lately and at a tough course like this he will need to lean on that again. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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