RADIO
The Masters is now in our rear-view mirror and so are the fond memories we treasured supporting some of our favorite LIV players who we have not had a chance to cheer on in a PGA Tour event for quite some time. Unfortunately, Cam Smith never quite played to the level we have grown accustomed to at Augusta, while Phil Mickelson played like he was the mullet magician, finishing T2 alongside Brooks Koepka. An utterly bizarre outcome.
Jon Rahm reminds me of an ATV, just cruising through any terrain and weather conditions with the ease of a now two-time major champion. He survived the horrible weather wave and won by four shots. Imagine he played in the nice weather wave? As much as I want to dislike the man for his grumpy on course demeanor and ridiculously lucky breaks, there was nobody more deserving of slipping on that esteemed emerald coat that so many of the game's greats have also awkwardly shoved their arms into in Butler Cabin. He truly is establishing himself as one of the greatest golfers of the 2020-present era.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights
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Last week we had Cameron Young finish T7 and Collin Morikawa T10, with neither really ever threatening to make more noise than a T10. Max Homa continues his dance with despair around Augusta, recording a 78 in his final round to end another frustrating week at the Masters for the world No. 5. Cam Smith just didn't have it and not even his crisp course history could salvage the week, recording his first finish outside the top-10 in his last four Masters.
This week we have three golfers that have a very common theme - exceptional course history. We are spending $15 of our $100 budget on outrights this week, giving us roughly 9 events to try and break even. If you are new to this article, we have been off to a rather slow start in this section of the article, but a winner is around the Carolina corner.
Patrick Cantlay ($8.90 @ +1500 on FanDuel)
Will his pace of play be an issue this week? Short answer: No. There are two reasons for this as he mentioned in his presser that him an Hovland were waiting on every hole, just like everybody else. Secondly, he is far more comfortable around H Town than he is around Augusta National, and with the course playing a lot easier than Augusta, he should spend far less time in between shots this week.
The methodology for going this short in the outright market, is justified, in my opinion, by his track record at Harbour Town, finishing 2nd, MC, T3, T7, T3 in his last five very slow walks around the RBC Heritage venue. Harbour Town has one of the highest predictive correlations based off past success and nobody in the field has a better strokes-gained average over the last five years than Patty Ice.
If you want more signs of success to come, well, in Cantlay's most recent five starts he has finished T14, T9, T19, T4, and 3rd. His best putting performance over that stretch was his 3rd place finish at the Genesis Invitational, where he gained a measly 1.2 strokes putting. He has been sensational from tee-to-green (2nd in field), with his frigid putter embracing his nick name a little too literally.
Cantlay's tee to green performance over the last L24 rounds has him ranked as the second-best ball striker in this field of studs (minus Rory and Willy Z) with only the footloose ball striking factory that is Scottie Scheffler (+850) ahead of him. The only thing standing between Cantlay and a South Carolina crown is his putter, which is likely to show up any minute now.
Cameron Young ($4.73 @ +2800 on BetRivers)
Cameron Young has some of the most precise power on tour. He struggled mightily in the wet conditions last week, with those few holes ultimately costing him a shot at the green jacket. He played tremendous golf when he was sure his club was not going to slip out his hand when hitting 330-yard nukes off the tee. That kind of distance won't necessarily be needed here, but he is still a great fit for Harbour Town.
When looking at Young's maiden performance last year, he opened his week with an 8-under 63 and an eventual T3 by week's end. He did this as a rookie, which a lot of people have erased from their memory largely due to his incredible year that ultimately saw him claiming the rookie of the year award. He has TEN top-3 finishes worldwide since becoming a PGA Tour professional and is the 13th ranked golfer in the world.
We will be typing the rest of this piece with a nose covered in "peanut butter" after gushing over our second outright on our card. The sky is the limit for Cam, and once he wins his first event, WATCH. OUT. He just needs to have the confidence that he can win a tournament and then we could see him start edging his way towards a BIG 4 company after two or three wins. He is that talented!
From a statistical perspective, Young has the length to control his long irons off the tee, where others will be hitting woods. He also has the iron play designed for success around H Town, gaining the 8th most strokes on tour from 150-200 yards, which we will make up 46% of approach shots here. If we want to shove our nose back into the jar of peanut butter, he actually leads the field in proximity per shot from this range, with 25 feet being his average birdie putt. I hope you are starting to get as excited about him as I am.
Somebody get me another jar, because we are about discuss the impact his newly acquired caddie is going to have on his game and around this course in particular. Young now has Webb Simpson's former bag-man alongside him for the foreseeable future, who has intricate knowledge of Harbour Town, winning with Webb in 2020. Add that naughty nuanced knowledge to an already stellar track record around this course, and we have yet another perfect storm.
Finally, Young's putting has seen a massive improvement since the PLAYERS, having gained +0.6 strokes putting over the last 8 rounds of stroke play golf (he was phenomenal on the greens at match play too). Prior to this turn around in putting performance, he has lost an average of -0.6 strokes on the greens in his 18 rounds prior to the PLAYERS. Every aspect of his game is climaxing, and I may be too if he lands up winning this week!
J.T. Poston ($1.38 @ +10000 on BetRivers)
At 100-1 we are getting a J.T. Poston that has delivered performances of T3, MC, T8 and T6 in his quartet of starts at H Town so far. He has done the majority of his scoring on and around the greens, gaining chipping and putting in all four starts. In fact, the only area of his game that has not gained in every start here, is his approach play, which is now his strongest part of his game.
Poston is averaging +0.92 strokes on approach per round over his last 10 rounds dating back to the PLAYERS. If we want a bigger sample size, this calendar year he is averaging just shy of half a stroke on approach per round (+0.43). If you add this kind of iron play to an equation that has already spat out three top-10 finishes at Harbour Town with substandard approach numbers, imagine the possibilities.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings
Last week's results: -$1 which was rather disappointing as Cam Smith and Max both mailed it in for their final round. A loss of $1 is palatable and looking back at these bets, we probably should have bet them as T10s, as Collin and Young finished T10 and T7 respectively. Willy Z requiring season ending surgery the week of the Masters is truly a shame for one of the tour's true Big Game Hunters (get better soon buddy).
- Max Homa $10.50 T20 -105: +$10
- Cameron Young $10 T20 +110: $10.50
- Cam Smith $10.50 T20 -105: -$10.50
- Collin Morikawa $11 T20 -110: -$11
- Will Zalatoris $10 T20 +130: VOID
This week we are back to rolling out a solid combination of top 20 and top 40 bets. The model is suggesting we bet Justin Thomas, but his starts this year have been MC, T10, T60, T21, T20, 4th, T25, T25, with only two non-dead-heat top-20 in his last 8 starts. He is the only golfer the model kicked out that we wont be betting, with two (777) maniac plays added in the mix.
All $7.50 bets ($68 total).:
- Tony Finau T20 +145
- Xander Schauffele T20 +135
- Max Homa T20 +160 (maniac play)
- Tom Hoge T20 +320
- Tommy Fleetwood T40 +100
- Adam Svensson T40 +220
- Cameron Davis T40 +230
- Ben Griffin T40 +220
- Sam Ryder T40 +190 (maniac play)
Matchups
Thomas Detry over Lucas Herbert $12 @ -118 on FanDuel
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. I think that the market is overreacting to one HORRIFIC round from Detry at the Valero two weeks ago.
He lost close to 11 strokes shooting 83. He bounced back with a 73 in R4 so I don't think he is injured. Golfers are human and they could very well could have had a fight with their spouse the morning of, resulting in one of the worst rounds of Detry's professional career. #OneOfUs
As you can see above, Detry has been playing pretty solid for the most part, losing -4.22 strokes around the greens is not what we typically see from the big Belgian. If you look at his L24 numbers below, his ARG is about as bad as Herberts, who did not have a "Detry detonation" in any of his last 24 rounds. This is a great example of why looking at round by round metrics can help lead to an edge in golf betting.
Now, this bet could very well be a loser, but Detry's long term baseline is far superior to Herberts OTT, APP, and ARG, with Herbert being a very solid putter.
The Farewell Fiver
Webb Simpson Top 10 +900: $5
Last week we did 88 bets for the Farewell Fiver and had a great time cheering for the ACEs that unfortunately never arrived (I blame the wet conditions as balls tend roll less when the greens are soft). This week, we are going to bet on Webb, who has gained strokes putting in 8 consecutive rounds, gained strokes in all four areas at the Valspar and now heads to Harbour Town where he has finished T59, T9, WIN, T16, T5, and T11. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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