RADIO
Rory McIlroy is World No. 1 and the way he is driving the ball is simply unfair for everybody else in the field, including John Rahm. Rory lead the field in strokes gained off the tee, with now former No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, the second-best driver of the ball. In what seems like a parallel universe, Scottie lost seven strokes on and around the greens while attempting the keep his crown as king of the golf world. Unfortunately, he leaves his post in a similar manner to the king in House of The Dragon (spoiler: It was not pretty).
It is truly remarkable how Scottie has struggled while still maintaining an incredible level of ball striking. I would love to see him back in contention again as he is really fun to watch win golf tournaments. However, Rory claiming the throne in the midst of a civil-war type battle with LIV, brings with it a sense of ease knowing that the tour's most polarizing player is back where he shone brightest for the very first time a decade ago, as World No. 1.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Course Breakdown and Key Stats
Port Royal Golf Club: Par: 71, Yardage: 6,828, Greens: Bermuda
We head to Port Royal Golf Club for the fourth time since this event has been played here and as this field is littered with KFT players, we have turned our model into a relic again, focusing on stats that can overlap with KFT data. Scrambling, good drives gained, putting average, GIR%, and scoring metrics can be used to compare apples with apples.
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. Last week, we were not in even in the same state as the ballpark we wanted to be at. However, we are going to go with the "engage eight" blitz of randomly priced winners, hoping one of them can get through the Bermuda gauntlet of weather victorious. We are betting $13.39 to net $110 or more.
Nick Hardy ($3.43 @ +3500 on DraftKings)
There are not many golfers who are capable of gaining strokes on approach for 12 consecutive rounds. Nick Hardy is currently doing that. Not only is he doing it, but he is doing it at an incredibly high level. Hardy's worst round on approach over this 12-round stretch is +0.49, which is simply impressive. The rest of Hardy's game is here and there, but if he can control his ball in the wind, stellar approach play like this is all we need to bite at 35-1. Hardy is making the game of golf look easy.
Stephen Jaeger ($3.46 @ +3700 on BetRivers)
Stephen Jaeger is an intriguing play, as he has finished no worse than T44 and no better than T30 in his four consecutive starts this season. Of those 16 rounds, 12 of them average +1.59 strokes gained per round, while the four ugly ducklings, which show up once an event, have dragged his score down by -2.7 strokes per round. If he can avoid his weekly disastrous round, Jaeger has the ability to play well enough to win golf tournaments.
Robby Shelton ($2.21 @ +5500 on BetRivers)
Robby Shelton gets his first opportunity to show us what he is really capable of, on a course that suits his game really well. He is not the longest off the tee, but he is accurate and is an exceptional putter. At a course that rewards either accuracy or length off the tee, Shelton will be approaching the green from the fairway more often than the majority of the field. He has won at the KFT level and should be comfortable in a field of this quality. Let's shake and bake, Bobby!
Nick Taylor ($1.74 @ +7000 on Caesars)
Nick Taylor has begun the new season averaging +0.6 strokes on approach in his 10 rounds so far, finishing T6 and T19 in his two made cuts. His putter rebelled at the Shriners and lost -2.6 on the greens on the way to his first missed cut of the season. He typically struggles off the tee due to a combination of inaccurate, shorter drives, but is above average when it comes to getting the ball in the hole from around the greens. It looks like Nick put in some really hard work over the break and hopefully we can capitalize on that before the books adjust their stance on him.
Doug Ghim ($1.26 @ +8000 on Caesars)
There is really nothing statistically significant about Doug Ghim's game that has us believing he will win this week. This is more of a maniac, gut play, as I feel the Ghim Reaper excels on shorter, windier courses like TPC Sawgrass where he finished T6 in some really inclement weather. His lack of distance should not hurt him as much here, while he can scramble well and knock his mid irons close when he feels like it. When betting on golf in the Bermuda Triangle, our money feels safe with the Ghim Reaper!
($0.82 @ +15000 on DraftKings)
Originally opening at 200-1 Brian Gay is still 150-1 to win a golf tournament where he has finished T3, FIRST, and T12 in the only three opportunities he has had to play at this venue. He has been knocking on the door of victory on the champions tour recently and should enter the week with a game as smooth as molasses.
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Placings
After preaching patience in the fall swing, we thought we had a beat on the CJ Cup with all the regular superstars back in contention. Turns out the only beat we had, was the one where BetMGM sent our bankroll to the ER, going 0-6 in the placement market last week. Yikes.
Max Homa showed up with a stiff back, barely able to pick his ball out of the hole in R1. Shane Lowry broke his putter in R1 and then pulled the Irish ejector lever to send him and Seamus spiraling down the leaderboard on Sunday after spending the entire week inside their respective placement. Scott Stallings and Sepp Straka continue to have got us unnecessarily excited with their flurry of form recently, both finishing towards the bottom of the leaderboard. Rickie Fowler lost 6 strokes putting - worst in the field.
- Max Homa (T20: $11 @ -110 on BetMGm) -$11
- Shane Lowry (T20: $10 @ +110 on BetMGM) -$10
- Rickie Fowler (T20: $10 @ +175 on BetMGM) -$10
- Scott Stallings (T30: $10 @ +100 on BetMGM) -$10
- Sepp Straka (T30: $10 @ +100 on BetMGM) -$10
- Seamus Power (T30: $10 @ +120 on BetMGM) -$10
Needless to say, in a field full of Korn Ferry graduates, Champions Tour players, and anticipated cyclones, we are going to give this section of the article a skip as our bankroll has been put into a full body cast.
Matchups
I love these bets so much because outside of the juice you pay on the betting odds, you are not really betting against the book, but instead, betting against the opponent in the matchup, making this the safest of golf bets, in my opinion.
Let me explain why this is such a safe and profitable bet. If you place a T20 bet and that player withdraws, you lose. Similarly, if you place a matchup bet and he withdraws, you lose. BUT, if you place a matchup bet and your opponent withdraws, YOU WIN! The fairest of golf betting playing fields. It also provides you with opportunities to fade players you feel are overpriced, by placing bets against them in matchups with a player we think has a significant edge over "Mr. Overrated."
Last weeks matchup:
- Tom Hoge o Andrew Putnam: $10 @ -120 on DraftKings: +$8.33. We won a bet! Hoge's ball striking managed to keep him ahead of Putnam all week.
This week's matchup:
- Nick Hardy o Alex Smalley: $10 @ +100 on DraftKings
Hardy has returned to the new season with renewed ball striking sass, while Smalley has been rather uninspiring from that standpoint. They have gained similarly from a total strokes gained standpoint, but Hardy's game seems much more sustainable as the majority of his strokes have come from incredible iron play in 12 straight rounds. Smalley is going to have to keep the putter hot if he wants DraftKings to take our money against him.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
(T20: $5 @ +450 on DraftKings)
T3, WIN, T12 in his last three appearances here. If that is not a horse for the course stat line, I am not sure what is. We get +450 to place inside the top-20, which is something he has done 100% of the time in his 12 rounds at Port Royal Golf Club. We feel good about this one.
We are still not spending our entire bankroll ($100 per week) until we find some level of comfort with the model in full field events and bigger KFT sample sizes.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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