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Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! After a (much-needed) family vacation last week, it is great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! Before we dive into the Week 7 DraftKings slate, I'd like to give a huge shoutout of thanks to my good friend Thunder Dan Palyo for covering this article last week! Dan is not only one of the guys that I respect most in the fantasy industry, but also a friend and all-around awesome guy. If you aren't reading his NFL DFS Cheat Sheet here at RotoBaller every week (Sign up for RB NFL Premium now using Promo Code: ThunderDan), you are literally costing yourself money.
While I was away with the family last week, I wasn't completely unplugged from the DFS world in Week 6 (Don't tell my wife!) and it shaped up to be a really unique slate with sooo much value available at the RB position. As we head into Week 7, that value appears to have evaporated, as this slate currently appears to be rather straightforward and without the plethora of injuries that came with last week. We are once again dealing with some bye weeks, as well as ever-tightening DK pricing. Remember...this article isn't simply about identifying "good" plays. Our job is to dig through this salary scale and unearth players that can provide us with tournament-winning types of scores. Let's get to work!
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 7. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 7 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: When we take a macro view of the Week 7 Main Slate and boil it down, we come up with a picture that illustrates a handful of great offenses in really great spots and some bad offenses in really bad spots, with the majority of this slate's options falling into the "mediocre, could-go-either-way" category. It all adds up to terrific high-priced options, decent mid-tier plays, and very little (viable) value. I think our tendency sometimes as DFS players in this situation is to grind our research really hard in an attempt to find a play that everyone else is overlooking (good), only to come away with no clear answers and roster a middling or super-cheap option anyway (bad). It might sound simplistic to say we want to target QBs with slate-breaking upside in premium matchups, but that's how I'll attack this slate, at least to the extent that salary allows.
Patrick Mahomes - KC @ TEN ($8,400)
Patrick Mahomes comes into Week 7 averaging a terrific 28.6 DK points per game, but I think it's fair to say that we haven't seen a true ceiling game out of the KC superstar since his Week 1 outing against Cleveland. This week's matchup against Tennessee possesses all the elements needed for a blow-up game from Mahomes...the matchup carries a Vegas O/U of 57.5 points, the Chiefs are projected for 31.5 points, and we'll see two great offenses against two horrid defenses. The Titans have hemorrhaged points both through the air (27th in Pass Defense DVOA) and overall (24th in Points Allowed), but also boast an explosive offense that should be able to keep pace with Kansas City. It all adds up to tons of fantasy goodness in what's an obvious, but excellent, DFS game environment.
Matthew Stafford - DET @ LAR ($7,100)
Some will probably label this a "revenge" game for Matthew Stafford, but I don't believe that to be the case, as Detroit paid Stafford a truckload of money over the years and the former number-one draft pick gave the downtrodden organization all he had, so there's not really any animosity here. All that said, Stafford, must feel like a man that was paroled from death row now that he's with Sean McVay and this high-powered Rams offense. He's been spectacular with L.A. and heads into Week 7 fresh off a complete destruction of the New York Giants that resulted in a 26.2-point DraftKings day. While Lions HC Dan Campbell seems like a good guy, Detroit has no shot of slowing down Stafford and the Rams offense, with or without the biting of kneecaps, as Campbell's squad ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt (a massive 9.84) to opposing QBs.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 7 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: After a Week 6 slate that was Cheap-RB-A-Palooza, we're back to reality at the position in Week 7. The big question on this slate is "To Derrick Henry or Not To Derrick Henry". He's such an obvious play that I didn't even bother to write him up in this week's article, as his talent, usage, and matchup are all off the charts. My GPP thoughts on King Henry always seem to come down to: "I want to be underweight if he's expected to be extremely popular and overweight if his ownership is under what I feel it should be.". His price tag will likely be a fairly large obstacle on this slate, so I'll keep an eye on ownership as we move closer to Sunday and adjust accordingly.
Darrell Henderson Jr. - DET @ LAR ($6,600)
The aforementioned Matt Stafford and this explosive Rams passing attack is the unit that gets all the attention, but L.A. running back Darrell Henderson Jr. is quietly putting in work. No seriously, he's literally putting in tons of work. Henderson's usage brings to mind the Todd Gurley-era of this Rams team. Over his five healthy games, he's been on the field for 80% of L.A.'s offensive snaps - the third-highest snap share in the NFL at the RB position - and is averaging a whopping 19.4 opportunities per game. With the Rams entering this one as a heavy favorite, Henderson's workload should be substantial, and he will find very little resistance against a Lions defense that has relinquished the most DK points in the NFL to the RB position.
Chuba Hubbard - CAR @ NYG ($6,100)
A lot of my focus on the Week 7 slate is on targeting great players in great game environments. Chuba Hubbard checks absolutely zero of those boxes. However, Hubbard represents a very nice "silver lining" piece in what's otherwise an undesirable DFS spot. His output since Christian McCaffrey's injury has been solid, if unspectacular. However, his mediocre statistical performances have kept his DFS price tag at a very reasonable level for a player that's had opportunity counts of 19/30/15 in three starts since stepping into CMC's role. This week's matchup against the struggling New York Giants represents the best opportunity he's had yet to post a "slate breaking" type of score. New York has allowed the second-most rushing yards in the NFL to opposing backs and is being gashed to the tune of 4.68 yards per carry on the ground. With Panthers QB Sam Darnold appearing to regress over the last couple of weeks, I suspect this Carolina coaching staff will be very content to ride Hubbard in this green light matchup.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 7 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: More of the same at the WR position, as most of the spend-up options are in elite situations, while the mid-tier is filled with players that have cloudier DFS outlooks and value options are extremely few and far between.
Tyreek Hill - KC @ TEN ($8,600)
Yet another obvious, but true smash spot. You guys don't need me to tell you what type of upside Tyreek Hill has - he already has games of 50.6 & 40.1 DK Points through six weeks - but this is just a little reminder that Hill is the ultimate slate breaker. With KC's record surprisingly underwhelming to open the season, they've increasingly relied on The Cheetah in an attempt to right the ship and he has target counts of 12/13/12 over the Chiefs' last three as a result. Matchups don't get any better than what he's facing this week against a banged-up and talent-less Titans secondary. Tennessee ranks last in the NFL in DK Points allowed to opposing WRs, last in receiving yards allowed, and last in receiving TDs allowed. This is an elite setup for Hill and everyone knows it, however, the combination of his high $8.6k price tag and a Questionable tag due to a nagging quad injury will lead to lots of folks talking themselves out of this play, meaning his ownership - whatever it may shake out to be - will likely be lower than it should be.
Calvin Ridley - ATL @ MIA ($6,600)
If I told you before the season started that Calvin Ridley would have one receiving TD and zero 100-yard receiving games through Week 6, you would have told me I was crazy. However, that's where we find ourselves, as both Ridley and this Falcons offense as a whole have underperformed in new Atlanta HC Arthur Smith's system. It doesn't sound very analytical to say that Ridley is simply "due", but all the underlying metrics indicate that a big game is coming. The targets have been there - he's averaging 10.5 per game - and he ranks 10th in the NFL in average Air Yards per game at 113.3. It feels as though this is a terrific breakout spot for Ridley, as he has a season-low $6.6k price tag and draws a Miami secondary that has both Xavien Howard and Byron Jones banged up. Even if Howard and Jones are able to go, the Dolphins have been extremely ineffective at slowing down opposing WRs. They stand 30th in the league in both DK Points allowed to the position and receiving yards allowed.
Marquise Brown - CIN @ BAL ($5,800)
While this matchup looks to be a classic AFC North slugfest, I can't quite shake the feeling that Hollywood Brown is a player that possesses tournament-winning upside at a too-cheap price tag. At $5.8k, Brown is a player with a 13.55 aDOT and has exceeded 100 Air Yards in half of Baltimore's games this season. This is a Ravens offense that is very content to win football games on the ground - as they did last week against a league-worst Chargers run defense - but they might be funneled to the air this week against an improved Bengals defense that stands fourth in the NFL in Run Defense DVOA. So while there are lots of scenarios in which Brown has a middling outing in a knock-down-drag-out affair, there is certainly underlying GPP upside that comes with rostering him at this price point.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 7 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: For the last couple of years we've joked in this article about "The Kelce Rule", which is as follows: "If Travis Kelce is playing on the Main Slate, you roster him.". That rule of thumb can certainly be deployed on this slate, but there are some other interesting players at the TE position in Week 7, so we'll focus on them in this week's writeup.
Darren Waller - PHI @ LV ($6,700)
It's an interesting week at the often-ugly TE position, as I suspect most will either pay up to Travis Kelce or elect to save salary on one of the several (solid) value options, like the TE on the other side of this Philly vs Las Vegas matchup, Dallas Goedert. It leaves Darren Waller floating in something of a no man's land, as his production - outside of a massive Week 1 outing - has yet to consistently reach Travis Kelce levels, while his price tag dwarfs that of the other TEs on the slate. I'm willing to jump into the void here in an attempt to catch Waller at very low ownership in GPPs, as his advanced numbers remain elite and indicate a breakout game is in the pipeline. The Raiders' star ranks first at the TE position in targets per game at 8.8 (he's tied with Kelce), while also grading out atop the position in both total Air Yards (543) and Air Yards per game (90.5). I think we can also expect some positive TD regression to come Waller's way at some point, as he's only found the paint twice this season. It's one of those plays that will either leave you feeling like a genius or an idiot come Sunday evening, but I'm willing to embrace the risk in a Week 7 environment in which TE ownership is going to be very concentrated.
Ricky Seals-Jones - WAS @ GB ($3,700)
While I'm willing to advocate for a play like Darren Waller, I admit that it's impossible to ignore Ricky Seals-Jones and this glaring $3.7k misprice. My boy Thunder Dan correctly highlighted Seals-Jones in this article last week at $3k, and despite producing a 4/58/1 stat line on six targets in Week 6, the Washington TE received just a $700 salary increase for this matchup against Green Bay. The Football Team offense is dealing with a myriad of injuries - RSJ himself is dealing with a quad issue, but is currently expected to play - and Seals-Jone has been forced into playing literally every snap (over the last two weeks he has played 99% & 100% of Washington's offensive snaps). With his price tag and usage, the matchup is almost irrelevant, but I'd label it as "average", with Green Bay's defense grading out in the middle of the pack against the TE position. On a slate where we are starved for salary relief, RSJ stands out as one of the most sensible discount options of the week.
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