Brant's Must-Avoid Draft Picks for 2025 Fantasy Football: 5 Overpriced Veterans

July 5, 2025

RotoBaller's Brant Henson tabs five players he is avoiding at cost in 2025 fantasy football drafts. See which quarterback, running backs, and wide receivers he is fading.

Fantasy football drafting is all about finding value on the board. One player may not be a great third-round pick but could pay off as an incredible sixth-round pick. The goal is to draft as many players who outplay the position in which you drafted them.

With that being said, I am going to discuss five players I am avoiding this fantasy draft season. That does not mean I hate these players; it simply means I would not take them at their current cost because there are reasons to believe they may be overpriced.

While examining current ADPs for the 2025 season, five players stuck out to me as overvalued. Again, I do not dislike these players at a certain cost if they fall on draft boards. However, you should think twice before taking these guys at ADP or reaching above ADP on them.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs | QB6

This one feels like low-hanging fruit. Patrick Mahomes is currently drafted as the QB6, but that is primarily due to name recognition rather than actual statistics over the past two seasons. 

Mahomes was the QB1 in 2022, lighting up scoreboards with a career-high 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. Since then, his numbers have significantly declined as the Chiefs have shifted to a slower-paced offense. Mahomes finished as the QB8 in 2023 and was the QB11 last season. Furthermore, he only finished as a top-10 quarterback in four weeks in 2024.

Patrick Mahomes is at least arguably the NFL's best quarterback, and he's taken his team to three straight Super Bowls, winning two of them. And yet, he's been a disappointment in fantasy leagues lately. Will 2025 be different? pic.twitter.com/XtWEkBrNl3

— Fantasy Index (@FantasyIndex) June 24, 2025

While he has been a consistent bet to put up safe top-20 weekly numbers, that is not what you want out of a quarterback when taking the sixth one off the board. You want a quarterback who can finish as the QB1 overall, not one who is likely going to finish as a low-end QB1. Avoid Mahomes for higher-upside players at his current cost.

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles | RB2

You may be shocked to find Saquon Barkley’s name on this list after his record-setting season. Barkley finished as the RB1 in fantasy, which history indicates will not happen again. There has not been a player to finish as the RB1 overall in back-to-back seasons since LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2006 and 2007.

Now, that stat may not be enough to make you fade Barkley as a top-3 pick. After all, he just signed an extension that made him the highest-paid running back in the NFL. He is still behind the mighty Eagles offensive line, and still has the rushing threat of Jalen Hurts to help create space. 

While the situation is still ideal for the talented running back, he touched the ball 482 times last season, including the playoffs. History also indicates that touching the ball nearly 500 times is unsustainable, as any running back who has touched the ball 400 or more times since 2000 has experienced a sharp decline in production the following season.

Not a single one of the 11 running backs finished as an RB1 the season after touching the ball 400 times.

Additionally, people seem to have forgotten about Barkley’s injury history. He missed 20 games from 2019 to 2021 due to various injuries. Projecting injuries is not the best practice, as an injury can happen to anyone. However, the combination of a very heavy workload with an injury-riddled past does not bode well. Barkley went in Round 2 in drafts last season due to injury concerns.

I would take a safer player with my top-5 pick.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | RB10

Bucky Irving won leagues for many fantasy managers in 2024 after exploding down the back half of the season. He was hyper-efficient on his touches, running for 5.4 yards per carry and gaining 7.5 yards per target. The Oregon product became a fantasy football darling and is now going off the boards as a top-10 running back.

Let’s not let the hype get too out of line. Irving did explode over the last seven weeks of the season, but four of those seven games were against teams that ranked in the top five in worst defenses against opposing running backs. He only played against one top-15 defense (Los Angeles Chargers), and they held him to his lowest fantasy output during the seven weeks aside from a game that he left with an injury.

Keep in mind that this is still a committee backfield as well. Irving only carried 32% of the team’s rushing attempts after the bye, with Rachaad White taking 29% and Sean Tucker taking 10%. Offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard has mentioned that this will remain a committee, and it will be challenging to take White off the field on passing downs due to his pass-blocking ability.

While Irving won leagues last season with his efficient running, think twice before nabbing him in the second round of fantasy drafts this season.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars | WR8

Another 2024 fantasy darling, Brian Thomas Jr., finished as the WR4 overall in 2024 and is now being drafted as the WR8. On paper, that appears to be a good value. But when you look at the situation, WR8 seems a little high.

Thomas was on track for a solid rookie season before Jacksonville’s Week 12 bye, but he made a name for himself in the final six weeks of the year. Thomas averaged a whopping 98.8 yards per game and scored five touchdowns in six games, winning leagues for those who took a flier on him last draft season. 

BRIAN THOMAS JR. 15.5 FANTASY POINT TOUCHDOWN 😱 pic.twitter.com/C18qdKGuoC

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 6, 2024

However, when you look at Jacksonville’s status, it makes so much sense. Point one, it was banged up. Targets number two and three, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, were not playing. That left Brenton Strange and Parker Washington as the next-best options in the passing game. Thomas sucked up all the targets in that situation. 

Point two, Trevor Lawrence was not playing. While Mac Jones was hyper-fixated on Thomas when he had no other receiving options, Lawrence tended to spread the ball around more when he was under center earlier in the season. Thomas was having a good rookie season, but he wasn't crushing it the way he did down the stretch. 

Point three, the Jaguars were not competitive and were losing most of those games. Rather than trying to chew the clock at any point, they were airing the ball out, trying to keep up. With a new regime and some new faces on the team, they may not constantly be behind this year, which would lead to fewer target opportunities.

Travis Hunter was drafted second overall to be more than just a cornerback. He will play offense, and he very well could end up as the top target in this offense over Thomas. Everything fell right for Thomas to have the monster season he did as a rookie, and it would need to go perfectly again for him to finish as a top-8 receiver.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions | TE4

Sam LaPorta was the top tight end drafted a season ago after finishing as the TE1 as a rookie, but he came crashing back down to reality in year two as he finished as the TE8, a disappointment for those who spent early draft capital on him.

While he did get it going at the end of the season, LaPorta averaged only 2.8 targets per game over the first six weeks of the 2024 season and scored just one touchdown. He was performing so poorly that fantasy managers were dropping him. That stretch of poor performance was not enough to knock his ADP below TE4, as he is still routinely a fifth- or sixth-round pick in fantasy drafts this season.

At cost, look elsewhere. Detroit lost its play-caller in Ben Johnson and returns Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick, and Kalif Raymond, as well as trading three third-round picks to acquire the sure-handed Isaac TeSlaa, who could compete with LaPorta for a chain-moving role and red-zone targets.

LaPorta will have some spike weeks, but expecting consistency like he provided as a rookie is too much to ask.

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