RADIO
Fantasy football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em and lineup advice for all 2025-26 Divisional Round matchups. Andy Smith analyzes in-depth matchups via game-by-game breakdowns.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to the next round of the NFL postseason. If you are new here, this matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em article will look at the best and worst matchups of the week, diving into each game on the slate.
While standard fantasy leagues are complete, managers can still join several playoff competitions, like the FFPC Playoff Challenge II and DFS competitions, to continue playing the great game of fantasy football.
Who should you look to get in your starting lineup in the Divisional Round? Who is best left on the bench? Let's dive in!
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Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -1.5
Matchups We Love:
RB RJ Harvey
This game could be a defensive battle, which opens the door for RJ Harvey to lead the defense. Harvey will take on a Buffalo defense that is allowing the eighth-most PPR points to opposing RBs this season. Last weekend, despite taking the loss, Travis Etienne Jr. had his way against this defense, totaling 67 rushing yards (on 10 carries) and adding five catches for 39 yards and a score.
Expect the Broncos to lean on their rookie RB to keep Josh Allen and company off the field. Since Week 13, Harvey has seen 14.2 attempts and 4.3 targets per game.
Matchups We Hate:
RB James Cook
James Cook had a tough showing last week, totaling a mere 7.1 PPR points against a tough Jacksonville rushing defense, and he will not find it much easier against the Broncos. The Jaguars were allowing the third-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs and completely shut down Cook. Now Cook will line up against the sport's best rushing defense, in terms of PPR points allowed. While his volume will remain high, his ceiling will be capped.
It may be best to pivot off Cook in DFS tournaments.
Over his last six games, Franklin is averaging just 7.6 PPR points per game. During this stretch, Franklin has caught only 3.2 passes per game and is seeing his role gradually decrease. This weekend, he will line up against a tougher Buffalo secondary that has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points to opposing wideouts.
QB Bo Nix
As noted when discussing Harvey, expect the Broncos to lean heavily on their ground game to keep Allen off the field. Given that Buffalo has struggled to fend off the run (allowing a high 136.2 rushing yards per game), Nix will likely take the back seat for most of the offensive game plan. Over his last five, Nix has fallen under the 225.0 passing-yard mark in three games and is averaging 21.2 PPR points per game.
While his rushing upside raises his high floor, don't expect him to hit his ceiling, facing a Buffalo defense that has done well shutting down opposing passing attacks, allowing the second-fewest PPR points to QBs.
Other Matchups:
While Sutton has just as difficult a matchup as Franklin does, his recent usage puts him into the high-end WR2 tier this weekend. Sutton has seen double-digit targets in all but one game since Week 14. During this stretch, the veteran has averaged 13.2 PPR points per game. If this game opens up, expect Sutton to see another heavy workload.
Buffalo's top wideout will face a daunting secondary, but his volume keeps him a low-end WR2 consideration for DFS. Shakir brought in all 12 of his targets during their victory over the Jaguars, and given the current stats of the Buffalo WR room, if the Broncos put points on the board, Allen will lean on Shakir.
QB Josh Allen
Allen is a set-it-and-forget QB1 this weekend. While he could see his upside somewhat limited by a tough Denver defense, his rushing upside puts him right alongside the top projected QBs of the week, like Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. Last weekend, Allen showcased his rushing ability, tallying 33 yards and two scores on 11 carries to go along with 273 yards and a score through the air.
JOSH ALLEN‼️
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/B8JcEa7GXl
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 11, 2026
Allen is worth paying up for in DFS, but managers should not expect another 30.0+ PPR point showing facing a Denver defense that is allowing the third-fewest overall PPG.
Dalton Kincaid has been dealing with a knee injury throughout most of the second half but was able to turn in a strong showing last weekend, catching three of his five targets for 28 yards and a score. Through 12 games, Kincaid has scored a career-best five touchdowns on only 39 receptions. He remains a high-risk TE selection in DFS but does carry enough upside given his typical role in the red zone.
Injuries:
- Tyrell Shavers (knee) - OUT
- J.K. Dobbins (knee) - OUT
- Curtis Samuel (elbow) - questionable
- Ty Johnson (ankle) - questionable
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -7.5
Matchups We Love:
Both Seattle RBs will find themselves in the "love" section. Walker totaled 87 yards on 16 carries during their Week 18 meeting and was effective as a receiver, catching all four of his targets for another 36 yards. While he will likely split work with Charbonnet, the 49ers have allowed the 10th-most PPR points to opposing RBs, opening the door for a busy showing for both options.
In their Week 18 title game for the NFC West against the 49ers, Charbonnet looked just as dominant as Walker, tallying 74 yards and scoring on 17 carries while adding three receptions (on four targets) for 23 yards. Over his two meetings against the 49ers, Charbonnet has punched in two scores and tallied 121 rushing yards. Given that Seattle enters as high favorites, expect them to lean on their two-headed monster, making both solid RB2s for DFS.
The 23-year-old has been locked-in WR1 all season and possesses one of the safest floors and ceilings in the Divisional Round. Smith-Njigba will face a 49ers secondary in which he caught nine passes for 124 yards in Week 1 and six of eight passes for another 84 yards in Week 18. Overall, Smith-Njigba has seen a hefty 9.5 targets per game, giving him an elite opportunity share. He is a top option on this weekend's slate to occupy your WR1 position.
The 29-year-old had a disappointing showing for the Seahawks in Week 18, totaling just 11.7 PPR points. However, he bounced back in a big way in their upset victory over the Eagles, scoring two receiving touchdowns and finishing his day with 29.4 PPR points. While the Seahawks have shut down opposing RBs, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points, McCaffrey's high-volume role keeps him in high-end RB1 territory.
Oh my!! The #49ers go with the trickery — and it’s Jauan Jennings throwing to Christian McCaffrey for the TD. pic.twitter.com/xPuiQ6Ji9A
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 12, 2026
With George Kittle (Achilles) out and potentially Ricky Pearsall (knee) as well, McCaffrey could very well lead this team in both rushing and receiving.
Matchups We Hate:
Jennings has been Brock Purdy's go-to WR1 for most of the season, but is coming off a quiet string of showings. In their Week 18 loss to the Seahawks, Jennings caught a mere four passes for 35 yards. Last Sunday, Jennings caught just one pass for 45 yards, but he did throw a TD pass to salvage his day. Facing a Seattle secondary that has held him to only 51 yards in two games this season makes him a high-risk WR3.
The 31-year-old led the air attack in their victory over the Eagles, catching six of his seven targets for 111 yards and a score. While he may carry some upside as a valuable play in DFS with Kittle on the shelf, his matchup facing a potent secondary that is allowing the fourth-feast PPR points to opposing WRs makes him a risky play.
Prior to this outing, Robinson caught only 14 passes over his last nine games.
QB Brock Purdy
Purdy had mixed results in their victory over the Eagles, going 18-for-31 with 262 yards, two scores, and two interceptions. He is now slated to face a Seattle secondary that gave him serious trouble just two weeks ago. In Week 18, Purdy went 19-for-27 against them with just 127 yards and no scores. When looking at the available QBs, Purdy has the lowest floor given the matchup and likely the lowest ceiling.
Managers should pivot to an alternative QB in their DFS tournament and look to save salary elsewhere.
Other Matchups:
QB Sam Darnold
Darnold is a game manager who carries a limited fantasy ceiling. During their Week 18 victory over the 49ers, Darnold leaned heavily on the ground game as he totaled just 198 yards through the air, most of which went to Smith-Njigba. Since Week 13, Darnold is averaging a low 210.5 passing yards per game with a 6:4 TD:INT. He is a low-end QB2 on the slate, similar to Purdy, despite facing a suspect San Francisco secondary.
Darnold was added to the injury report on Thursday with an oblique injury, but is expected to play.
WR Cooper Kupp
Kupp has a solid matchup on paper, facing a San Francisco secondary that has allowed the 13th-most PPR points to opposing WRs. Unfortunately, Kupp has been unable to draw consistent targets in a run-heavy offense. Over his last eight games, Kupp has caught a low 2.6 receptions per game and has only found the back of the end zone once. He is a high-risk FLEX option in DFS competitions.
TE AJ Barner
Like Kupp, Barner's usage makes him tough to trust, but he does carry some sneaky upside, especially at a thin TE position this weekend. Barner has found the back of the end zone seven times this season and has brought in 52 receptions for 519 yards. Over his last three, Barner has eclipsed the double-digit PPR point mark twice but fell short in Week 18 against the 49ers, who held him to just two receptions for 14 yards.
However, given his usage in the red zone and facing a defense that allowed two touchdowns to Dallas Goedert last weekend (one rushing, one receiving). Barner has valid upside worth targeting in DFS to save salary.
TE Jake Tonges
The other tight end in this matchup also carries some underrated upside. Serving as the Kittle replacement throughout the season, Tonges has turned in several solid fantasy showings, averaging 12.3 PPR points per game in the contests in which he has seen at least 44 offensive snaps. This weekend, he could emerge as the team's No. 2 pass catcher alongside McCaffery, facing a Seattle defense that, while elite, has struggled to defend opposing TEs, allowing the 11th-most PPR points to the position.
Injuries:
- George Kittle (Achilles) - OUT
- Ricky Pearsall (knee) - questionable
- Sam Darnold (oblique) - questionable
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Games
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Spread: NE - 3
Matchups We Love:
Nonte
Matchups We Hate:
QB Drake Maye
Maye had an underwhelming playoff debut could run into even more trouble facing the Houston defense. In their victory over the Chargers, Maye went 17-for-29 with 268 yards and one score. On the ground, he added 66 yards. This weekend, he will face a Texans defense that is allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points to opposing QBs.
Maye carries QB1 upside this weekend, but does not possess the same upside given his matchup. He is a potential landmine in DFS.
The rookie RB has flashed immense upside in the second half, but took a back seat in their Wild Card victory. In this game, Rhamondre Stevenson dominated the backfield as Henderson logged only nine carries for 27 yards with just one reception (on one target). Given his current usage, Henderson is a high-risk, high-upside FLEX option facing a Houston defense that is allowing the eighth-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs.
WR Stefon Diggs
Diggs struggled to find his footing last Sunday night, catching only two of his five targets for a mere 16 yards. Since Week 12 (last eight games), Diggs has fallen under the 8.0 PPR point mark in all but two games, despite seeing 5.0 targets per game. Do not expect him to turn the corner facing a Houston secondary that just held DK Metcalf to two catches and 42 yards.
Boutte was more involved in their Wild Card victory compared to Diggs, catching four passes for 66 yards, but he is still not a recommended play in DFS or playoff competitions. On Sunday, he will line up against a Houston secondary that has allowed the third-fewest PPR points to opposing WRs. Boutte is averaging only 5.5 PPR points per game over the last seven contests.
QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud was not asked to do much in their victory over the Steelers as he completed only 21 of his 32 passes for 250 yards and a 1:1 TD:INT. Since Week 13, Stroud has only averaged 227.0 passing yards per game and attempted 30.4 passes per game. Additionally, he could be without his top pass-catcher, Nico Collins (concussion), further limiting his upside.
He is not worth viewing as a contrarian play for DFS, facing a New England defense that just held Justin Herbert to 159 yards last weekend.
RB Nick Chubb
With Woody Marks dominating the backfield, the veteran took the backseat. On Monday night, Chubb logged just 10 carries for 48 yards and did not see a target. Given his usage and matchup against a tough New England front, which has held opposing RBs to the fifth-fewest PPR points this season, makes him a must-sit in all formats.
Other Matchups:
While the matchup is tough on paper, given his usage and involvement last weekend, Stevenson carries solid RB2 value this weekend. In Sunday's victory, Stevenson took 10 carries for 53 and brought in three of four targets for another 75 yards. Since Week 13, Stevenson has scored double-digit PPR points in each game and averaged 19.3 PPR points per game over this stretch.
Despite facing a tougher Houston defense, his current role as the "1A" in the backfield makes him worth putting in your lineup.
RB Woody Marks
Woody Marks carries some serious momentum into the Divisional Round. On Monday night, the rookie posted the first 100-yard rushing game of his debut season as he totaled 112 yards and a score against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Similar to Stevenson, while his matchup on paper is not ideal, his usage keeps him in the RB2 range.
Over his last three games, Marks has logged at least 19 carries in all but one and seen at least two targets in two games. If he can find the back of the end zone, he can flirt with RB1 production.
TE Hunter Henry
The 31-year-old is a bit banged up with a knee injury, but is trending towards playing as he logged a full practice on Thursday. Last weekend, Henry was one of the lone bright spots in the receiving department in New England, as he brought in three of his five targets for 64 yards and a score. Since Week 16, Henry has been a force in the red zone for Maye.
He has caught three TDs in four games while averaging 13.8 PPR points per game.
HUNTER. HENRY. 💪
He gives us the first TD of the game against his former squad. pic.twitter.com/sKHtXJCYJm
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 12, 2026
As noted for Diggs and Boutte, the Houston secondary is elite and could contain Henry. However, given his scoring upside, he is a fine TE1 for DFS formats, especially if you choose to fade the expensive options like Colston Loveland.
Jayden Higgins saw his fantasy stock increase in Weeks 17 and 18 when he totaled 111 yards and two scores on just four receptions. Even with Collins missing most of Monday's game, Higgins only brought in three of his four targets for a mere 39 yards. If Collins were to be ruled out, Higgins could see sneaky upside as a FLEX option in DFS, but does carry some risk given his inconsistent usage.
The other WR who could benefit from Collins's absence was Kirk. Kirk led the Houston receiving room on Monday, bringing in eight of his nine targets for 144 yards and a score. If Collins is eventually ruled out, Kirk would project as a high-end WR3/FLEX option given his expected role as the team's WR1. If Collins were to play, Kirk would fall into the low-end FLEX territory.
Prior to Monday's breakout showing, Kirk caught just 18 total passes over his last 10 games.
Schultz would see his floor raised if Collins were to sit out. Even with Collins set up, Schultz holds solid value as an all-around TE1 and a viable contrarian in DFS tournaments, similar to Henry. While Schultz only caught three passes for 12 yards last weekend, his target share remained stable. Since Week 9, Schultz has seen at least four targets in each game and averaged 6.4 targets per game over this stretch.
He could lead the Houston passing attack, featuring a New England defense that has allowed the 13th-most PPR points to opposing TEs.
Injuries:
- Nico Collins (concussion) - trending towards sitting out
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Spread: LAR -3.5
Matchups We Love:
QB Matthew Stafford
Despite battling through a finger injury, Stafford turned in another stellar performance, showing in their victory over the Panthers. In this game, Stafford went 24-for-42 with 303 yards, three scores, and one turnover. Over the last six, Stafford has averaged 27.7 PPR points per game and has totaled 17 passing touchdowns.
Facing a Chicago defense that allowed 323 yards and four scores to Jordan Love last weekend makes him a high-end QB1 on Sunday.
WR Puka Nacua
Stafford's top wideout, Puka Nacua, continued his incredible season in the Wild Card Round. Facing the Panthers, Nacua did it all, scoring, catching 10 of his 18 targets for 111 yards and a score. With his legs, he took three carries for 14 yards and his second score of the contest. He has seen double-digit targets in every contest since Week 14 and averaged 31.1 PPR points per game over this stretch.
There is no player in fantasy with a safer floor and higher ceiling than Nacua. He is a lineup lock in all DFS contests, facing a Bears defense that is allowing the sixth-most PPR points to opposing WRs.
Adams had a quiet return in the Wild Card Round after missing three games with a hamstring injury. Despite seeing 13 targets, Adams caught just five of them for 72 yards. However, given his matchup against a struggling Chicago secondary, expect Adams to bounce back in a big way. If you choose to pivot off Nacua in DFS, Adams becomes a must-start.
Given the matchup, it is hard not to find the DFS salary to lock both players in as your WR1 and WR2.
WR DJ Moore
Even with Rome Odunze back in action, DJ Moore was still the lead WR in the offense. During their thrilling victory over the Packers, Moore brought in six of his seven targets for 64 yards and a score. Since Week 15 (the last five games), Moore has totaled over 17.0 PPR points in three of the five games. Expect him to make it four out of six in a potential shootout against the Rams.
The Rams enter the Divisional Round, allowing the 10th-most PPR points to opposing WRs.
The 21-year-old has seen his role grow immensely over the stretch and is looking like a sure-fire TE1 heading into 2026. In the Wild Card Round, Loveland led the way, bringing in eight of his 15 targets for 137 yards. While the Rams are near the middle of the pack in terms of PPR points allowed to TEs, Loveland's recent usage catapults him into the "love" section.
Over his last three games, Loveland has seen 38 total targets and tallied 322 yards and two touchdowns.
Matchups We Hate:
The only player to hold off from inserting into your DFS lineup in this match would be Kyle Monangai. Monangai has shown flashes as a rookie but was poorly evaluated as the clear RB2 last weekend behind D'Andre Swift. He took only eight carries and tallied 27 yards. Facing a Rams defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs makes Monangai a high-risk play.
Other Matchups:
Kyren Williams had the slight lead in carries (compared to Corum's 11) as he took 13 attempts for 57 yards. Through the air, Williams brought in both targets for 128 yards and a touchdown. While the Rams have transitioned into a pass-happy offense, Williams can still find success, especially near the red zone. While he has a slightly tougher matchup against the Bears, his scoring upside keeps him firmly in the RB2 range.
RB Blake Corum
Corum took only 11 carries and added 45 yards, and brought in both targets for 13. While he did not find the end zone like Williams, he continued to showcase his efficiency as a ball-carrier. Since Week 13, Corum has posted an elite 6.1 YPC and remains a touchdown-dependent RB2 for fantasy purposes this weekend. If this game becomes a shootout, Corum's floor will be much lower.
After a slow start, Caleb Williams and the entire Chicago offense flipped the script in the fourth quarter. Williams would finish his first career playoff game with 361 yards, two scores, and two interceptions. Since Week 14, Williams has thrown at least two passing touchdowns in each contest and averaged a solid 363.5 passing yards per game.
His matchup against a tougher Rams defense (allowing the 14th-fewest PPR points to opposing QBs) puts him in the mid-tier matchups section. DFS managers looking to pick from Stafford should consider targeting Williams instead, as this game features two potent offensive attacks.
Swift led the backfield on Saturday night, taking 13 carries for 54 yards and a score and bringing in both targets for another 38 yards. Seeing Swift emerge as the preferred RB1 over Monangai gives him RB2 value, but his matchup against the Rams makes him a bit tough to trust. The Rams have surrendered the 11th-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs and just 110 total rushing yards per game in the regular season.
His usage should provide a safe floor, but his upside will be capped.
WR Rome Odunze
Odunze made his return last Saturday and saw a heavy workload (six targets) but managed to bring in only two of them for 44 yards. Despite the crowded nature of his WR room, Odunze faces a struggling Rams secondary in a projected high-scoring affair (48.5 O/U) and has the potential to return to his early-season form.
From Weeks 1 through 8, Odunze was averaging 15.5 PPR points per game. If Williams needs to push the ball downfield, Odunze could be primed for a massive bounce-back outing.
Burden saw his fantasy value take a massive step forward down the stretch, but like Odunze, could be tough to trust on Sunday given the crowded WR room. On Saturday night, Burden was targeted seven times, but only brought in three of them for a mere 42 yards. His upside is immense, but he remains a risky FLEX option given the numerous weapons Williams has at his disposal.
If this game lives up to the projected high-scoring affair, Burden could be a weekly-winning play in DFS.
The 27-year-old brought in the game-winning score in the final minute, pushing the Rams to the Divisional Round. Since Week 10, Parkinson has been a force in the red zone, scoring nine TDs (in 10 games) with 37.4 yards per game. While Adams and Nauca will rack up the yards, Parkinson has made his mark in the red zone.
He possesses some risk given his dependency on touchdowns, but his red zone usage suggests he is a viable end TE1 in the same range as Schultz and Henry.
What. A. CATCH. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/tNicwWNLS4
— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2026
Injuries:
- None
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